![The new conglomerates新巨头，老毛病？[E介俗人][经济学人](伪)精读2022.11.05](https://cdn.10100.com/user/361140706587ca5604f53973c607a0f7_180x.png)
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本文是《经济学人》2022-11-02期Business板块的一篇文章。
【E介俗人】
在2022-11-05期《经济学人》的商业板块中，一篇讲述美国科技巨头面临盈利、多元化等等的挑战的问题。
在此之前，我们不妨一起来思考：
1. 巨头有多少种表达方法？
2. What are the twin engines that have propelled the modern economy over the past few decades?
3. What is automatic disciplining mechanism for fund's managers?
The new conglomerates
Big tech and private equity are suffering from an old disease?
新巨头，老毛病？
1 Conglomerates could hardly be less fashionable. The diversified industrial empires of old are taught as casestudies in underperformance, misaligned management incentives and poor capital allocation. Bosses fear that a “conglomerate discount”—the difference between the market value of a firm and the hypothetical value of its constituent parts—will invite activist investors to agitate for divestments. Focus is now the idée fixe of industrial organisation.
1. 第一段第一句，作者就点名了本文的重点：大集团，大巨头现在已经不流行啦。后面一句进一步解释为什么：你看，这些业绩表现不好，激励措施有失偏颇和差劲的资源分配能力的巨头们，都被写进商学院的case，作为案例分析了。
2. conglomerate discount：多元化折价/集团化折价，后面第一个破折号里面的内容为插入语，对这个概念进行了解释。大概意思就是指集团化企业的市场价值往往低于所估计出来的各子公司的市场价值之和。
3. 第二个破折号才是这句话的谓语动词所在，同样也解释了会产生什么问题和后果：吸引来投机者进行捣乱。
4. Agitate: to move with an irregular, rapid, or violent action v.搅动，煽动 常与against搭配
5. Divestments: To deprive, as of rights or property; dispossess n.转让股份;撤销投资
6. idée fixe: an idea that dominates one's mind especially for a prolonged period; OBSESSION 固定观念
7. 在前面提及业绩不好，怕投资者撤资等等后，作者最后把话题聚焦到了一个点：组织架构。在下一段中，主要围绕该点进行阐述。
2 Few were surprised when General Electric (GE), a poster-child for expansioninduced destruction of shareholder wealth, announced plans to break in three in November 2021. This unravelling, which is likely to be completed in 2024, is far from novel. Johnson & Johnson, 3M and Kellogg are all in the middle of breaking up. Germany’s Thyssenkrupp and Siemens have both recently completed hulking divestitures. Toshiba, a Japanese industrial giant, narrowly avoided a breakup earlier this year. The conglomerate has proved more resilient in the developing world. But even there some empires are under attack. In China, for example, Fosun, an acquisitive globetrotting group, is hawking off assets in order to tackle its crippling debt pile (see article on subsequent page).
8. Poster-child: A person who is a prominent example or type of something: 典型案例
9. Unravelling: to disengage or separate the threads of : DISENTANGLE 解开，拆散，松开; 解体;
10. Hulking: heavy and clumsy 大而笨重的
11. Divestitures: The sale, liquidation, or spinoff of a corporate division or subsidiary. 剥离
12. Globetrotting: a person who travels widely 漫游家，环球旅行者
13. hawking off: hawk做名词是鹰; 隼这类动物；做动词时用法比较多。在此，hawking off 意思是沿街叫卖，兜售等
14. 第二段主要是对organisation进行大量的举例说明。通过不同的例子，说各巨头均已经或准备开始拆分。
3 Even as some old strains of conglomeritis are in remission, however, new ones have emerged. Public and private markets have put their faith—and capital—in sprawling empires built around the twin engines that have propelled the modern economy over the past few decades: digital technology and cheap debt. A fifth of the market value of the S&P 500 index of big American firms sits in five giant technology companies—Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta and Microsoft—which have spent a part of their profits chasing diversification (see chart 1 on next page). Simultaneously, low interest rates and an explosion in the assets managed by privateequity firms such as Apollo, Blackstone and KKR have created vast and diversified investment portfolios of controlling interests in firms: buy-out barons spent more than $1.1trn globally in 2021 alone.
15. Remission n. 缓解; 减刑; (重病的)缓解期; 减轻期; 减少服刑时间; (应付费用的)减少; 免除; 与emerged相对应。
16. 第一句话的意思是，传统的巨头（比如第二段提到的那些），开始逐渐拆分变小；但是，新的巨头（如后面提到的谷歌、亚马逊和苹果等）正在不断的追逐多元化（业务触角伸向更多的领域）。因此，这些新巨头们围绕数字技术和极低的借贷成本，持续推动现代经济的发展。
17. investment portfolios 投资组合
18. buy-out: 买断（…的）股份（或产权）
19. barons: 男爵；工商业巨头
20. 整一段话提及了两种公司：新兴的巨头（谷歌、亚马逊和苹果等）通过它们的利润来投资到各种多元的业务（我又想起了之前讨论过的：腾讯投行化、每个App都有借钱功能，都越来越臃肿庞大，塞进各种功能，便是如此体现）；另一种就是如黑石和KKR这类私募机构，通过各种投资组合去买买买，使自己变成巨头。
4 Tech CEOs bristle at any mention of the cword. Their diversification is fuelled by the logic and profitability of the digital economy, they insist, not by the desire to manage a balanced portfolio of distinct subsidiaries as in oldschool conglomerates. Engineering clout and access to data provide economies of scale and scope in product development; demandside synergies emerge from bundling and “digital ecosystems”. Bosses at ITT, once among the largest diversified American conglomerates, encouraged employees and suppliers to rent cars from Avis, one of its divisions. The links between products at bigtech firms are far stronger: Apple’s watches and earphones, as well as its TV series and playlists, are part of the iPhone ecosystem; shopping for kale and kombucha at Whole Foods is cheaper if you join Prime, Amazon's membership programme.
21. Bristle: n. 短而硬的毛发; 刚毛; 刷子毛; v. To react in an angry or offended manner (对某人的言行)大为恼怒; 被激怒; 这里说，这些科技巨头的CEO们，一旦听到C开头的单词，就会激怒。为何？因为他们的多元化（跟第3段chasing diversification呼应）是通过数字经济的逻辑和盈利能力，而不是像老式企业集团那样希望管理不同子公司的平衡组合。
因此，这个C开头的单词，通过逻辑推理，肯定是与they insist后面那部分想呼应，因为他们不想被人们认为，他们是通过manage a balanced portfolio来实现diversification的。如此，大概是个贬义的名词或动词。
于是我想到了之前阅读过的一本书。
讲了一个什么故事呢？熟悉硅谷的一些故事的同学可能听过，几位年轻的小伙伴，开发了一个社交app。这个App的特点是，你给好友发的照片，只能看10秒。10秒后再也找不到这张照片。
这个App出来后，DAU日活立即上去，数据非常好看。这个时候，有人慌了。就是Facebook（现在叫Meta，没错，刚刚也裁员了）的老板，小扎同志。小扎同志一看，这不行，影响到我们了，再这样下去，我堂堂的Facebook岂不是落于下风？精明的小扎同志立马给Snapchat的几位创始人打了电话。一开始就抛出了极高的offer。奈何人家不吃这套。小扎同志急了，阴招都出来了：“你不卖给我，就会怎样怎样”。大哥给了面子，你居然不要？
最后，经过许多故事之后，Snapchat最终还是卖给了Facebook。同样，还有我们熟悉的Ins, 也是卖给了Facebook。
回到本文，这些科技巨头的CEO们，听到哪个C开头的单词，会急眼呢？？斗胆猜测一下：Cheat 欺骗，作弊。意思是通过不正当的手段来进行diversification.
所以科技巨头的CEO们才会不断强调，我们是通过利润（第三段）和合乎逻辑的投资（第四段）来实现多元化的，绝不是（they insist）像传统的巨头一样，通过“不正当”的方式来并购，或者获得该公司的经营权
22. 承接第一句讲科技巨头的多元化是依赖于数字经济。这里提及了1）数据的使用在产品的发展中带来规模经济和范围经济；2）需求方的协同作用来源于“数字生态”。后面作者进一步举例，来阐释这些科技巨头们是如何做的。
23. Fuelled=第三段的propelled 同义替换
24. Clout v.猛击 重打
25. Economies of scale and scope 规模经济；范围经济
26. Synergies 原型synergy: a mutually advantageous conjunction or compatibility of distinct business participants or elements (such as resources or efforts) 协同增效作用(人或公司共同协作所产生的效果优于各自单独行动的效果)
5 Look closer, though, and similarities abound. Huge profits from tech firms’ core businesses have funded a giant land-grab. Amazon’s dominant position in cloud computing, initially intended to support its ecommerce marketplace, now contributes the lion’s share of profits and bank-rolls big bets in entertainment (like the $8.5bn acquisition of MGM, owner of the James Bond franchise), health (a $3.9bn deal to buy One Medical, a provider of primary care) and space (Amazon plans to invest more than $10bn in its Kuiper satellites). Alphabet’s lucrative searchad and YouTube businesses subsidise a lossmaking cloud operation and a moonshot unit, which together lost more than $2bn in the most recent quarter. The result is that big tech firms now compete across multiple industries, largely with each other.
28. landgrab: Land grabbing is the contentious issue of large-scale land acquisitions: the buying or leasing of large pieces of land by domestic and transnational companies, governments, and individuals.（维基百科） 这里land-grab是作名词，是指这个行为：可以理解成攻城略地，或者强占土地。在这语境里面，理解成互联网科技巨头通过别的业务的利润，来投资（抢占）一些新的业务。
29. 最后作者总结：通过第3和第4段一直讲的科技巨头通过盈利业务的利润来补贴新的业务，以触达更多的新领域，逐渐变得越来越庞大。
30. lion’s share: 最大的份额
31. bankrolls: v. to support a person or activity financially 用财力支持；记得以前某篇经济学人文章用的词是deep-pocket, 可以理解成倾尽家产支持
32. moonshot: used to refer to a plan or aim to do something that seems almost impossible, or relating to such plans or aims.（牛津词典）这里是adj. 意思是几乎不可能的计划、目的等
6 Private-equity firms, too, have come to resemble the sprawling groups they once dismantled. Low interest rates created alternativeinvestment behemoths managing trillions of dollars in privately held equity, credit, property and infrastructure assets. Attempts to raise sources of permanent capital invite comparisons to Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett’s $640bn diversified holding company. The financial groups’ buy-out arms are vast pools of capital invested across multiple sectors: the portfolio companies of Apollo employ more than twice as many workers as GE.
33. 承接第三段讨论的两个事情：科技巨头的业务多元化和PE公司（私人股本公司）的Low interest rates推动现代经济的发展。第6段开始讲后面的这个内容。第一句话就说了，这些PE公司，越来越像它们之前拆掉的盘根错节的大集团。
34. Behemoths: something that is extremely large and often extremely powerful （牛津词典）巨头；庞然大物
buyout: (in business) a situation in which a person or group buys all the shares belonging to a company and so gets control of it（牛津词典）/ is used synonymously with the term acquisition(https://www.investopedia.com/) 全部买下；买空；并购
7 Now the magic is fading for the new conglomerates. It is financial engineering, not operating knowhow, which has juiced privateequity returns. According to a study by Bain, a consultancy, expanding margins accounted for only 6% of privateequity value-creation during the past five years. Leveraged buyouts struck at high valuations will hurt returns for some big funds. In the absence of cheap money, dealmakers will either sit on their piles of dry-powder or try their luck as judicious conglomeratemanagers capable of striking bargains and nurturing businesses. Most will struggle with this transition.
28. Magic: 魔法。承接上一段，这里的Magic魔法指的是那些PE公司通过极低的借债利息来buy-out各种企业。这一段作者却说，这个魔法（手段）已经慢慢不行了。后面继续说：Leveraged buyouts struck at high valuations will hurt returns for some big funds.以高估值进行的杠杆收购(buy-out)将损害一些大基金的回报。没有便宜的资金（所有资金都是有成本的），这些交易者（PE公司）要么手握大量现金，要么尝试自己做管理，去培育业务。这些PE公司都会经受痛苦的转型。
29. Juiced: v. 给..充电；支持
30. dry-powder: Dry powder is a slang term referring to marketable securities that are highly liquid and considered cash-like. Dry powder can also refer to cash reserves kept on hand by a company, venture capital firm or individual to cover future obligations, purchase assets or make acquisitions. (https://www.investopedia.com/)投资机构或基金所具有的储备流动资金.
31. Judicious: having or showing reason and good judgment in making decisions adj. 明智的; 明断的; 有见地的; 动词是judge
8 The true extent of private-equity firms’ problems may remain cloudy for a while. But the reckoning will come, because their funds are by design timelimited. Eventually, the funds’ managers will be forced to sell the assets and return cash to investors. Underperformers will find themselves unable to raise new funds.
32. PE公司的problems可能还会存在一段时间。承接上面一段，这里problems指的就是struggle transition了。但是这些基金都是有期限。基金经理会被强制要求卖出相应的资产以回馈投资者。表现差的PE就难以再筹集新的资金。
33. Reckoning: 这里做名词，表示a summing up: 总结，结算
9 Big-tech bosses face no such automatic disciplining mechanism. So long as the companies’ core businesses printed money, investors humoured their side hussles and tolerated declining returns on capital at some firms. In aggregate for the big five this has fallen by more than half over the past five years (see chart 2).
34. automatic disciplining mechanism: 自动惩戒机制，其实就是指第8段中倒数第二句话：基金经理会被强制要求卖出相应的资产以回馈投资者。
35. printed money印钱：提供利润，作者“暗示”这些巨头的某些业务真的很赚钱，比如谷歌的广告业务。
36. humoured: 这个“幽默的”其实是动词，意思是to adapt oneself to使自己适应
37. side hussles: 恕本人无力查到 hussles 这个单词。有理解的小伙伴可以私聊。
10 As tech firms’ profit engines come under pressure—advertising and cloud computing profits are facing cyclical headwinds and increased competition—investors are questioning the logic of the firms’ portfolios, says Emilie Feldman of the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. The shares of Alphabet, Amazon and Meta have all lost more than 10% of their value since the companies’ latest quarterly reports in late October. Mark Zuckerberg, founder and chief executive of Meta, got an earful from investors about moneylosing moonshots and bloated, costly workforces. His opposite numbers at Alphabet and Amazon, Sundar Pichai and Andy Jassy, could face similar treatment soon enough.
46. 第9段讲完PE公司的struggle with transition。这里作者讲回了科技巨头的struggle——就算的印钞机都要承受更大的压力。前面说的print money，这里的profit engines。进而投资者会质疑这些公司的投资策略和组合（意思是你们的业务拓展是否有意义？）投资者（股东们）不满意，那么这些CEO们也不会好受。
47. Headwinds: a wind blowing in the opposite direction to the one you are moving in. （牛津词典） 迎头风；逆风
48. Earful: to complain angrily to someone 唠叨，斥责；怨言
49. Bloated: swollen and rounded because of containing too much air, liquid, or food: adj. 膨胀的; 肿胀的; 臃肿的
11 As hired guns, Messrs Pichai and Jassy wield little formal power over their boards. That may yet make them receptive to calls for greater focus. Mr Zuckerberg, who lords it over Meta thanks to dualclass shares, seems deaf to investors’ wails. He wants to keep spending perhaps $15bn a year to expand his digital domain to the metaverse. As symptoms of conglomeritis go, none is more classic than an unaccountable boss with empirebuilding ambitions.
50. Wield power: 使用权力（或职权）
51. 第一句话承接上一段最后一句话。作者这里说，你们这些CEO们，不也是也被人使用的武器，连枪手都不是，在董事会几乎没有权利。但是由于双重股权架构，小扎同志才不管你们这些股东的情况。
这里插一句，dual-class shares structure: 二元股权架构，意思是股东们同票（股）不同权。目的是通过分离现金流和控制权。比如我们熟悉的马爸爸，阿里巴巴公司就是典型代表之一。尽管马爸爸的股票量很少，但是当时他的投票权极高，相当于牢牢控制住了公司的运营。
52. 最后一句对文章进行了总结：就企业集团的症状而言，最经典的莫过于一个不负责任的老板，他有建立帝国的野心。
53. dualclass shares: 双重股权，二元股权架构
54. wails: a long, high, loud cry, especially because of something unpleasant: a wail of anguish; 哭号，恸哭
总结I
单词（1）
巨头的表达：
conglomerates
diversified industrial empires
barons
sprawling empire
sprawling group
Behemoths
另外补充：
cartel
chain
syndicate
big name/household name
heavyweight
giant
colossus
juggernaut
dinosaur
powerhouse/superpower
bellwether
big fish/big beast
aircraft-carrier
形容人的：
guru
mogul
magnate
tycoon
aristocrat
glitterati
单词（2）
4. Agitate
5. Divestments
8. Poster-child
9. Unravelling
10. Hulking
11. Divestitures
12. Globetrotting
15. Remission
19. barons
21. Bristle
23. Fuelled
24. Clout
26. Synergies 原型synergy
32. moonshot
34. Behemoths
37. Juiced
39. Judicious
41. Reckoning
44. humoured
47. Headwinds
48. Earful
49. Bloated
54. wails
短语
2. conglomerate discount
6. idée fixe
13. hawking off
17. investment portfolios
18/35. buy-out
25. economies of scale and scope
28. landgrab
30. lion's share
31. bankrolls
38. drypowder
42. automatic disciplining mechanism
50. Wield power
53. dualclass shares
总结II
By E介俗人
本文主要从企业的组织架构角度，去思考巨头们为何越来越庞大臃肿。
当传统巨头逐步开始拆分，科技巨头却反其道行之，业务边界越来越宽，商业触角延伸到更多的领域。
科技巨头们凭借其现金牛业务，持续补贴问题型业务，来实现多元化。
PE公司手握大量现金，通过极低的利率，去市场上买买买，以控制更多的企业与业务。
但是这两种企业均会面临新的挑战与困难。
因此，我们可以延伸出两个个讨论话题：
1. 反垄断：资本无序扩张 这表达最近频繁出现。证明国家一直有意识到，仅追求效率，这些巨头们会被资本牵制，越来越庞大，吸收了大量的国家资源。
因此，反垄断的提出，不仅仅是为了给这些无序的资本加上一道监管，更重要的是现在风向逐步转向公平。
我国的互联网大厂、巨头们，现在借助其技术力量，投资或投身于实体经济，提高整个社会的生产运营效率，最终提高社会福祉。
这不仅仅是这些大厂们的未来增量，更是国内转型升级的好风口。
2. 企业的边界在哪？
作为管理学中重要的概念之一，企业边界（Enterprise boundary）指的是企业以其核心能力为基础，在与市场的相互作用过程中形成的经营范围和经营规模，其决定因素是经营效率。
但是一个企业能不能无限扩张，无限庞大呢？学术界有众多的研究，这里不一一列举。讲个最简单的概念：边际效应（marginal effect）
随着技术、生产经验等的提升，企业在生产、扩张中，会享受economic of scale规模效应所带来的边际成本（marginal cost）的降低，从而降低整体生产运营的成本，获得更高的市场竞争力。
但无论是规模效应，亦或是边际效应，均有“转折点”。超过该点的生产、运营以及扩张会推翻之前所有的低成本，导致运营成本的重新增加。
因此，企业是不可以无限扩张的，是不可以“既要又要”的。过于庞大，会有“大企业病”，会出现人员臃肿，效率降低等等问题。
推荐大家学习《管理经济学》，以获得对企业组织架构设计、战略规划等有更多认知。
拓展题：对最近沸沸扬扬的国有化某些互联网大型企业的传闻，你有什么想法？