Lithium Slumps 25% in China on Fears Over Battery Demand Growth
Chinese lithium futures have lost about a quarter of their value this month as concerns grow over whether battery demand can absorb the industry's strong production.
中国碳酸锂期货价格9月累计下跌四分之一，市场日益担忧电池需求能否消化行业的高产量。
The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's contract for lithium carbonate has fallen below 120,000 yuan per tonne from more than 160,000 yuan at the start of September.
截至9月30日收盘，广州期货交易所碳酸锂期货价格已从9月初的每吨16万元以上跌至12万元以下。
A private inventory survey earlier this month also pointed to much larger stockpiles than expected, triggering debate across the industry and renewed scrutiny of underlying demand.
本月早些时候，一项调查显示，碳酸锂库存规模远高于预期，引发行业争论，也促使市场重新审视实际需求状况。
A sluggish Chinese EV market and a widening gap between energy-storage battery-cell production and actual installations have weighed on the outlook, said Jordan Roberts, a senior analyst at Project Blue. Expectations of improved lithium supply in 2027 have also affected prices, he said.
咨询公司Project Blue高级分析师Jordan Roberts表示，中国电动车市场表现疲弱，储能电芯产量与实际装机量之间的差距不断扩大，令市场前景承压。他说，对2027年锂供应增加的预期也影响了价格。
"That said, the underlying supply-demand balance still points to monthly deficits for the rest of the year, which should mean continued inventory drawdown, albeit at a slower pace, offering some support to prices," he said.
“不过，从供需基本面看，今年剩余各月仍预计存在供应缺口。这意味着库存有望继续下降，尽管去库存速度会有所放缓，但仍能为价格提供一定支撑。”
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