Zohr development could lead to the end of Egyptian LNG imports.
Zohr 天然气开发可能为埃及的液化天然气进口画上句点。
位于埃及的深水Zohr 天然气发现
The deepwater Zohr gas discovery in Egypt is of major significance to the Eastern Mediterranean region. As the largest gas find in the Mediterranean Sea, Zohr has the potential to supply much of Egypt’s increasing domestic gas demand and will likely have an impact on regional gas commercialisation plans, according to new analysis from IHS (NYSE: IHS), the leading global source of critical information and insight.
埃及的深水 Zohr 天然气发现对于东地中海地区具有重大意义。根据全球关键信息和见解的优质来源 IHS Energy (纽交所代码: IHS)表示，作为地中海的最大天然气发现，Zohr 有潜力满足埃及国内日渐增长的天然气需求，并极有可能影响区域性天然气商业化计划。
Eni’s announcement in late August describing deepwater discovery well, Zohr 1X NFW, put initial potential reserves at an estimated 30 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas, or 5.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe). IHS Energy analysis estimates that the find has significant technical, commercial and strategic implications for the gas market in Egypt, the region and the industry, where Egypt’s access to monetisation infrastructure will likely put it ahead of rivals if commercial terms are right.
ENI 集团在八月末发布一份公告，描述了 Zohr 1X NFW 这口深水发现井。公告称，预计该井的原始潜在储量为，天然气 30 万亿立方英尺 (Tcf)、油当量 (boe) 55 亿桶。IHS Energy 分析预估，深水 Zohr 天然气发现对于埃及天然气市场、附近地区和天然气行业都具有重要的技术、商业与策略启示，在该行业，如果商业条款合适，埃及对货币化基础设施的享用权将极可能使其领先竞争对手。
“Egypt has fast-growing domestic demand and decreasing production at the same time, so the Zohr discovery represents a major source of relief in the context of increasing gas imports,” said Mohamed Zine, regional director for Africa at IHS Energy.
“埃及的国内天然气需求在快速增长，与此同时，它的天然气开采却在不断下降;所以，在天然气进口不断增加的环境之下，Zohr 天然气发现可以让埃及大松一口气，”IHS Energy 非洲市场的区域总监 Mohamed Zine 说道。
Egypt used to be an exporter of gas, but the country has been facing increasing energy deficits over the last four years.
埃及曾经是天然气出口国，但在过去四年，它的能源赤字在不断增长。
Before the Arab Spring in 2011, the country had to run its existing LNG export plants below capacity due to lack of gas production. The existing plants in Idku and Damietta have export capacity of almost 13 Million Metric Tons annually (MMt/y), while Egypt also has export pipelines in place to Jordan and Israel. However, as a result of the demand and production imbalance, all of the gas originally slated for exports has been diverted to supply the domestic market, with the Jordan pipeline now used to reverse gas flows to Egypt from Jordan’s LNG import facilities.
2011 年的阿拉伯之春之前，由于缺乏天然气开采，埃及不得不在低于产能的情况下运营其现有的液化天然气出口厂。位于 Idku 和 Damietta 的出口厂的出口产能接近 13 百万公吨每年(MMt/y)，同时，埃及也有已铺设就位的出口管道通往约旦和以色列。但是，由于需求与生产的不平衡，所有原计划用于出口的天然气现已分流至供应国内市场，通往约旦的管道现在则用于将天然气流从约旦的液化天然气进口设施倒流回埃及。
“While there are hopes that Egypt’s exports may be revived at some stage, the immediate focus for Zohr will be on the domestic market”, said Mohammed Zine.
Mohammed Zine 说：“虽然埃及的天然气出口在一定阶段可能有望得以复苏，但 Zohr 天然气发现的迫切焦点是埃及国内市场。”
Moreover, the imbalance for domestic needs is such that Egypt needs more big discoveries to have a significant impact on the regional gas market, or make headway with ongoing negotiations to host regional gas discoveries for export through its facilities.
此外，国内市场需求的不平衡还在于，埃及需要更多大规模的天然气发现，来对区域性天然气市场产生重大影响;或者是，埃及要在正在进行中的谈判中取得进展，为经过该国设施的天然气出口提供区域性天然气发现。
Zohr development will also depend largely on the gas price offered by the Egyptian government. Gas prices have been increasing, with Eni recently obtaining prices of $5.88/MMbtu. In addition, liberalisation of the Egyptian energy sector may allow higher-priced gas to be sold directly to industrial buyers rather than to state-owned companies, a point that is likely to encourage further exploration and may yet help Egypt towards newly framed ambitions to act as a regional gas hub.
Zohr 天然气开发在很大程度上还取决于埃及政府开出的天然气价格。天然气价格一直在上涨，ENI 集团最近拿到的价格为 $5.88/MMbtu。此外，埃及能源领域自由化可能使更高定价的天然气直接销售给工业用户，而非国有企业。这一点极可能刺激进一步的天然气勘探，而且还可能帮助埃及朝其新成形的雄心——成为区域性的天然气中心——迈进。
（来源：金正纵横油气半月刊；翻译事业部编译）
