Why lower oil prices haven’t reduced ocean freight rates

Part 01

Lower crude oil prices do not

immediately translate into lower fuel

costs for carriers

The first point to clarify is the difference between two concepts.

When market news refers to "oil prices," it usually means international crude oil benchmarks such as Brent or West Texas Intermediate. Carriers, however, purchase and use marine fuels such as very low sulfur fuel oil and marine diesel.

The two are related, but they are not the same price.

The transmission from crude oil prices to carriers' actual fuel costs is also affected by:

•refining costs;

•fuel availability at different ports;

•fuel grades and sulfur requirements;

•purchasing schedules and long-term contracts;

•transportation and storage costs;

•regional supply conditions.

More importantly, carriers' fuel surcharges are not normally adjusted every day in line with spot oil prices.

For example, fuel-related charges are usually reviewed and adjusted periodically by carriers. This means that even if spot oil prices fall today, a fuel surcharge that has already been announced or is currently in effect may not change immediately until the next adjustment cycle.

Therefore, there is often a time lag between a decline in oil prices and any corresponding adjustment in ocean freight quotations.

Part 02

The core drivers of ocean freight 

rates are still cargo demand 

and available space

In the short term, the key factors determining freight rate movements are usually:

How much cargo needs to be moved, and how much effective capacity is available in the market.

Even if fuel costs fall slightly, freight rates may still rise when cargo volumes increase and available space becomes tighter.

In June 2026, U.S. containerized imports increased by approximately 8.2% year on year. One contributing factor was that some importers brought shipments forward in anticipation of future tariff and cost changes. When a large number of orders are front-loaded, booking demand can rise sharply within a short period.

At the same time, Drewry expected 46 blank sailings across major East–West trade lanes between mid-July and mid-August, accounting for around 6% of scheduled sailings. Asia–North Europe and Mediterranean services represented approximately 32% of those cancellations.

In other words, cargo demand may be brought forward at the same time as some scheduled capacity is removed or adjusted.

Under these conditions, even if oil prices decline, space supply and demand can continue to support higher freight rates.

Part 03

A small reduction in fuel cost can be

offset by larger increases in PSS, 

GRI, and other charges

Many cargo owners focus mainly on the fuel surcharge when assessing ocean freight costs, while overlooking the other components included in a quotation.

Even if the fuel-related component declines, the final all-in quotation may remain high if other charges rise at the same time.

For example, several carriers have announced new peak-season surcharges for Asia–Europe routes, with different effective dates and charge levels depending on the service and container type.

This means that any fuel-cost saving resulting from lower oil prices may quickly be offset by a new peak-season surcharge.

The practical result for cargo owners is therefore:

Oil prices may be falling in the news, while the actual ocean freight quotation remains unchanged or becomes even higher.

Part 04

Ocean freight rates reflect expectations for the coming weeks, while oil price news reflects the present

Another frequently overlooked characteristic of ocean freight quotations is that:

They reflect not only current costs, but also market and carrier expectations for the coming weeks.

Therefore, even if oil prices have just declined, carriers may not immediately reduce freight rates if they expect stronger demand, limited space, or continued route risk.

As of July 9, the Shanghai–Rotterdam spot rate had increased by approximately 5% in one week to USD 4,933 per 40-foot container, while the Shanghai–Genoa rate had risen by around 2% to USD 6,463 per 40-foot container.

This indicates that current Asia–Europe freight rates are being driven more by peak-season demand, space conditions, and future expectations than by a short-term movement in crude oil prices alone.

Part 05

Route risks have not gone away, 

so related costs will not 

decline immediately

A decline in oil prices does not mean that international shipping risks have declined at the same time.

Over the past period, developments in the Red Sea, the Suez Canal, the Strait of Hormuz, and other Middle East-related waters have affected route planning, insurance, vessel deployment, and marine fuel procurement.

Some carriers have introduced emergency bunker surcharges to cover fuel supply risks, procurement costs, and changes in fuel mix that are not fully captured by standard fuel-adjustment mechanisms. These additional fuel-related charges reflect the fact that fuel costs are influenced not only by market oil prices, but also by supply conditions, procurement factors, and fuel specifications.

Even if crude oil prices decline temporarily, the following risks may still remain:

•some services may continue to reroute;

•war-risk insurance and security costs may remain elevated;

•fuel supply may still be unstable in certain regions;

•vessel and container circulation may not yet have fully normalized.

As long as these conditions remain, the related costs will not immediately disappear from freight rates.

Part 06

Port, trucking, and rail costs do not 

follow oil price trends

In addition to ocean freight, the total logistics cost of a shipment includes many local and downstream expenses.

These may include:

•port handling;

•yard and warehousing costs;

•trucking;

•rail and barge transport;

•labor and equipment;

•appointments and waiting time;

•destination delivery.

The pricing cycles, supply-demand conditions, and adjustment mechanisms for these services do not necessarily move in line with international crude oil prices.

For example, inland fuel-related surcharges may be reviewed and adjusted on a weekly or biweekly basis, with adjustment levels varying by country and transport mode.

Therefore, a decline in crude oil prices does not mean that every cost across the supply chain will decrease at the same time.

Part 07

A common misjudgment: 

waiting for oil prices to fall further, 

hoping freight rates will decline

A common market situation is that cargo is already ready for shipment, but the cargo owner sees oil prices declining and decides to wait a few more days, expecting ocean freight rates to fall accordingly.

Several days later:

•a new PSS becomes effective;

•the original space is released;

•the sailing schedule changes;

•a blank sailing makes the next vessel tighter;

•the original quotation expires.

The new quotation may then be higher rather than lower.

This does not mean that every shipment should be booked immediately, nor does it mean freight rates can never decline.

The key point is to avoid:

Using oil prices as the only indicator for predicting the next movement in ocean freight rates.

International logistics pricing needs to be assessed across several variables. Oil price is only one of them.

Part 08

How should exporters assess 

whether ocean freight rates have 

room to decline?

When oil prices and ocean freight rates move in different directions, exporters should pay attention to the following factors.

Key questions include:

•Is space currently sufficient on the route?

•Are blank sailings scheduled?

•Is there a risk of rolled cargo or sailing changes?

•Is the following sailing likely to be tighter?

Space supply and demand usually affect spot freight rates more directly than short-term oil price movements.

When requesting a quotation, it is advisable to clarify:

•the base ocean freight;

•the fuel surcharge;

•whether PSS or GRI applies;

•whether any emergency surcharge is included;

•which destination charges are excluded.

Only after the cost structure is separated can it be understood which component has or has not declined.

Fuel surcharges may be adjusted based on:

•monthly reviews;

•quarterly reviews;

•a specific price-calculation period;

•temporary carrier announcements.

Therefore, the freight quotation for a given day cannot be estimated simply from that day’s oil price.

Even if costs are relatively low on the inquiry date, the final cost may still change if the actual loading date falls within a new PSS, GRI, or fuel-surcharge period.

The following should be confirmed:

•quotation validity;

•price-calculation date;

•whether the booking date or loading date determines the charge;

•whether a sailing delay triggers recalculation.

Some quotations may show a lower base ocean freight rate, but higher surcharges, destination charges, or local fees.

The more meaningful comparison is:

•how much the entire shipment will ultimately cost;

•which charges are fixed;

•which charges may change;

•what additional costs may arise in the event of an exception.

For orders with:

•clear delivery deadlines;

•limited profit margins;

•large shipment volumes;

•strict project milestones;

•confirmed delivery commitments;

It is generally more important to secure a feasible solution and available space first than to wait for a possible small decline in freight rates.

For critical orders, the cost of missing a sailing is often greater than the freight savings that may be achieved by waiting.

Part 09

The key issue is not oil prices alone, 

but the overall cost structure

Oil price movements are certainly worth monitoring, but oil prices alone are not enough to determine the final logistics cost of a shipment.

A more complete assessment needs to consider:

•base ocean freight;

•fuel-related surcharges;

•PSS, GRI, and other market surcharges;

•space and sailing conditions;

•blank sailings and route adjustments;

•origin and destination charges;

•potential risks during transportation.

In its daily operations, D.B. Group focuses on helping clients understand these costs and conditions separately, rather than simply providing one total figure.

When the cost structure, quotation validity, space status, and potential changes are explained clearly in advance, exporters have a more reliable basis for preparing product quotations, scheduling orders, and making delivery commitments.

Conclusion

A decline in oil prices without a corresponding decline in ocean freight rates does not mean that the market has lost its logic.

The actual logic is:

Ocean freight rates have never been a simple calculation based on oil prices. They are the combined result of fuel costs, space supply and demand, peak-season surcharges, route risks, port efficiency, and market expectations.

Oil prices may decline, but freight rates may remain high or even continue rising if:

•cargo volumes are being front-loaded;

•effective space remains tight;

•carriers continue to manage capacity through blank sailings;

•PSS, GRI, and other charges are increasing;

•route and insurance risks remain.

For exporters, it is more useful to understand the cost structure and execution conditions behind a quotation than to judge freight rates based only on oil prices.

Because what ultimately affects a shipment’s profitability and delivery result is not simply whether oil prices have risen or fallen, but whether:

the final logistics solution is transparent, stable, and genuinely executable.

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