今年重卡行业的发展轨迹，在政策调整与销售数据的双重印证下愈发清晰，一系列积极变化正为产业链上下游带来新的机遇。
Against the dual backdrop of policy adjustments and sales data verification, the development trajectory of the heavy-duty truck industry has become increasingly clear this year. A series of positive changes are creating new opportunities for both upstream and downstream sectors of the industrial chain.
政策革新：以旧换新政策释放多重信号
Policy Adjustments: Multiple Signals from the Trade-in Policy
在年初，三部委敲定 2025 年中重卡以旧换新补贴规则，随后各地配套细则于 5 月底前全部落地，政策效力开始集中显现。与 2024 年政策相比，新规则有三处关键突破：
取消 “柴油” 限制，天然气中重卡被纳入报废及新购补贴范畴，为该品类打开增长空间；
补贴范围延伸至国四排放标准营运货车，响应了扩大老旧车辆淘汰范围的要求；
允许报废期限不足 1 年的老旧营运货车申领新购补贴，降低了更新门槛。
Earlier this year, three ministries and commissions finalized the subsidy rules for the trade-in of medium and heavy-duty trucks in 2025. Subsequent local supporting measures were fully implemented by the end of May, enabling the policy effects to start emerging in a concentrated manner. Compared with the 2024 policy, the new rules have made three key breakthroughs:
The "diesel-only" restriction has been lifted, with natural gas-fueled medium and heavy-duty trucks now included in the scope of scrapping and new purchase subsidies, thus opening up growth space for this category;
The subsidy scope has been expanded to cover operating trucks that meet National IV emission standards, responding to the requirement of expanding the phase-out of old vehicles;
Old operating trucks with a remaining service life of less than 1 year are now eligible to apply for new purchase subsidies, lowering the threshold for fleet renewal.
市场数据：销量结构呈现鲜明分化
Market Data: A Distinct Differentiation in Sales Structure
政策驱动下，重卡市场销量整体上扬，但不同品类表现差异显著：
上半年累计销量达 53.9 万辆，同比增长 7%，打破传统淡季规律；
6 月单月销量 9.8 万辆，同比增幅 37%，环比提升 10%，创下年内阶段性高点；
新能源重卡成为最大亮点：6 月销量 1.80 万辆，同比激增 158%，环比增长 19%，连续 25 个月保持行业增速领先；
传统柴油重卡贡献主要增量，而天然气重卡因油气价差收窄，同比下降超 22%，环比亦有回落。
Driven by policies, overall sales in the heavy-duty truck market have risen, but performance varies significantly across different categories:
Cumulative sales in the first half of the year reached 539,000 units, a 7% year-on-year increase, breaking the traditional off-season pattern;
June sales hit 98,000 units, up 37% year-on-year and 10% month-on-month, marking a periodic high so far this year;
New energy heavy-duty trucks have emerged as the biggest highlight: 18,000 units were sold in June, surging 158% year-on-year and growing 19% month-on-month. They have maintained the industry’s leading growth rate for 25 consecutive months;
Traditional diesel heavy-duty trucks have been the main driver of growth. In contrast, natural gas heavy-duty trucks saw a year-on-year decline of over 22% (with a month-on-month drop as well), due to the narrowing gap between oil and gas prices.
随着终端置换需求集中释放，叠加渠道库存连续 3 个月去化，三季度重卡批发销量有望展现更强增速。基于 2024 年三季度的低基数，今年同期同比增速将持续走高，“淡季不淡” 态势有望延续。
在政策与市场的双重推动下，商用车进出口领域正迎来新的发展窗口。湖北三环国际将依托在商用车及零部件出海领域的资源与经验，紧跟市场节奏，搭建高效的跨境贸易桥梁。
As end-user replacement demand is released in a concentrated way—combined with three consecutive months of sustained inventory destocking in distribution channels—wholesale sales of heavy-duty trucks are expected to grow more strongly in the third quarter. Benefiting from the low comparison base in Q3 2024, the year-on-year growth rate for the same period this year will continue to rise, and the trend of "no traditional off-season" is likely to persist.
Driven by both policy support and market dynamics, the import and export sector of commercial vehicles is entering a new development window. Hubei Tri-Ring International company, leveraging its resources and experience in commercial vehicle and parts exports, will keep pace with market trends and build an efficient cross-border trade bridge.
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