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NEWS TODAY
经合组织（OECD）发布 2026 年二季度初步经济数据，墨西哥经济环比走势实现修复调整，季度增速由一季度萎缩 0.3% 回升至环比增长 1.4%，在 G20 经济体中复苏表现亮眼。同期 G20 整体经济增速放缓至 0.7%，较 2026 年一季度小幅回落，全球经济体整体增长节奏有所放缓。
According to provisional estimates released by the OECD, Mexico’s economic growth adjusted positively in the second quarter of 2026. Its quarterly growth rose to 1.4% after a 0.3% contraction in the first quarter, showing remarkable recovery momentum among G20 economies. Meanwhile, the overall G20 economic growth cooled to 0.7%, slightly lower than the level recorded in the first quarter of 2026.
经济数据高度吻合，产业结构特征鲜明
Consistent economic data and distinct industrial structure
墨西哥国家统计地理研究所发布的数据与经合组织测算高度一致。2026 年二季度，墨西哥经济摆脱一季度收缩态势，实现环比复苏，延续同比正增长趋势。2026 年 4 至 6 月，墨西哥经济总增加值达 34.79 万亿比索，服务业与商业为核心支柱，贡献 63.4% 经济产出；工业产业占比 32.6%。
Official data from INEGI is highly consistent with OECD estimates. In the second quarter of 2026, Mexico’s economy rebounded quarter-on-quarter after a contraction in the first quarter and maintained positive year-on-year growth. From April to June 2026, Mexico’s gross value added reached 34.79 trillion Mexican pesos. Services and commerce dominated the economic output with a proportion of 63.4%, while industrial activities accounted for 32.6%.
增长结构具备阶段性特征，多维度支撑经济运行
Phased growth structure supports overall economic operation
2026 年二季度，墨西哥经济同比增长 2.1%，农业增产、社会福利扶持及最低工资调整有效带动居民消费复苏，为本季度经济增长提供坚实支撑。从经济结构来看，私人投资持续调整，呈现阶段性偏弱态势，是当前经济运行的主要特征之一。本轮经济增长主要依托贸易流通与公共消费拉动，增长动力结构具备明显阶段性特点，整体经济运行呈现结构性分化格局。
Mexico’s economy achieved a 2.1% year-on-year growth in Q2 2026, supported by robust agricultural output and recovering household consumption driven by social welfare policies and minimum-wage adjustments. In terms of economic structure, private investment is undergoing continuous adjustment with relatively weak short-term performance, representing a key feature of current economic operations. Driven mainly by trade activities and public consumption, the current economic growth shows obvious structural characteristics and differentiated industrial performance.
机构预测存在差异，贸易环境影响长期预期
Divergent forecasts affected by external trade environment
依托二季度良好经济表现，多家国际机构更新了墨西哥 2026 年全年经济增长预期，不同机构测算口径与预判角度不同，市场整体预期存在合理差异。经合组织、墨西哥央行、世界银行及墨西哥官方分别给出不同年度增长预判，反映出市场对经济后续走势的多元判断。当前美墨加协定谈判持续推进，贸易政策环境的不确定性，是影响企业投资决策与出口节奏、左右年度经济走势的重要外部因素。
Driven by the solid Q2 economic performance, multiple international institutions have updated their full-year growth forecasts for Mexico in 2026. Differences exist among institutional predictions due to varied statistical standards and judgment perspectives. Forecasts from the OECD, Banxico, the World Bank and the Mexican government reflect diversified market expectations. The ongoing USMCA renegotiation and uncertain trade environment continue to influence corporate investment decisions and export performance, acting as key external factors affecting Mexico’s annual economic outlook.