市场综述 | 就业降温支撑美股创近期最大周涨幅，黄金飙升突破4300美元，伊朗局势缓和令油价回落
核心指数与宏观数据：
美股三大指数周五集体收涨，其中标普500指数上涨0.59%至7755.61点，纳斯达克指数上涨1.28%至26686.48点，道琼斯指数上涨0.28%至54036.93点。本周，三大指数均录得自4月中旬以来的最大周涨幅。大宗商品与债市方面，现货黄金大涨2.3%至4336美元/盎司；WTI原油与布伦特原油分别交投于77.5美元/桶和82.5美元/桶左右；10年期美债收益率报4.65%。
市场驱动逻辑：
意外走弱的就业数据为美联储维持利率不变提供了有力支撑，同时推动2年期美债收益率下行5个基点，美元指数随之回落。此外，据媒体报道，美国计划在霍尔木兹海峡达成协议并恢复航运后，解除对伊朗港口的封锁。这一地缘局势的缓和预期导致油价回落，进一步缓解了市场对通胀的担忧。
Market Wrap | Cooling Jobs Market Fuels Biggest Weekly Gains for US Equities Since Mid-April; Gold Surges Past $4,300 as Iran Tensions Ease to Pull Back Oil Prices
Key Indices & Macro Data:
The three major US stock indices closed higher on Friday, with the S&P 500 up 0.59% at 7,755.61, the Nasdaq Composite up 1.28% at 26,686.48, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.28% at 54,036.93. For the week, all three indices recorded their largest weekly gains since mid-April. In commodities and fixed income, spot gold surged 2.3% to $4,336 per ounce. WTI and Brent crude were trading at approximately $77.5 and $82.5 per barrel, respectively, while the 10-year US Treasury yield stood at 4.65%.
Market Drivers:
The surprisingly soft jobs data provided strong support for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates on hold, while pushing the 2-year US Treasury yield down by 5 basis points and causing the US Dollar Index to retreat. Additionally, media reports indicate that the US plans to lift its blockade on Iranian ports once an agreement regarding the Strait of Hormuz is reached and shipping resumes. This easing of geopolitical tensions led to a pullback in oil prices, further alleviating market concerns over inflation.
非农"爆冷"粉碎加息预期，纳指涨1.3%领涨美股全线反弹
就业市场急剧降温：
美国7月非农就业人数意外减少2.3万人，不仅大幅偏离市场预期的增加8万人，更低于所有经济学家预测区间的下限，为今年以来最差表现。与此同时，5月和6月的非农数据合计下修10.3万人，劳动参与率降至五年多以来的最低水平，进一步加深了劳动力市场持续降温的信号。
市场反应剧烈：
就业数据的急剧恶化令市场对美联储9月加息的预期骤然逆转——加息概率从55%骤降至44%。债汇市场同步作出反应：10年期美债收益率从4.68%跳水至4.65%，美元指数跌破99.5关口。
美股与个股表现：
美股三大指数周五全线走高，纳斯达克指数以1.28%的涨幅领涨，标普500上涨0.59%，道琼斯指数上涨0.28%。大型科技股集体走强，英伟达上涨1.6%，博通上涨1.0%。软件板块表现尤为亮眼：Atlassian在财报大幅超预期后暴涨31%，Cloudflare上涨7%并创下历史新高。
大宗商品与周度回顾：
现货黄金飙涨2.3%至4336美元/盎司，创下七周新高，本周累计上涨7%，为七个月以来的最佳单周表现。整周来看，美伊和谈预期主导油价走低，高盛维持布伦特原油80至90美元/桶的区间判断，认为在协议正式确认前油价将维持震荡格局。
下周展望：
下周，美国CPI数据与伊朗谈判进展将成为主导全球资产走向的"双引擎"。
Non-Farm Payrolls Shockingly Miss Estimates, Shattering Rate Hike Expectations; Nasdaq Surges 1.3% to Lead Broad US Equity Rally
Labor Market Cools Sharply:
The US non-farm payrolls for July unexpectedly declined by 23,000 jobs, missing the consensus forecast of an 80,000 increase by a wide margin and falling below the lowest estimate among all surveyed economists — marking the weakest reading so far this year. Compounding the downturn, May and June payrolls were revised downward by a combined 103,000 jobs, while the labor force participation rate dropped to its lowest level in over five years, further reinforcing signals of a cooling labor market.
Swift Market Reaction:
The dramatic deterioration in employment data triggered an abrupt reversal in market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September — with the implied probability plunging from 55% to 44%. Bond and currency markets reacted in tandem: the 10-year US Treasury yield dropped sharply from 4.68% to 4.65%, and the US Dollar Index broke below the 99.5 level.
US Equities & Stock Movers:
The three major US stock indices all closed higher on Friday, with the Nasdaq Composite leading the rally at +1.28%, followed by the S&P 500 at +0.59% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average at +0.28%. Mega-cap tech stocks rallied broadly, with NVIDIA gaining 1.6% and Broadcom rising 1.0%. The software sector was particularly outstanding: Atlassian surged 31% after reporting earnings that significantly exceeded expectations, while Cloudflare climbed 7% to hit a new all-time high.
Commodities & Weekly Recap:
Spot gold surged 2.3% to $4,336 per ounce, reaching a seven-week high and posting a 7% weekly gain — its best weekly performance in seven months. For the week overall, expectations of US-Iran negotiations weighed on oil prices. Goldman Sachs maintained its forecast of Brent crude trading within the $80–$90 per barrel range, noting that prices are likely to remain volatile until a deal is formally confirmed.
Week Ahead:
Next week, the US CPI data and developments in Iran negotiations will serve as the "dual engines" driving global asset markets.
花旗经济意外指数骤降，9月加息预期急速退潮
意外指数急转直下：
花旗美国经济意外指数在非农就业报告发布当日出现断崖式下跌，一举打破了此前持续上行的趋势。这一指标的急剧逆转，直观反映出实际经济数据与市场乐观预期之间出现了巨大的落差。
加息押注大幅回撤：
非农数据公布后，交易员迅速且大幅度地下调了对美联储加息的押注。在报告发布之前，市场普遍定价9月份加息的概率约为55%；而数据出炉后，这一概率几乎瞬间跌至40%附近，显示市场利率预期在短短数小时内发生了剧烈逆转。
Citi Economic Surprise Index Plunges as September Rate Hike Expectations Rapidly Unwind
Surprise Index in Sharp Reversal:
The Citi US Economic Surprise Index experienced a cliff-like drop on the day the non-farm payrolls report was released, abruptly breaking its previously sustained uptrend. This dramatic reversal in the indicator vividly reflects the enormous gap between actual economic data and the market's optimistic expectations.
Rate Hike Bets Scaled Back Sharply:
Following the release of the non-farm payrolls data, traders swiftly and significantly reduced their bets on Federal Reserve rate hikes. Prior to the report, markets had broadly priced in approximately a 55% probability of a rate hike in September. Immediately after the data was published, that probability plummeted to around 40%, illustrating a violent reversal in interest rate expectations within just a matter of hours.
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