Palladium tops $2,000 in record-breaking rally before gains ebb

钯金的唯一出路是向上。图片由Aaron Chung通过Flickr提供

The only way for palladium is up. Image courtesy of Aaron Chung via Flickr

钯金首次突破每盎司2,000美元，延续了在全球持续赤字的推动下的年度涨幅，随后随着获利回吐的出现而下滑。

钯金今年以来累计上涨了59％，市场观察家称这种缺口将难以弥补。对于主要用于汽车催化剂的金属生产商来说，这是个好消息，他们的股票激增。

Palladium rose above $2,000 an ounce for the first time, extending an annual advance powered by a sustained global deficit, before slipping as profit-taking emerged.

Palladium has gained as much as 59% this year, with market watchers saying the shortfall will be hard to fill. That’s great news for producers of the metal, used mainly in autocatalysts, which have seen their shares surge.

花旗银行预测，价格上涨可能会在明年上半年使价格上涨至2500美元

排名第一的矿商MMC Norilsk Nickel PJSC在2019年攀升了50％。对于南非铂金生产商而言，其影响更为显着，他们与主要金属一起开采了钯金。FTSE / JSE非洲铂金矿业指数今年已增长了两倍，是有史以来最大的年度涨幅。

No. 1 miner MMC Norilsk Nickel PJSC has climbed 50% in 2019. The effect has been even more dramatic for South African platinum producers, which dig up palladium alongside their primary metal. The FTSE/JSE Africa Platinum Mining Index has tripled this year, the biggest-ever annual gain.

盛宝银行A / S商品策略主管Ole Hansen表示，另一方面，较高的价格不会对汽车制造商造成太大影响，因为钯金仅占总生产成本的一小部分。

On the other hand, higher prices don’t affect carmakers too much, because palladium is only a small part of the overall production cost, said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S.

他说：“矿业公司和投机商都从持续增长中获得了回报。”

现货钯金上涨1.1％，至每盎司2,000.35美元，随后在纽约上午11:58跌至1,947.07美元。

“The mining companies and speculators both reap the reward from the continued surge,” he said.

Spot palladium climbed as much as 1.1% to $2,000.35 an ounce, before dropping to $1,947.07 at 11:58 a.m. in New York.

汉森说，“现阶段很难突破2000美元的水平”，他看到了“获利回吐”的出现。

凯投宏观助理大宗商品经济学家基兰·克兰西（Kieran Clancy）周二在电话中说：“您看到金价不断上涨，达到这些阻力位然后回落。” “基本故事确实没有改变。

The $2000 level “proved to be a nut hard to crack at this stage,” Hansen said, who saw “profit taking” emerging.

“You’re seeing it push higher and higher and hit these resistance levels and pull back,” Kieran Clancy, assistant commodities economist at Capital Economics, said by phone Tuesday. “The fundamental story really hasn’t changed.”

钯金飙升，因为更严格的排放法规刺激了需求，而供应尚未能做出反应。花旗集团（Citigroup Inc.）预测，价格上涨可能会在明年上半年使价格上涨至2500美元。主要生产国南非的停电损害了本月的矿山运营，助长了收益。

BMO Capital Markets的Tai Wong说：“在大多数情况下，高价格的治愈方法是高价格，而不是钯。” 这是指原材料中的一种观念，即反弹会引发新的产出，触发条件，然后回落涨势。

Wong说：“似乎没有任何合理价格的新现货供应。” “因此它可能会从这里继续走高，尽管可能会有更大的波动性。”

Palladium has surged as tighter emissions rules spurred demand, while supply hasn’t yet been able to respond. Citigroup Inc. forecasts the move upward has the potential to see prices gain to $2,500 in the first half of next year. Power outages in major producer South Africa hurt mine operations this month, fueling gains.

“In most cases, the cure for high prices is high prices, but not for palladium,” Tai Wong at BMO Capital Markets said before the $2,000 level was taken out. That refers to the notion in raw materials that a rally induces fresh output, triggering the conditions that then roll back the advance.

“There doesn’t seem to be any new, ready supply at any reasonable price,” Wong said. “So it could continue to move higher from here, though perhaps with more volatility.”

在中美两国达成初步贸易协定的突破之后，本周获得了许多原材料，这为全球经济增长和汽车需求提供了前景。

周二其他贵金属涨跌互现，立即交割的黄金几乎没有变化，而白银和铂金下跌。

Many raw materials gained this week after the breakthrough between the U.S. and China to forge an initial trade agreement, bolstering prospects for global economic growth and auto demand.

Other precious metals were mixed Tuesday, with gold for immediate delivery little changed, while silver and platinum declined.

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