As U.S. oil fell to a six-year low below $41 a barrel on Wednesday, an increasing number of analysts and traders are saying crude could drop into the $30s—and soon.
本周三，美国油价跌到了41美元/桶----六年来的最低值。越来越多的分析师和商人预测，不久后原油价格将跌破30美元。
The move to a price last seen at the height of the financial crisis, in February 2009, could come amid a seasonal falloff in demand, coupled with concerns about the Chinese economy and the continuing global glut of crude. Cheaper oil would bring further joy to consumers and businesses around the globe, but more pain for everyone from Russian budget officials to U.S. shale-oil drillers. It would also test the limits of oil storage facilities around the globe, which are already filling up to the brim.
上一次油价暴跌发生在2009年2月的经济危机高峰期，起因于原油需求季节性下降，中国经济前景堪忧，以及全球原油持续供过于求。原油降价，给全球的消费者和企业带来了更大的欢乐，然而确使俄罗斯预算官员以及美国页岩油钻井工人很是痛苦。此外，这也是对全球储油设施极限的考验，其早已装了满满的石油了。
“Given where we are now, there is a 90% likelihood that we will dip into the $30s,” said Chris Main, oil strategist at Citigroup Inc.
花旗集团的石油策略师Chris Main表示：“就目前的情况来看，有90%的可能性，我们的油价将跌破30美元。”
A 40% price rally in the spring took oil to above $60 a barrel, offering hope that the worst of oil’s yearlong slump was over as investors bet that low prices would lead to cuts in production big enough to balance the market.
今天春天，油价有40%的上涨幅度，达到每桶60美元多。这让人们相信，持续一年的油价暴跌最坏情况已经过去了，因为投资者断定，低油价将导致产量下降，而这足以平衡市场。
But the price is falling again. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. price gauge, fell more than 4% to $40.80 a barrel after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that U.S. oil inventories unexpectedly rose last week, by 2.6 million barrels. Analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had predicted supplies would decline by 1.1 million barrels on the week.
但是，油价却再次下跌了。周三，美国EIA报道，上周美国原油库存意外增加了260万桶之后，美国原油定价基准WTI下降了4%多，至40.80美元/桶。据华尔街日报调查的分析师预测，本周原油供应将减少110万桶。
Last week, a surprise devaluation of the yuan sparked fears about a hard landing in China, the world’s second-biggest oil consumer.
上周，人民币意外贬值引起人们对中国经济硬着陆的惶恐，而中国是全球第二大石油消费国。
The market is also now preparing for millions of barrels of Iranian oil, after the nuclear deal struck between global powers and Tehran in June promised a lifting of some sanctions on the country’s crude. This will add to the glut out of the U.S., where oil supply has held up near multidecade highs and that from other major producers ramping up output.
同时，6月核协议在世界大国和德黑兰之间达成，允诺取消对伊朗原油的制裁之后，市场也对即将到来的百万桶伊朗石油做好了准备。这将加剧美国之外的原油供过于求的情况。美国石油供应已经达到几十年来新高，美国之外石油供应过剩主要由于其他主要生产者增加产量。
“We are seeing the final act of the China-led commodity supercycle right now and that is affecting oil,” said Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of IHS Inc., a long-time chronicler of the energy industry. “And with the current oversupply on the market and the specter of the return of Iranian oil, we could certainly revisit the lows of the financial crisis.”
IHS的副主席，能源行业长期年代史编者Daniel Yergin说：我们正在期待中国目前引领的大宗商品超级周期的最后一幕，这将对石油造成影响。伴着目前市场供应过剩以及伊朗石油重返舞台的阴霾，我们必将再次回到经济危机时的低油价日子。
The oil-price falls have led gas prices to plunge by more than a fifth at U.S. gas stations and has been credited by economists with giving a boost to consumption in parts of Europe, as the savings put more money into people’s pockets.
油价下跌已经导致美国加油站的汽油价格下降20%多，经济学家认为，这将促进欧洲各地的汽油消耗量，因为这给人们省了很多钱。
To be sure, most analysts still expect prices to bottom out soon and trudge toward $70 a barrel by the end of next year.
当然，大部分分析师希望油价能早日见底回升，争取到明年年底，达到70美元/每桶。
But some are eyeing a list of further threats this fall, with the end of the summer vacation driving season and as refineries in the U.S., Europe and Asia go into regular maintenance.
但是，一些分析师也看到了，随着暑假驾驶季节结束，美国、欧洲以及亚洲炼油厂回到常规维持阶段，今年秋天，人们将面临一系列更加严重的威胁。
Carsten Fritsch, senior commodity analyst at Commerzbank AG, said that the coming maintenance season and worries over Chinese growth could easily push WTI into the $30 range in the coming months.
德国商业银行大宗商品高级分析师Carsten Fritsch表示，接下来的维持季节以及对中国经济增长的堪忧很容易在接下来的几个月将WTI推向30美元。
Andrew Lipow, president of Houston-based consultancy Lipow Oil Associates, said that the pressure on oil will continue until next March as inventories build up with the maintenance season. Mr. Lipow has a price target of $32 to $34 a barrel for WTI in the next six months.
休斯顿石油咨询公司Lipow Associates总裁Andrew Lipow表示，由于库存随着维持季节而增加，石油压力将持续到明年三月份。在接下来的六个月里，Lipow先生认为WTI将在每桶32至34美元之间。
（来源：金正纵横翻译事业部编译）
