01.Quality Adjustment at Scale: Hedonic versus Exact Demand-Based Price Indices 大规模质量调整：享乐主义价格指数与基于需求的精确价格指数

Gabriel Ehrlich John Haltiwanger Ron Jarmin David Johnson Ed Olivares Luke Pardue Matthew D. Shapiro Laura Yi Zhao

摘要 Item-level transactions data yield cost-of-living indices that can account for quality change and consumer substitution. Transactions data require confronting the rapid turnover of items because prices of new and existing products are interrelated in equilibrium. This paper evaluates multiple approaches to measuring quality change at scale. It shows that a hedonic superlative approach—using econometrics or machine learning for hedonic estimation combined with index formulas that require simultaneous observation of item-level price and expenditure—yields improved measures of the cost of living. Accounting for ubiquitous quality change and for consumer substitution yields lower measures of inflation than traditional, official methods.

物品级交易数据产生生活成本指数，可以反映质量变化和消费者替代。交易数据需要面对商品快速周转的情况，因为新旧产品的价格在均衡中相互关联。本文评估了多种大规模质量变化测量方法。研究显示，利用计量经济学或机器学习进行享乐估计，结合需要同时观察项目层级价格和支出的指数公式，能够更好地衡量生活成本。考虑普遍的质量变化和消费者替代，得出的通胀指标低于传统官方方法。

02.Quota versus Quality? Long-Term Gains from an Unusual Gender Quota 配额与质量？特殊性别配额带来的长期收益

Ursina Schaede Ville Mankki

摘要 We evaluate equity-efficiency trade-offs from admissions quotas by examining effects on output once beneficiaries start producing in the relevant industry. We estimate the impact of abolishing a 40 percent quota for male primary school teachers on their pupils' long-run outcomes. We combine this reform with the timing of union-bargained teacher retirements to isolate quasi-random variation in male quota teachers. Pupils exposed to male quota teachers transition more smoothly to postcompulsory education and have higher educational attainment and labor force attachment at age 25. Evidence suggests the quota improved the allocation of talent by mending imperfections in the unconstrained selection process.

我们通过评估受益人开始在相关行业生产后对产出的影响，评估招生配额带来的公平与效率权衡。我们估算取消男性小学教师40%配额对学生长期发展的影响。我们将这项改革与工会谈判教师退休的时间安排相结合，以隔离男性配额教师的准随机变异。接触男性配额教师的学生在25岁时更容易顺利过渡到后义务教育，并且在25岁时具备更高的教育水平和劳动力依附。证据表明，配额通过弥补无限制选拔过程中的缺陷，改善了人才分配。

03.The Private Provision of Public Services: Evidence from Random Assignment in Medicaid 公共服务的私人提供：医疗补助随机分配的证据

Danil Agafiev Macambira Michael Geruso Anthony Lollo Chima D. Ndumele Jacob Wallace

摘要 This paper examines the effects of privatizing social health insurance. We exploit a natural experiment in Medicaid, wherein nearly 100,000 enrollees were randomly assigned between a publicly operated fee-for-service system and private managed care. Managed care reduced costs by 5.6 percent via cost-effective substitutions among prescription drugs and via lower prices for outpatient services. We present evidence that pharmacy utilization management was the key mechanism reducing overuse and encouraging substitution to lower-cost drugs without decreasing observed quality. In contrast, privatizing medical benefits led to only modest savings and was associated with decreased health care quality and consumer satisfaction.

本文探讨了私有化社会健康保险的影响。我们利用医疗补助中的一个自然实验，近10万名参保者被随机分配在公共运营的按服务收费系统和私人管理式医疗之间。管理式医疗通过处方药的成本效益替代和门诊服务价格降低，降低了5.6%的成本。我们提出证据表明，药房利用管理是减少过度使用并鼓励替代低价药物的关键机制，同时不降低观察到的药品质量。相比之下，医疗福利私有化仅带来有限的节省，且与医疗质量和消费者满意度下降相关。

04.Mergers, Foreign Competition, and Jobs: Evidence from the US Appliance Industry 合并、外国竞争与就业：来自美国家电行业的证据

Felix Montag

摘要 Policy choices often create trade-offs between workers and consumers. I examine how foreign competition alters the consumer welfare and domestic employment effects of mergers. I construct a model incorporating consumer demand, endogenous product portfolios, and employment decisions. Applying the model to Whirlpool's acquisition of Maytag in the appliance industry, I compare the observed merger to a counterfactual acquisition by a foreign buyer. Although Whirlpool's acquisition decreased consumer welfare by $271 million annually, it preserved 797 domestic jobs. These jobs must therefore be valued at more than $344,000 per year for the domestic employment benefits to offset the consumer harm.

政策选择常常在工人与消费者之间产生权衡。我研究外国竞争如何改变合并对消费者福利和国内就业的影响。我构建了一个结合消费者需求、内生产品组合和就业决策的模型。将该模型应用于惠而浦收购家电行业的美泰集团，我将观察到的合并比作外国买家的反事实收购。尽管惠而浦的收购每年减少了消费者福利2.71亿美元，但仍保留了797个国内就业岗位。因此，这些工作岗位的价值必须超过每年344,000美元，才能获得国内就业福利以抵消消费者的损失。

05.Elite Universities and the Intergenerational Transmission of Human and Social Capital 精英大学与人力和社会资本的代际传递

Andrés Barrios-Fernández Christopher Neilson Seth Zimmerman

摘要 Do elite colleges help talented students join the social elite or help incumbent elites retain their positions? We combine intergenerationally linked data from Chile with a regression discontinuity design to show that, looking across generations, elite colleges do both. Lower-status individuals who gain admission to elite college programs transform their children's social environment. Children become more likely to attend high-status private schools and colleges and to live near and befriend high-status peers. In contrast, academic achievement is unaffected. Simulations combining descriptive and quasi-experimental findings show that elite colleges tighten the link between social and human capital while decreasing intergenerational social mobility.

精英大学是帮助有才华的学生进入社会精英，还是帮助现有精英保住他们的职位？我们将智利的代际关联数据与回归不连续设计结合，显示跨代观察，精英大学同时兼顾两者。进入精英大学项目的低地位人士改变了孩子的社交环境。孩子们更有可能就读于高地位的私立学校和大学，并与高地位的同龄人生活并结交友谊。相比之下，学业成就不受影响。结合描述性和准实验结果的模拟显示，精英大学在减少代际社会流动性的情况下，紧密地加紧了社会资本与人力资本之间的联系。

06.Spatial Spillovers of Conflict in Somalia 索马里冲突的空间溢出

Marco Alfano Thomas Cornelissen

摘要 Conflict along transportation routes during Somalia's al-Shabaab insurgency significantly increases maize prices at distant locations, decreasing food security, health, and education. Estimated conflict risk has strong price effects independently of realized conflict, highlighting the importance of safety concerns. A model of least-cost route choice in the presence of conflict reveals that more and shorter alternative routes to circumvent conflict can lower prices but their effectiveness diminishes as violence becomes more correlated across routes. Alternatively, securing key transportation routes would alleviate price increases. A market access approach suggests spatial spillovers of conflict also matter for prices of more general baskets of food and nonfood items.

索马里青年党叛乱期间沿交通路线的冲突显著推高了远方地区的玉米价格，降低了粮食安全、健康和教育。估算的冲突风险在价格影响下独立于实际冲突，凸显了安全问题的重要性。在冲突存在下，最低成本路线选择模型显示，更多且更短的替代路线可以降低价格，但随着暴力在各路线间的相关性加深，其效果会减弱。或者，保障关键交通路线的安全将缓解价格上涨。市场准入方法表明，空间上的冲突溢出也影响了更广泛的食品篮子和非食品商品的价格。

07.Friendship Networks and Political Opinions 友谊网络与政治观点

Yann Algan Nicolò Dalvit Quoc-Anh Do Alexis Le Chapelain Yves Zenou

摘要 We examine how social interactions and friendships shape students' political opinions in a natural experiment at Sciences Po, a leading French university specializing in social and political sciences. The quasi-random assignment of students into short-term integration groups before their academic curriculum reduces political opinion gaps and fosters friendship formation. Using same-group membership as an instrumental variable for friendship, we find that friendship reduces opinion differences by 44 percent of the mean opinion gap. Our evidence supports a homophily-enforced mechanism: Friendships form among initially politically similar students, leading them to join political associations together, reinforcing their similarity.

我们在法国领先的社会与政治科学大学政治学院（Sciences Po）进行一个自然实验，探讨社会互动和友谊如何塑造学生的政治观点。在学术课程开始前，准随机分配学生到短期融合小组，缩小了政治意见鸿沟，促进友谊的建立。以同群体成员身份作为友谊的工具变量，我们发现友谊能将意见差异减少平均意见差距的44%。我们的证据支持一种同质性强制机制：最初政治上相似的学生之间建立友谊，促使他们加入政治协会，强化彼此的相似性。

08.Identifying Preference for Early Resolution from Asset Prices 从资产价格中识别早期解决偏好

Hengjie Ai Ravi Bansal Hongye Guo Amir Yaron

摘要 This paper develops an asset market-based test for preference for the timing of resolution of uncertainty. Our main theorem provides a characterization of preference for early resolution of uncertainty in terms of the risk premium realized during the period when the informativeness of macroeconomic announcements is resolved. Empirically, we find support for preference for early resolution of uncertainty based on evidence on the dynamics of the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options before Federal Open Market Committee announcements.

本文开发了基于资产市场的不确定性解决时机偏好测试。我们的主定理为宏观经济公告信息量解决期间实现的风险溢价，描述了早期解决不确定性偏好。从实证上看，基于联邦公开市场委员会公告前标普500指数期权隐含波动率动态的证据，支持优先提前解决不确定性。

来源：《American Economic Review》

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