图片来源：RTL
Portfolio managers seek out bargains and dump high-flying companies that have been in vogue since the wake of the financial crisis. The strong relative returns have meant that an investment strategy in which traders purchase shares in global companies that are cheap compared with metrics like book value and profits, and bet against groups that are expensive, has generated returns of almost 30 per cent so far this year, according to Bloomberg data.
投资组合经理们正在寻找物美价廉的股票，并抛售自金融危机爆发以来一直受追捧的成功公司。彭博(Bloomberg)的数据显示，相对强劲的回报意味着，交易员购买比账面价值和利润等指标更便宜的全球公司股票，并做空估值较高的公司股票的投资策略，今年迄今已产生近30%的回报。
The renaissance started over a year ago, but the so-called value factor’s powerful rise in 2022 has reinforced belief that this is now a durable shift in market conditions. “There is a regime shift under way,” said Yoram Lustig, head of multi-asset solutions for Europe and Latin America at US asset manager T Rowe Price.
这种价值因素向导投资在2022年的强劲上升被大家称为市场状况的一个持久转变。美国资产管理公司普信(T Rowe Price)欧洲及拉美多元资产解决方案主管约拉姆•拉斯蒂格(Yoram Lustig)表示：“目前正在发生一种机制转变。”
Growth investing has dominated as central banks have unleashed successive rounds of stimulus to shore up the world economy against the financial crisis in 2008 and the coronavirus crisis in 2020. The measures, including setting interest rates at historically low levels, helped inflate the prices of companies not expected to reach peak profits for years to come.
随着各国央行推出连续几轮刺激措施，以支撑世界经济抵御2008年的金融危机和2020年的新冠危机，成长型投资占据了主导地位。这些措施，包括将利率设定在历史最低水平，帮助推高了预计在未来数年内利润不会达到峰值的公司的价格。
Value investors, in contrast, have struggled over the time period as their performance lagged behind. “We survived the worst decade for value in history and now we’re enjoying the fruits of the rebound,” says Rob Arnott, founder and chair of Research Affiliates, a consultancy. Nick Kirrage, co-head of the global value team at London-based asset manager Schroders, said that the valuations of growth stocks had become so overstretched that an eventual reversal was inevitable.
相比之下，价值型投资者在这段时间内表现落后，处境艰难。咨询公司Research Affiliates创始人兼董事长罗布•阿诺特(Rob Arnott)表示：“我们挺过了历史上最糟糕的10年，现在我们正在享受复苏的果实。”总部位于伦敦的资产管理公司施罗德(Schroders)全球价值团队联席主管尼克•克拉奇(Nick Kirrage)表示，成长型股票的估值已经过高，最终的逆转是不可避免的。
Analysis by quantitative investment firm AQR shows that the value spread — which is the dispersion between the valuation of growth and value stocks — is still nearly as stretched compared with historic norms as it was during the peak of the dotcom bubble in 2000. “This is a giant mispricing,” said AQR Capital Management founder Cliff Asness. “I believe that the ridiculous spreads that we’re seeing mean that value is going to make a lot of money in the next three-plus years.”
量化投资公司AQR的分析显示，与历史标准相比，价值差——即成长型股票与价值型股票的估值差——仍接近2000年互联网泡沫高峰时期的水平。AQR资本管理公司创始人克里夫•阿斯尼斯表示：“这是一个巨大的错误定价。我认为，我们目前看到的荒谬价值差意味着，未来三年多，价值股将赚很多钱。”
Vanguard expects US value stocks to deliver annualised returns of 4.1 per cent over the next 10 years compared with just 0.1 per cent for US growth stocks. And a shift in sentiment is starting to be borne out in exchange-traded fund flows among US investors. US-listed growth-focused ETFs have registered net outflows of $2bn in the first four months of 2022, partially reversing the positive inflows of $38.2bn seen over the whole of last year, according to data from State Street.
先锋集团预计，未来10年，美国价值型股票的年化回报率为4.1%，而美国成长型股票的回报率仅为0.1%。美国投资者情绪的转变开始在交易所交易基金的流动中得到证实。道富银行(State Street)的数据显示，2022年前4个月，在美国上市的成长型ETF净流出20亿美元，在一定程度上扭转了去年全年382亿美元的正流入。
Meanwhile US-listed value ETFs have gathered net inflows of $37.6bn in the first four months of the year, following $60.3bn net inflows during 2021, State Street said.
与此同时，道富银行表示，今年前4个月，在美国上市的价值型ETF净流入376亿美元，2021年净流入603亿美元。
Despite this rotation, the vast majority of investors — many of whom have become conditioned to “buy the dip” in recent years — are still contemplating whether to increase their exposure to value stocks, said Richard Halle, portfolio manager at M&G Investments.
M&G Investments投资组合经理理查德•黑尔(Richard Halle)表示，尽管如此，绝大多数投资者——其中许多人近年来已习惯于“逢低买入”——仍在考虑是否增加对价值型股票的敞口。
It is emotionally difficult to take action when growth stocks have done so well for so long,” he added. “Previous rallies for value stocks since the financial crisis have been brief and actually turned out to be a signal to double down on bets on growth stocks.”
他补充称：“在成长型股票表现如此之好的情况下，从情绪上很难采取行动。自金融危机以来，价值型股票的前几次反弹都很短暂，实际上被证明是对成长型股票加倍下注的信号。”
Guy Spier, chief executive at Zurich-based Aquamarine Capital, said that the current inflationary environment means that investors are favouring companies that show real earnings today, rather than evaluating some of the more imaginative metrics by which they looked at growth companies, such as total addressable market, unit economics, net earnings that exclude stock compensation costs, or even — in the case of WeWork — community-adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation.
总部位于苏黎世的Aquamarine Capital的首席执行官盖伊•施皮尔(Guy Spier)表示，当前的通胀环境意味着，投资者青睐那些目前显示出实际收益的公司，而不是用一些更具想象力的指标来评估成长型公司，比如总潜在市场、单位经济、不包括股权补偿成本的净利润，或者——就WeWork而言——经调整的息税折旧及摊销前利润。