【雨生独家】AWS 还是那个 AWS，但云江湖的风，它变了！

Alright，让雨生来会会这篇 “AWS 难被超越” 的老生常谈！

**标题：AWS 还是那个 AWS，但云江湖的风，它变了！**

**导语：** 2025 年了，还有人说AWS 一家独大？格局小了啊！今天雨生就来扒一扒，AWS 霸主地位背后的那些“小秘密”，以及中国出海企业弯道超车的机会！

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大家好，我是雨生，你们亦庄亦谐的云经济学老炮儿。

今天看到这篇 “It Is Very Hard To Catch AWS On The Clouds”，说 AWS 依然稳坐 IaaS 头把交椅。这事儿吧，就像你永远无法叫醒一个装睡的人，也无法阻止某些人继续 all in AWS。

It Is Very Hard To Catch AWS On The Clouds https://share.google/6hkx5ExOACdI9qoLT

Years before Amazon Web Services launched in March 2006, there were a slew of grid computing startups and incumbent system makers – and a few of them with deep supercomputing experience – that were hawking remotely accessible, utility-style computing on demand.

在 2006 年 3 月亚马逊网络服务公司推出之前的几年，已经涌现出了一大批网格计算初创公司和在位的系统制造商——其中一些公司拥有深厚的超级计算经验——他们都在兜售可远程访问的、公用事业风格的按需计算服务。

雨生泼冷水 time：没错，AWS 确实是云时代的先行者，就像第一个吃螃蟹的人。但别忘了，前浪死在沙滩上的例子还少吗？

最近经济学界 讨论苹果 亚马逊的 文章越来越多了

This nascent grid computing drove somewhere around $1 billion in sales worldwide in 2002, which was also the year that PC maker and server wannabe Gateway – remember them? – took the 8,000 display model PCs it had in its network of stores and lashed them into a computational grid called Gateway Processing On Demand, with a whopping 14 teraflops of aggregate performance. That peak performance of the Gateway grid, in theory, was on par with the 10.24 teraflops ASCI Q supercomputer at Los Alamos National Laboratory and the 12.29 teraflops ASCI White system at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, both of which were on the top of the Top 500 ranking of supercomputers in November 2002. In practice, the networking on the Gateway grid was too slow to run a lot of HPC applications, but was good for certain kinds calculations where the time to answer was not critical.

这种新兴的网格计算在 2002 年推动了全球约 10 亿美元的销售额，那一年，个人电脑制造商和服务器的追随者 Gateway（还记得他们吗？）将其在商店网络中的 8000 台展示模型个人电脑捆绑到一个名为 Gateway Processing On Demand 的计算网格中，总性能高达 14 万亿次浮点运算。理论上，Gateway 网格的峰值性能与洛斯阿拉莫斯国家实验室的 10.24 万亿次浮点运算的 ASCI Q 超级计算机和劳伦斯利弗莫尔国家实验室的 12.29 万亿次浮点运算的 ASCI White 系统相当，这两者都在 2002 年 11 月的超级计算机 Top 500 排名中名列前茅。实际上，Gateway 网格上的网络速度太慢，无法运行许多 HPC 应用程序，但对于某些对响应时间要求不高的计算类型来说，效果很好。

Other efforts like the Utility Data Center from Hewlett Packard in November 1999, Supercomputing On Demand from IBM in January 2003 and the Sun Grid from Sun Microsystems in February 2005 all predate the debut of Amazon Web Services, but it was the IT supplier arm of the online bookseller that gets credit as first mover. And we think this is the case because AWS EC2 compute and S3 object storage were easy to understand and use and because they were used for all kinds of real-world applications, not just HPC and data analytics work. AWS has made it easy, and everyone has had to play catch up since the Great Recession hit and cloud computing as we know it – virtualized compute, storage, and networking that can be turned on and off at will with metered pricing – started to become normal.

惠普于 1999 年 11 月推出的 Utility Data Center、IBM 于 2003 年 1 月推出的 Supercomputing On Demand 以及 Sun Microsystems 于 2005 年 2 月推出的 Sun Grid 等其他尝试都早于 Amazon Web Services 的首次亮相，但这家在线图书销售商的 IT 供应商部门才是获得先行者称号的公司。我们认为情况是这样的，因为 AWS EC2 计算和 S3 对象存储易于理解和使用，并且它们被用于各种实际应用，而不仅仅是 HPC 和数据分析工作。AWS 让一切变得简单，自从大衰退来袭，以及我们所知的云计算——可以随意打开和关闭的虚拟化计算、存储和网络，并采用计量定价——开始变得正常以来，每个人都不得不努力追赶。

AWS 胜在入场早，但现在 Azure、Google Cloud、阿里云、华为云... 哪个是吃素的？

And the substantial lead that AWS built up still has it in the pole position among cloud builders, even though its share of the market has inevitably been shrinking by baby steps as Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud, Alibaba Cloud, Huawei Cloud, and the neocloud collectives are all, give or take a quarter or two here and there, outgrowing the cloud builder behemoth.

尽管 AWS 积累的大量领先优势仍然使其在云构建商中处于领先地位，但由于 Microsoft Azure、Google Cloud、阿里云、华为云以及新晋的AI云集团都在或多或少地超过了云构建巨头，因此其市场份额不可避免地在逐渐缩小。

The market researchers at Gartner have just finishing casing sales of infrastructure as a service (IaaS) utility computing for 2024, and we took a gander at that and then went back into the Gartner archives and compiled all of the sales by cloud vendor going back to 2017.

市场研究公司 Gartner 刚刚完成了 2024 年基础设施即服务 (IaaS) 公用事业计算的销售额调查，我们对此进行了研究，然后回到 Gartner 档案中，汇编了自 2017 年以来所有云供应商的销售额。

As usual, Gartner compiles the revenues of the top five providers in any market and then lumps the others into an aptly named group called Others. We have estimated missing data, shown in bold red italics, as usual.

像往常一样，Gartner 会编制任何市场中前五大供应商的收入，然后将其他供应商归入一个名为“其他”的恰当组别。我们像往常一样估算了缺失的数据，以粗体红色斜体显示。

Here is the table we compiled from the public data from Gartner:

以下是我们根据 Gartner 的公开数据编制的表格：

*（此处插入 Gartner 的 IaaS 市场份额表格）*

And here is a graphical representation of the revenues by vendor for those of you who like to think visually:

以下是按供应商划分的收入的图形表示，供喜欢以视觉方式思考的人参考：

*（此处插入 Gartner 的 IaaS 市场份额图表）*

Remember this is just for IaaS, the renting of hardware capacity and does not include software and platform services that are sold separately.

请记住，这仅适用于 IaaS，即硬件容量的租赁，不包括单独销售的软件和平台服务。

Eight years ago, IBM and Tencent were large enough to make the top five and were for a while in a statistical tie – albeit with pretty modest revenues. Both have dropped below the radar and are not relegated to the Others bin. Alibaba Cloud has grown steadily, but a little more slowly than Google Cloud to be a solid number four, a position it will likely hold and that makes it the largest cloud builder in China.

八年前，IBM 和腾讯的规模都足以进入前五名，并且一度在统计上并列——尽管收入相当 modest。两者都已跌出雷达范围，并未被降级到“其他”类别。阿里云稳步增长，但略慢于 Google Cloud，成为稳固的第四名，它可能会保持这一地位，这使其成为中国最大的云构建商。

It is not hard to imagine that Alibaba could eventually be about half as large as AWS, particularly as China’s economy grows and the gross domestic product between the North America plus a large portion of Europe is sized against China and other parts of Asia where Alibaba has a presence. US-based providers account for around three-quarters of cloud revenues in Europe. GDP was $20.2 trillion last year in the United States and $17.9 trillion in the European Union, with China at $18.7 trillion. If clouds stay largely indigenous, then AWS plus Azure plus Google Cloud should be around a third of global cloud IaaS spending (it is twice that portion) and China should be around a sixth of the pie, and the two big suppliers in China – Alibaba and Huawei – account for about 11.4 percent of global cloud revenues.

不难想象，阿里巴巴最终可能会达到 AWS 的一半左右的规模，尤其是在中国经济增长以及北美加上欧洲大部分地区的国内生产总值与中国和阿里巴巴有业务的其他亚洲地区相比的情况下。总部位于美国的供应商约占欧洲云收入的四分之三。去年美国的 GDP 为 20.2 万亿美元，欧盟为 17.9 万亿美元，中国为 18.7 万亿美元。如果云主要保持本土化，那么 AWS 加上 Azure 加上 Google Cloud 应该占全球云 IaaS 支出的三分之一左右（是该比例的两倍），而中国应该占大约六分之一，而中国的两个大供应商——阿里巴巴和华为——占全球云收入的约 11.4%。

The US has a disproportional amount of cloud spending, and that is due in part to the GenAI boom but also to the immense amount of computing that the Western economies do in general.

美国在云支出方面所占比例过高，这部分归因于 GenAI 的繁荣，但也归因于西方经济体总体上进行的巨大计算量。

It is illustrative to see the share losses of AWS as well as the share gains by the other players, which are shown in the right side of the table above. It will take a long time for Microsoft Azure to catch AWS, but it is not outside the realm of possibility. Microsoft Azure is growing faster than AWS, and Google Cloud is growing faster than that. But the cloud arm of the search engine giant has a long way to go to catch Microsoft much less Amazon. We do not think the market will naturally settle into a position where AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud each get around 25 percent share of cloud IaaS spending and the rest of the vendors get the other 25 percent.

看看 AWS 的份额损失以及其他参与者的份额增长就说明问题了，这些都显示在上表的右侧。Microsoft Azure 需要很长时间才能赶上 AWS，但这并非不可能。Microsoft Azure 的增长速度快于 AWS，而 Google Cloud 的增长速度更快。但是，这家搜索引擎巨头的云部门还有很长的路要走才能赶上 Microsoft，更不用说 Amazon 了。我们认为市场不会自然而然地稳定在这样一种位置，即 AWS、Microsoft Azure 和 Google Cloud 各自获得约 25% 的云 IaaS 支出份额，而其余供应商获得另外 25%。

Just for fun, we used actual AWS revenues for the years shown and subtracted out the Gartner IaaS sales numbers for AWS to get a sense of how much platform as a service (PaaS) and software as a service (SaaS) revenues AWS has. Back in 2017, it looks like SaaS and PaaS only drove 30 percent of revenues, and it quickly jumped up above 43 percent over the ensuing years. Then, when the GenAI boom hit, AWS started renting very expensive GPU servers, and the balance shifted back towards hardware and is hovering around 40 percent of AWS revenues. This is lower than we have modeled in our AWS analysis, where we have PaaS and SaaS driving close to half of revenues before the AI boom, and a rate falling by a few points in the past several years thanks to GPU server spending due to GenAI.

有趣的是，我们使用了所示年份的实际 AWS 收入，并减去了 Gartner AWS 的 IaaS 销售数据，以了解 AWS 有多少平台即服务 (PaaS) 和软件即服务 (SaaS) 收入。早在 2017 年，SaaS 和 PaaS 似乎只贡献了 30% 的收入，但在随后的几年里迅速跃升至 43% 以上。然后，当 GenAI 繁荣来临时，AWS 开始租用非常昂贵的 GPU 服务器，并且平衡转移回硬件，并徘徊在 AWS 收入的 40% 左右。这低于我们在 AWS 分析中建模的水平，在该分析中，我们认为 PaaS 和 SaaS 在 AI 繁荣之前贡献了近一半的收入，并且由于 GenAI 导致的 GPU 服务器支出，在过去几年中下降了几个百分点。

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在高昂的成本下，效率是生成式人工智能成为主流的关键

**雨生划重点：**

*   **AWS 的 IaaS 份额在下降是事实，** 这意味着更多玩家入场，市场选择更多元。
*   **GenAI 确实推高了 AWS 的硬件收入，** 但这也给其他云厂商提供了差异化竞争的机会。
*   **中国云厂商的崛起不容忽视，** 尤其是在出海大潮下，更了解中国企业需求。

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**金句海报 (3-5条):**

1.  AWS 还是那个 AWS，但云江湖的风，它变了！
2.  出海别迷信“最大”，适合自己的才是最好！
3.  单打独斗不如抱团取暖，加入雨生的知识星球，一起掘金海外！
4.  GenAI 时代，弯道超车的机会来了！

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2.  AWS 还是那个 AWS，但云江湖的风，它变了！[文章链接] #雨生云计算# #出海#
3.  出海路上，单打独斗不如抱团取暖！加入雨生的知识星球，链接更多资源，一起掘金海外！[知识星球链接] #雨生云计算# #知识星球#

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