Oil Prices: What’s Behind the Drop? Simple Economics
油价：下跌的背后是什么?简单的经济学
The oil industry, with its history of booms and busts, is in a new downturn.
石油行业，伴随着它的繁荣和萧条的历史，现在已经进入到一个新的衰退期。
Earnings are down for companies that have made record profits in recent years, forcing them to decommission rigs and sharply cut investments in exploration and production. More than 100,000 oil workers have lost their jobs, and manufacturing of drilling and production equipment has fallen sharply.
对于那些已经在最近几年取得了创纪录的利润的公司，现在公司盈利下降，迫使他们关停钻机，并且大幅削减勘探和开发投资。超过10万石油工人失业，并且钻井和生产设备的数量也大幅下滑。
The cause is the plunging price of a barrel of oil, which has been cut roughly in half since June 2014, reaching levels last seen during the depths of the 2009 recession.
造成这种状况的原因是单桶原油价格的下降，自2014年6月已来已大幅下降了约一半，达到了在2009年经济衰退以来的最低值。
Executives think it will be years before oil returns to $90 or $100 a barrel, pretty much the norm over the last decade.
一些行业高管认为油价重返90或100美元/桶还需要好几年，而这个价格在过去的十年里几乎是常态。
What’s the current price of oil?
那目前油价如何呢?
Brent crude, the main international benchmark, was trading around $50 a barrel on Wednesday.
美国基准的原油价格是在大约46美元/桶。
The American benchmark was at around $46 a barrel.
作为主要的国际基准的布伦特原油，周三的交易价格约为50美元/桶。
Why has the price of oil been dropping so fast? Why now?
为什么油价下跌得如此之快?且为何又偏偏发生在现在?
This a complicated question, but it boils down to the simple economics of supply and demand.
这是一个复杂的问题，但也可以将其归结为简单的经济学，即供需关系。
United States domestic production has nearly doubled over the last six years, pushing out oil imports that need to find another home. Saudi, Nigerian and Algerian oil that once was sold in the United States is suddenly competing for Asian markets, and the producers are forced to drop prices. Canadian and Iraqi oil production and exports are rising year after year. Even the Russians, with all their economic problems, manage to keep pumping.
在过去六年里，美国国内石油产量几乎翻倍，进口需求大大减小。沙特，尼日利亚以及阿尔及利亚的石油曾经卖给美国，而现在突然开始竞争亚洲市场份额，而且不得不降价。加拿大和伊拉克石油产量及出口量都在逐年增加。甚至有很多经济问题的俄罗斯也在保持原油产量。
On the demand side, the economies of Europe and developing countries are weakening and vehicles are becoming more energy-efficient. So demand for fuel is lagging a bit.
在需求方面，欧洲和发展中国家需求量正在减弱，而且车辆也变得更加节能。总体来看，燃料的需求量在下降。
原油价格走势图
Who benefits from the price drop?
谁从价格下跌中获益?
Any motorist can tell you that gasoline prices have dropped more than a dollar a gallon. Diesel, heating oil and natural gas prices have also fallen sharply. Households are likely to spend $750 less on gas this year because of the oil prices, the United States Energy Information Administration said in January. Europeans and consumers around the world will enjoy similar benefits.
任何一个汽车驾驶员都会告诉你汽油的价格一加仑降了一美元多。柴油，燃料油以及天然气的价格也在暴跌。美国能源情报署1月表示，由于油价下跌，美国每个家庭今年在汽油上花费的价格将少于750美元。欧洲以及全世界消费者也将享受同样的利益。
Who loses?
谁损失?
For starters, oil-producing countries and states. Venezuela, Iran, Nigeria, Ecuador, Brazil and Russia are just a few petrostates that will suffer economic and perhaps even political turbulence. Persian Gulf states are likely to invest less money around the world, and they may cut aid to countries like Egypt.
首先，石油生产国家和地区将会遭受损失。委内瑞拉、伊朗、尼日利亚、厄瓜多尔、巴西以及俄罗斯是少数遭受经济，甚至政治动荡的石油国家。波斯湾国家在全球的投资额会减少，他们可能会停止对某些国家进行援助，例如埃及。
In the United States, Alaska, North Dakota, Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana will face economic challenges. Some smaller oil companies that are heavily in debt may go out of business, pressuring some banks that lend to them.
在美国，阿拉斯加、北达科他州、德克萨斯州，阿拉巴马州以及路易斯安那州都将面临经济挑战。一些背负严重债务的小型石油公司将面临倒闭，迫使一些银行借钱给他们。
What happened to OPEC?
欧佩克发生了什么?
A central factor in the sharp price drops, analysts say, is the continuing unwillingness of OPEC, a cartel of oil producers, to intervene to stabilize markets that are widely viewed as oversupplied. Prices of OPEC’s benchmark crude oil have fallen about 40 percent since the organization declined to cut production at a 2014 meeting in Vienna.
分析师指出，油价暴跌的关键因素是石油输出国联盟欧佩克仍然不愿意出面干涉，来使现在公认的供过于求的市场趋于稳定。自从欧佩克在2014年维也纳会议上拒绝降低产量以来，其标准原油价格已经降了40%左右。
Iran, Venezuela and Algeria have been pressing the cartel to cut production to firm up prices, but Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other gulf allies are refusing to do so. At the same time, Iraq is actually pumping more.
伊朗、委内瑞拉以及阿尔及利亚极力争取说服欧佩克减产，使油价稳定，但沙特阿拉伯，阿联酋以及其他海湾联盟国拒绝此做法。同时，伊拉克实际上也在增加产量。
Saudi officials have said that if they cut production and prices go up, they will lose market share and merely benefit their competitors. They say they are willing to see oil prices go much lower, but some oil analysts think they are merely bluffing.
沙特官员表示，如果他们降低产量，油价上升，他们将会失去市场份额，而最终获益的则是他们的竞争对手。沙特表示，他们宁愿油价再低一些，但一些石油分析师认为沙特只不过是在招摇撞骗罢了。
The death of King Abdullah in January has prompted speculation that Saudi Arabia could shift direction, and there has been some softening in the Saudi public position in recent days. But for the immediate future, most analysts say the Saudi royal family will resist any sharp changes in policy, especially as it tries to navigate multiple foreign policy challenges, like the chaos in neighboring Yemen.
1月份阿卜杜拉国王去世，激起很多沙特阿拉伯将改变方向的推测。近日，沙特的公开立场也出现放软迹象。但大部分分析师表示， 沙特王室近期仍旧不会在政策方面做出巨大改变，尤其是当他们在面临很多外来挑战的时候，像邻国也门动乱。
If prices remain low for a year or longer, the newly crowned King Salman may find it difficult to persuade other OPEC members to keep steady against the financial strains. The International Monetary Fund estimates that the revenues of Saudi Arabia and its Persian Gulf allies will slip by $300 billion this year.
如果油价在一年或更长时间内一直保持低位，最新上任的国王萨尔曼将很难说服其他欧佩克成员国保持稳定以应对资金压力。国际货币基金组织估计沙特阿拉伯及其他波斯湾联盟国的总收入将在今年减少3000亿美元。
Is there a conspiracy to bring the price of oil down?
油价下跌是阴谋论吗?
There are a number of conspiracy theories floating around. Even some oil executives are quietly noting that the Saudis want to hurt Russia and Iran, and so does the United States — motivation enough for the two oil-producing nations to force down prices. Dropping oil prices in the 1980s did help bring down the Soviet Union, after all.
关于油价下跌，有很多种阴谋论的说法。甚至一些石油高管都在悄悄说沙特想要打压俄罗斯和伊朗，美国也一样。对这两个产油大国强制降低油价下跌，动机很明显。毕竟20世纪80年代油价下跌的确打倒了前苏联。
But there is no evidence to support the conspiracy theories, and Saudi Arabia and the United States rarely coordinate smoothly. And the Obama administration is hardly in a position to coordinate the drilling of hundreds of oil companies seeking profits and answering to their shareholders.
但目前还没有证据支持这些阴谋论，沙特和美国只不过是配合得很好罢了。然而，奥巴马政府很难协调数以百计的石油公司通过钻井采油来寻求利益并对他们的股东负责。
When are oil prices likely to recover?
油价什么时候会上涨?
Not anytime soon. Oil production is still increasing in the United States and some other countries.
不会很快。美国以及一些其他国家石油产量仍在增加。
But production is likely to begin declining in the second half of the year, and then crude prices will also begin to recover in a lasting way. The history of oil is of booms and busts followed by more of the same.
但是，石油产量在下半年很可能会开始下降，然后原油价格也将持续上涨。石油历史就是由一系列相同的繁荣和萧条交替而成。
(来源：金正纵横翻译事业部编译)