作者：金杜律师事务所 King & Wood Mallesons
作为世界最大市场，欧盟人口超过五亿，占英国出口总额的44%。 但是欧盟并非无懈可击，即便是欧盟支持者也觉得改革在所难免。英国退欧还是继续的全民投票近在咫尺 ——在选民需要做出“最重要的宏观决定”的重要时刻——金杜和《旁观者报》联手献上连载有声杂志的第二期。
The EU is the biggest market in the world, with a population of over 500 million people. For the UK, it represents 44 per cent of the country’s exports, while half of overseas investment to the UK comes from the EU. But the union is also flawed, and even proponents argue that it is in need of reform. As voters gear up for a referendum on continued EU membership – "the biggest macro decision" they will make in their lifetime – King & Wood Mallesons joined forces with The Spectator for the second in a series of podcasts.
本期有声杂志（英文）的讨论主题为英国退欧相关问题及利弊。
In this episode[1], we discussed the Brexit question – and its impact for business.
发言嘉宾 Contributors
Stephen Kon, 金杜律师事务所资深合伙人
Stephen Kon, senior partner, King & Wood Mallesons
Richard Reed, 果昔创始人， “英国在欧洲变强”支持者
Richard Reed, founder of Innocent and advocate of “Stronger In”
Matthew Elliott, “支持英国退出欧盟”创始人
Matthew Elliott, founder of Vote Leave
Fraser Nelson, 《旁观者报》编辑
Fraser Nelson, editor, The Spectator
讨论焦点 The talking points
Elliott: “我不认为英国退出欧盟会对就业产生影响。我觉得票选后的第一天，政府可以态度强硬和欧洲谈判，寻求新的合作方式。因为对于欧盟其他国家，英国是非常重要的一个出口国，其他成员国会急于和英国达成贸易协定，对此我信心十足。”
Elliott: “I don’t think jobs would be lost as a result of Brexit. I think, on day one after a referendum, the government would have a very strong hand to start negotiating a new relationship with Europe. I am very, very confident that because the UK is such a big export market for the rest of the EU, the other member states would very quickly want to have a trade deal with the UK.”
Reed: “想要从世界上最伟大的联盟中退出，放弃我们在其中的领导地位，这完全背离了我们的初衷。联盟让我们的经济更加强劲，让我们的国家更加安全，是为消费者提供低物价的保证，我们与欧盟是一体的。”
“如果退出欧盟，我们需要耗费大量的时间和精力才能恢复现有地位，这完全是在浪费时间。”
Reed: “Wanting to retreat from one of the great infrastructures of the world, in which we play a leadership role, is the absolute antithesis of what we stand for. Our role is to be part of the EU because it makes our country stronger economically, it makes our country safer and it ensures prices are cheaper for consumers.”
“What we would have to do if we came out of the EU is spend lots of time and energy trying desperately to get back into the situation we are in. It would be a total waste of time.”
Kon: “退出后，妄想和欧盟达成任何我们想要的协议是不现实的。协议需要28个成员国通过，我们无法保证最后结果。”
Kon: “There is a false assumption that if we leave, we can get whatever deal we want from the EU– that isn't necessarily going to follow. You would need 28 Member States to agree to that deal, and that will not necessarily come to pass.”
Elliott: “我们倾向于认为如果英国突然退出，一定会得到德国总理默克尔和法国总统奥朗德的支持，他们会对英国产品加收高关税。但我认为事情并不会这样发展，他们不是这样的人，世贸组织也不会允许这种做法。”
Elliott: “We often assume that if Britain were to vote to leave all of a sudden, we would get the backs up of Angela Merkel and President Hollande and they would say 'let's put huge tariffs on British goods'. I don’t think that would happen. I believe they are better people than that. I also believe the World Trade Organisation would not allow it to happen.”
Kon: “我不知道为什么会有人觉得退出欧盟，英国就不用按照和欧盟的协议规定向欧盟出口商品了。出口不会瞬间停止。向欧盟出口，不管国家大小，都需要遵从和欧盟签署的协议。退出欧盟的对我们不利的是我们不再能决定协议内容。”
“欧盟改革势在必行，这点已达成共识。我们可以赋予国会更多立法职责和权利来促进变革。我们可以自主掌握变革进程——对欧盟来说这个提议无可厚非。”
Kon: “I don’t know what makes anyone think that if you are outside of the EU you are not going to have to supply the EU on the terms of regulation that are in force in the EU. Suddenly it’s not going to disappear. If you are exporting to the whole of the EU, whether you are small or large, you are going to have to comply with EU regulation and the big down side of exiting is that you are going to have no part in determining what that regulation is.”
“There’s a general consensus that there’s a need for reform of the EU. Meaningful reforms we could make to the EU include giving Parliament more responsibility and power over legislation as it is enacted. We could establish a protocol for what ‘ever closer union’ means – that’s a doable proposition and not novel in an EU legal context.”
Reed: “首相完全有能力引领改革，就算欧盟保持现状，也会因为与英国的合作关系受益匪浅。”
Reed: “I am sure the Prime Minster can secure meaningful reform, but even if the EU doesn't change one per cent, it is still a relationship in which the benefits far outweigh the costs.”
注：
1 以上为该有声杂志的音频文字实录，由于访问限制，位于中国的访客将无法收听。This podcast is only available outside of China.
