20 July
New Knowledge
In the theory and practice of innovation and entrepreneurship, the bright-idea innovation belongs in the appendix.
New knowledge is not the most reliable or most predictable source of successful innovations. For all the visibility, glamour, and importance of science-based innovation, it is actually the least reliable and least predictable one. Knowledge-based innovation has the longest lead-time of any innovation. First, there is a long time span between the emergence of new knowledge, and its becoming applicable to technology. And then there is another long period before the new technology turns into products, processes, or services in the marketplace.
The introduction of innovation creates excitement and attracts a host of competitors, meaning that innovators have to be right the first time. They are unlikely to get a second chance. Here, even successful innovators almost immediately have far more company than they want and must prepare themselves to weather the storm that lies ahead. For example, Apple Computer invented the personal computer. IBM was able to wrest market leadership from Apple through creative imitation. Apple failed to maintain its leadership position and became a niche player because it failed to predict and respond to the competition it would face. In the theory and practice of innovation and entrepreneurship, the bright-idea innovation belongs in the appendix. But it should be appreciated and rewarded. It represents qualities that society needs: initiative, ambition, and ingenuity.
7月20日
新知识
在创新创业的理论与实践中，天才式创新属于附录。
新知识并不是成功创新最可靠、也不是最容易预测的来源。尽管以科学为基础的创新最引人注目、最具光彩，也十分重要，但它实际上是最不可靠、最难预测的一类创新。
以知识为基础的创新，拥有所有创新中最长的提前期。首先，从新知识出现，到它能够应用于技术，需要很长时间。之后，从新技术形成，到它转化为市场中的产品、流程或服务，又需要经历另一个漫长阶段。创新一旦推出，就会引发兴奋，并吸引大量竞争者。这意味着创新者第一次就必须做对，因为他们通常很难获得第二次机会。即使是成功的创新者，也会很快发现竞争者远多于自己所希望的数量，因此必须为即将到来的风暴做好准备。例如，苹果公司发明了个人电脑，而IBM通过创造性模仿夺走了市场领导地位。苹果未能预见并应对即将面对的竞争，因此未能维持领先地位，最终变成一家服务于细分市场的企业。在创新与企业家精神的理论和实践中，“好点子式创新”确实只能放在附录中。但它仍然应该得到欣赏和奖励，因为它体现了社会所需要的品质：主动性、抱负和创造力。
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