AWS打造更大亚马逊！AI战略奏效，出海企业紧跟云巨头步伐？- 大数跨境

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AWS打造更大亚马逊！AI战略奏效，出海企业紧跟云巨头步伐？

雨神汇

2025-07-26

导读：分析师解读亚马逊AI布局，定制芯片、AI即服务，雨生云计算剖析云巨头的新增长引擎

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标题：AWS打造更大亚马逊！AI战略奏效，出海企业紧跟云巨头步伐？

副标题：分析师解读亚马逊AI布局，定制芯片、AI即服务，雨生云计算剖析云巨头的新增长引擎

各位出海的朋友们，大家好！

今天，我们要聊聊云计算巨头亚马逊（Amazon，股票代码：AMZN）的AI战略。最近，Seeking Alpha上一篇分析文章引起了我们的关注，文章指出，亚马逊正通过其AWS云服务和积极的AI投资，成为AI硬件需求的关键驱动力。这对于出海企业来说，又意味着什么呢？让我们一起来看看。

新闻简报

Seeking Alpha分析师Kennedy Njagi撰文指出，亚马逊凭借其在AI硬件需求中的关键角色以及积极的AI投资，值得买入。

AI硬件需求驱动： 亚马逊是AI硬件需求的关键驱动者，受益于其对AI能力的积极投资。
AI即服务增长： AWS的AI即服务（AIaaS）增长迅猛，定制芯片计划以及广泛的AI集成，使亚马逊有望在云计算和AI领域长期保持领先地位。
估值合理： 尽管估值指标较高，但亚马逊的市盈率增长比率（PEG）较低，且收入增长强劲，证明其当前股价合理。
增长前景良好： AWS数十亿美元的营收规模、三位数的AI增长以及持续的云迁移，都支持其稳健的增长前景。

关键增长催化剂

AWS AI即服务增长： 越来越多的企业将生成式AI（Gen AI）列为优先事项，AWS的AI服务需求激增。VentureBeat最近的一项AWS调查显示，45%的组织计划优先考虑Gen AI支出，而非传统的安全工具等投资。
定制芯片计划： AWS开发了专门的芯片Trainium和Inferentia，以支持其云服务并减少对外部供应商的依赖。AWS称，Trainium 2的成本比英伟达（NVDA）的GPU低40%，并且性能优于当前基于英伟达GPU的实例。
AI集成： 除了核心平台之外，亚马逊还在其产品中集成AI。例如，它推出了Amazon Q，这是一个用于软件开发的Gen AI助手，可帮助企业开发人员自动化编码任务。

管理层观点

亚马逊CEO Andy Jassy表示，他们认为AWS有机会成为一个营收规模数千亿美元的企业，并且随着AI的普及，这个数字可能会更大。他还强调，目前仍有大量本地基础设施尚未迁移到云端。

雨生点评

云巨头转型： 亚马逊正在从传统的云计算服务商向AI平台转型。
AI商业化加速： AI技术的商业化正在加速，越来越多的企业开始将AI应用于实际业务场景。
降本增效： 亚马逊通过定制芯片和AI集成，实现了降本增效的目标，并为客户提供了更具竞争力的服务。
出海新机遇： 对于出海企业来说，这意味着可以借助AWS等云平台的AI服务，快速提升自身的技术实力和创新能力。

出海企业如何抓住机遇？

拥抱云服务： 将业务迁移到云端，利用云平台提供的AI服务。
关注AI应用： 探索AI在企业运营中的应用场景，提升效率和竞争力。
定制化解决方案： 根据自身业务需求，选择定制化的AI解决方案。
与合作伙伴共赢： 与云服务商、AI技术提供商等合作伙伴共同发展。

风险提示

分析师指出，关税风险和地缘政治是亚马逊面临的主要风险。此外，宏观经济风险也可能对其电商销售产生影响。

总结

AWS是亚马逊的关键增长引擎。随着越来越多的企业将IT系统从本地迁移到云端，AWS的市场需求将持续增长。亚马逊的定制芯片计划和AI即服务是其关键增长驱动力。

欢迎大家转发，一起关注云计算和AI行业的新动态！

原文中英文对照翻译稿件

Original Article: AWS Creates A Larger Market For Amazon

Summary

I rate Amazon a buy due to its pivotal role as a demand driver for AI hardware and aggressive AI investments.
- 鉴于亚马逊作为AI硬件需求驱动者的关键作用以及积极的AI投资，我将其评为买入。
AWS's AI-as-a-service growth, custom silicon initiatives, and broad AI integration position Amazon for long-term cloud and AI leadership.
- AWS的AI即服务增长、定制芯片计划以及广泛的AI集成，使亚马逊有望在云计算和AI领域长期保持领先地位。
Despite premium valuation metrics, Amazon's discounted PEG ratio and strong revenue growth justify its current price.
- 尽管估值指标较高，但亚马逊的市盈率增长比率（PEG）较低，且收入增长强劲，证明其当前股价合理。
AWS's multi-billion dollar run rate, triple-digit AI growth, and ongoing cloud migration support a robust growth outlook.
- AWS数十亿美元的营收规模、三位数的AI增长以及持续的云迁移，都支持其稳健的增长前景。

Investment Thesis

投资论点

I rate Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) a buy for a couple of reasons. For context, in my last couple of articles, I have done articles that were majorly focused on AI players. Some of the AI players that I covered were Nvidia Corp. (NVDA), Broadcom (AVGO), AMD (AMD), Credo Tech (CRDO), Astera Labs (ALAB), Marvell (MRVL), Micron Tech (MU) and POET Technologies (POET). One of the things that I realized in my research is that in almost every piece that I worked one, I kept referring to hyperscalers. Also, I also realized that most of these articles were focused on AI infrastructure supply side. This means that most of these companies have something to offer that is AI related. But they are not actual buyers or consumers of these products. Therefore, my decision to focus on one of the hyperscalers that is an actual buyer and a deployer of AI infrastructure. By demonstrating the demand side of the AI boom especially with AMZN, I believe I will be able to close the loop on how the AI supply side meets the demand side.

我将Amazon.com（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）评为买入，原因有以下几点。首先，在之前的几篇文章中，我主要关注的是AI领域的公司。我报道过的一些AI公司包括Nvidia Corp.（NVDA）、Broadcom（AVGO）、AMD（AMD）、Credo Tech（CRDO）、Astera Labs（ALAB）、Marvell（MRVL）、Micron Tech（MU）和POET Technologies（POET）。在我的研究中，我意识到几乎每一篇文章我都提到了超大规模企业。此外，我也意识到这些文章大多关注AI基础设施的供应方。这意味着大多数这些公司都有与AI相关的东西可以提供，但它们不是这些产品的实际买家或消费者。因此，我决定关注其中一家超大规模企业，即AI基础设施的实际买家和部署者。通过展示AI繁荣的需求侧，特别是与AMZN相关的需求侧，我相信我能够完整地展示AI供应侧如何满足需求侧。

Amazon.com is a key driver of demand for AI hardware. I believe it has aggressive investment in AI capabilities not only benefits AWS but also serves as tailwinds for several component suppliers. Despite having its own in-house chips, it continues to purchase large quantities of Nvidia GPUs, AMD EPYC CPUs, Broadcom's Tomahawk series switch chips, Credo's Active Electrical Cables [AECs] and Micron's DDR5 DRAM. Secondly, its AI-as-a-service model is well positioned for growth. And lastly, is its custom silicon initiative. And these factors make AMZN an attractive ticker to buy.

Amazon.com是AI硬件需求的关键驱动力。我相信它对AI能力的积极投资不仅有利于AWS，而且还有利于几家组件供应商。尽管拥有自己的内部芯片，但它仍然继续购买大量Nvidia GPU、AMD EPYC CPU、Broadcom的Tomahawk系列交换芯片、Credo的有源电缆[AECs]和Micron的DDR5 DRAM。其次，其AI即服务模式具有良好的增长潜力。最后，是其定制芯片计划。这些因素使得AMZN成为一个有吸引力的买入标的。

So, what makes Amazon.com a buy?

那么，是什么让Amazon.com值得买入呢？

Growth Catalysts

增长催化剂

First and foremost is its AWS AI-as-a-service growth. AWS is now experiencing a surge in demand for its AI services as companies prioritize gen AI initiatives. According to a recent AWS survey by VentureBeat, 45% of organizations plan to prioritize gen AI spending over traditional investments like security tool. And in fact, 90% of companies are now deploying gen AI in some capacity with 44% already moving into production deployments. Another fact is that 85% of global IT is still on-premise and is expected to flip in the next 10-20 years. Ideally, this means a huge portion of business will be cloud based on the next decade or 2.

首先也是最重要的是其AWS AI即服务的增长。随着公司优先考虑gen AI计划，AWS现在正经历对其AI服务需求的激增。VentureBeat最近的一项AWS调查显示，45%的组织计划优先考虑gen AI支出，而不是传统的安全工具等投资。事实上，现在有90%的公司正在以某种方式部署gen AI，其中44%已经进入生产部署阶段。另一个事实是，全球IT的85%仍然是本地部署，预计将在未来10-20年内发生转变。理想情况下，这意味着未来10-20年内，大部分业务将基于云。

"...Before this generation of AI, we thought AWS had the chance to ultimately be a multi $100 billion revenue run rate business. We now think it could be even larger. If you believe your mission is to make customers' lives easier and better every day and you believe that every customer experience will be reinvented with AI, you're going to invest very aggressively in AI and that's what we're doing..."

“……在这一代AI之前，我们认为AWS有机会最终成为一个营收规模达数千亿美元的企业。我们现在认为它可能会更大。如果你相信你的使命是每天让客户的生活更轻松、更好，并且你相信每一次客户体验都将通过AI得到改造，你就会非常积极地投资AI，这就是我们正在做的事情……”

"...I conclude my AWS comments with the reminder that there's still so much on-premises infrastructure yet to be moved to the cloud..."

“……我以提醒大家仍有大量本地基础设施尚未迁移到云端来结束我对AWS的评论……”

Andy Jassy, CEO, 1Q FY2025 Earnings Call

安迪贾西，CEO，2025财年第一季度财报电话会议

This shows a clear inflection point for mainstream AI adoption. And Amazon is prioritizing this through its AI-as-a-Service [AIaaS] which is offered through Amazon SageMaker and Amazon Bedrock. Amazon Bedrock is a fully managed service that makes it easy to build high-quality Gen AI applications. It is also prudent to mention that beyond core platforms, AMZN is integrating AI across its offerings. As an example, it launched Amazon Q which is a gen AI assistant for software development and helps corporate developers automate coding tasks.

这显示了主流AI采用的一个清晰拐点。亚马逊正在通过其AI即服务[AIaaS]来优先考虑这一点，该服务通过Amazon SageMaker和Amazon Bedrock提供。Amazon Bedrock是一项完全托管的服务，可以轻松构建高质量的Gen AI应用程序。同样值得一提的是，除了核心平台之外，AMZN还在其产品中集成AI。例如，它推出了Amazon Q，这是一个用于软件开发的gen AI助手，可帮助企业开发人员自动化编码任务。

Secondly, is AMZN custom silicon initiative. AWS has developed specialized chips-Trainium and Inferentia to power its cloud and reduce dependency on external suppliers. According to AWS, Trainium 2 costs 40% less than NVDA's GPUs and also has better performance than current Nvidia GPU-based instances. And real world use cases have proven that its true. When Amazon's Alexa team migrated the majority of Alexa's text-to-speech processing from GPUs to Inferentia based servers, it ended up achieving 25% lower latency and 30% lower cost for those AI workloads. Also, there is increasing adoption and usage of their custom chip. In as much as Nvidia's GPUs remain the industry standard, AWS is seeing increasing traction for its chips as noted by the CEO.

其次是AMZN的定制芯片计划。AWS开发了专门的芯片Trainium和Inferentia，以支持其云服务并减少对外部供应商的依赖。根据AWS的数据，Trainium 2的成本比NVDA的GPU低40%，并且性能优于当前基于Nvidia GPU的实例。并且实际用例已经证明这是真的。当亚马逊的Alexa团队将Alexa的大部分文本到语音处理从GPU迁移到基于Inferentia的服务器时，它最终实现了这些AI工作负载的25%的延迟降低和30%的成本降低。此外，其定制芯片的采用和使用量也在不断增加。正如首席执行官指出的那样，尽管Nvidia的GPU仍然是行业标准，但AWS正在看到其芯片的吸引力越来越大。

"...our new custom AI chip Trainium 2 is starting to lay in capacity in larger quantities with significant appeal and demand. While we offer customers the ability to do AI in multiple chip providers and will for as long as I can proceed, customers doing AI at any significant scale realize that it can get expensive quickly. So, the 30% to 40% better price performance that Trainium 2 offers versus other GPU based instances is compelling..."

“……我们的新型定制AI芯片Trainium 2开始以更大的数量铺设产能，具有巨大的吸引力和需求。虽然我们为客户提供在多个芯片供应商中进行AI的能力，并且只要我能继续，但以任何重大规模进行AI的客户都意识到它可能会Swift变得昂贵。因此，Trainium 2与其他基于GPU的实例相比，提供的30%到40%更好的性价比是引人注目的……”

"... And I would tell you that our AI business right now is a multi-billion dollar annual run rate business that's growing triple-digit percentages year-over-year..."

：

"...During the first quarter, we continue to see growth in both Generative AI business and non-Generative AI offerings..."

“……在第一季度，我们继续看到生成式AI业务和非生成式AI产品的增长……”

Andy Jassy, CEO

安迪贾西，CEO

Valuation

估值

In terms of Growth, let me begin by saying that AMZN scores an excellent A-growth grade. Given the size and the market capitalization of the company, I would refer to it as a decent. In terms of FWD Revenue Growth rate, AMZN expects a 9.89% growth while the sector median stands at 3.03%. Also, its 3-5yr CAGR FWD Long Term EPS growth stands at 18.27% compared to 10.29% sector median. And this clearly shows you the kind of growth expected from the AIaaS, custom silicon initiative and the fact that many businesses are willing to convert their IT from on-premise to cloud. As noted earlier, AWS is a multi-billion dollar business generating annual revenue on a run-rate basis and growing triple digits y/y. Therefore, I expect AWS to continue contributing to AMZN's revenue. As of now, AWS contributes about 17.7% of quarterly total revenue as noted.

在增长方面，让我首先说，AMZN获得了优秀的A-增长评级。考虑到公司的规模和市值，我会认为这是相当不错的。在远期收入增长率方面，AMZN预计增长9.89%，而行业中位数为3.03%。此外，其3-5年复合年增长率远期长期每股收益增长率为18.27%，而行业中位数为10.29%。这清楚地表明了人们对AIaaS、定制芯片计划以及许多企业愿意将其IT从本地部署转换为云端所期望的增长类型。如前所述，AWS是一项数十亿美元的业务，以运行率计算产生年收入，并且同比增长三位数。因此，我预计AWS将继续为AMZN的收入做出贡献。截至目前，AWS约占季度总收入的17.7%。

"...we expect AWS operating margins to fluctuate over time, driven in part by the level of investments we're making at any point in time..."

“……我们预计AWS的运营利润率会随着时间的推移而波动，部分原因在于我们随时进行的投资水平……”

"...AWS grew 17% year-over-year in Q1 and now sits at a $117 billion annualized revenue run rate..."

“……AWS第一季度同比增长17%，目前的年化收入运行率为1170亿美元……”

Seeking Alpha

If I compare AMZN to some of the other hyperscalers, I note that AMZN has a lower FWD revenue growth rate compared to Microsoft (MSFT) which stands at 14.31%. Meta Platforms (META) has its FWD revenue growth rate at 16.72% while Alphabet (GOOG) stands at 11.87%. Nevertheless, the bottom line is that all four hyperscalers have their growth rate above the entire IT sector. And given their huge market sizes in terms of market cap, I would say their growth rates are quite decent.

如果我将AMZN与其他一些超大规模企业进行比较，我注意到AMZN的远期收入增长率低于微软（MSFT），后者为14.31%。Meta Platforms（META）的远期收入增长率为16.72%，而Alphabet（GOOG）为11.87%。尽管如此，最重要的是，所有四家超大规模企业的增长率都高于整个IT行业。鉴于它们在市值方面的巨大市场规模，我认为它们的增长率是相当不错的。

Now, when I look at valuation, a couple of things stand out. First, is that most valuation metrics indicate that the stock is trading at a premium as shown below. However, when I focus on GAAP TTM PEG, I note that AMZN is trading at 0.51x against 0.84x sector median. This indicates a 38.89% discount relative to sector median. In my view, while most of the other valuation metrics and multiples appear high in absolute terms, when juxtaposed with AMZN's 10% CAGR in top-line, then the stock's trading premium is not as high as it seems.

现在，当我查看估值时，有几件事很突出。首先，大多数估值指标表明该股的交易价格存在溢价，如下所示。但是，当我专注于GAAP TTM PEG时，我注意到AMZN的交易价格为0.51倍，而行业中位数为0.84倍。这表明相对于行业中位数有38.89%的折扣。在我看来，虽然大多数其他估值指标和倍数在绝对值方面看起来很高，但与AMZN 10%的顶级复合年增长率并列时，该股的交易溢价并不像看起来那么高。

When I compared AMZN with other hyperscalers, I note that AMZN is still lower than its peers in terms of TTM PEG as shown in the figure below.

当我将AMZN与其他超大规模企业进行比较时，我注意到AMZN在TTM PEG方面仍然低于其同行，如下图所示。

Amazon's Key Risk

亚马逊的关键风险

The biggest risk I see for Amazon (from the angle of a hyperscaler) and at the moment is Tariff exposure and geopolitics. This is especially the fact that Amazon now makes its own AI chips. I consider this a key risk following the limitations that other AI players such as AMD, Nvidia and Broadcom faced when they were denied export permissions to China. The US government had restricted the companies from exporting their AI chips and only allowed resumptions a couple of days ago. For AMZN, this could also happen. Not necessarily on AWS but also its retail business, which could heavily affect its revenues. The mitigation strategy here is that Amazon does not sell these chips to external parties and hence reduces a direct risk of such happening.

目前，我认为亚马逊（从超大规模企业的角度来看）最大的风险是关税敞口和地缘政治。特别是亚马逊现在生产自己的AI芯片这一事实。我认为这是一个关键风险，因为AMD、Nvidia和Broadcom等其他AI参与者在被拒绝向中国出口许可时面临限制。美国政府已经限制这些公司出口其AI芯片，并且几天前才允许恢复出口。对于AMZN，这种情况也可能发生。不一定是在AWS上，而且在其零售业务上，这可能会严重影响其收入。这里的缓解策略是，亚马逊不向外部方出售这些芯片，因此降低了发生这种情况的直接风险。

Another risk is macroeconomic risk. Given the size of AMZN, and the nature of its core business, there is a risk that Amazon is exposed to a couple of macro swings that could hurt its e-commerce sales.

另一个风险是宏观经济风险。鉴于AMZN的规模及其核心业务的性质，亚马逊面临着一些可能损害其电子商务销售的宏观波动风险。

Final Thoughts

最后的想法

AWS is a key growth enabler for AMZN. I believe that if 85% of businesses now use on-premise IT systems and are expected to flip in the next 10-20 years, then this creates a huge demand and market for AMZN's AWS. Its custom silicon initiative and AIaaS are key growth drivers for AMZN and for these reasons, I rate Amazon.com a buy.

AWS是AMZN的关键增长推动力。我相信，如果现在有85%的企业使用本地IT系统，并且预计在未来10-20年内发生转变，那么这将为AMZN的AWS创造巨大的需求和市场。其定制芯片计划和AIaaS是AMZN的关键增长驱动力，因此，我将Amazon.com评为买入。

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