Copper tapped as the next big metals trade of 2020

图片由KGHM提供

由于铜与经济周期的相关性，铜，通常被称为“铜博士” 2020年铜很可能成为贸易的主角，大多数行业分析师预计，随着全球金属需求的复苏，铜将“值”。

由于对美联储降息的预期以及中美之间的地缘政治紧张局势，金矿商在2019年表现出色。但是，因为贸易威胁而对全球需求减弱的担忧，使贱金属矿商进入了新的一年。

Copper, often called “Dr. Copper” due to its correlation with the economic cycle, could be the trade of 2020, as most industry analysts expect a “lift-off” for the metal as global demand recovers.

Gold miners had a blockbuster year in 2019 owing to expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts and as geopolitical tension mounted between the U.S.-China. But concern about dampened global demand as a result of trade threats left base metal miners limping into the new year.

杰富瑞（Jefferies）分析师克里斯托弗·拉菲米纳（Christopher LaFemina）表示，由于需求增加，明年这种情况可能会逆转，使铜“准备提价”。他在给客户的一份报告中写道，低的铜库存，高的空头头寸，供应限制和更好的需求为铜的上涨创造了条件。

高盛的杰弗里·柯里（Jeffrey Currie）乐观地加入了拉菲米纳（LaFemina），他认为由于中国的强劲增长，铜在2020年“将出现拐点”。摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley），美国银行（Bank of America）和花旗（Citi）也对铜和全球经济改善抱有积极的期望。

But that might reverse next year thanks to improved demand, making copper “poised for liftoff,” according to Jefferies analyst Christopher LaFemina. Low copper inventories, high short positions, supply constraints and better demand are creating conditions for the metal to rally, he wrote in a note to clients.

Joining LaFemina in his optimism is Goldman Sach’s Jeffrey Currie, who thinks copper is “set to inflect” in 2020 due to strong growth out of China. Morgan Stanley, Bank of America and Citi also have positive expectations for copper and an improving global economy.

历史表明，贱金属矿工通常在贵金属跑赢大盘之后追赶黄金股票。S＆P / TSX等重量全球贱金属指数（TXBE）在2016年的表现不及S＆P / TSX等重量全球黄金指数（TXGE），但在2017年底之前赶超了。如果分析师对2020年铜的前景是正确的，同样的趋势可能很快就会到来。

分析师对2020年金属和采矿业的预期发表了以下看法：

History shows that base metal miners have often caught up with gold equities after precious metals outperformed. The S&P/TSX Equal Weight Global Base Metals Index (TXBE) underperformed the S&P/TSX Equal Weight Global Gold Index (TXGE) in 2016, but caught up by the end of 2017. If analysts are right about the outlook for copper in 2020, the same trend may be coming soon.

Here is what the analysts are saying about what to expect for metals and mining in 2020:

杰佛瑞斯

LaFemina写道，该公司最看好2020年的铜矿商，因为目前的供应量将无法满足“甚至适度的周期性需求复苏”。预计Freeport-McMoRan Inc.，First Quantum Minerals Ltd.和Glencore PLC将受益于铜价的回升。自由港和第一量子是他的首选。还预计英美资源集团，淡水河谷和力拓等精选铁矿石矿商的表现将优于大市，因为价格有望保持高位，近期内将达到每吨100美元以上的峰值。该公司对黄金“最少看涨”。

高盛

根据大宗商品团队的说法，“铜是我们最看涨的观点，” 2020年。中国的铜需求受到“电网，房地产和运输行业表现不佳”的特别限制，并且这种情况可能会在2020年之前发生变化。“我们预计未来两年的完工量将强劲增长，房地产行业将继续保持积极态势自8月以来”，由于政府基础设施的刺激，电网投资很可能在2020年第一季度强劲增长。同时，“黄金的战略依据”仍然很强。

Jefferies

The firm is most bullish on copper miners for 2020 as current supplies won’t be able to meet “even a modest cyclical recovery in demand,” LaFemina wrote. Expects Freeport-McMoRan Inc., First Quantum Minerals Ltd. and Glencore PLC to benefit most from the copper price recovery. Freeport and First Quantum are his top picks. Also expects select iron ore miners such as Anglo American PLC, Vale SA and Rio Tinto PLC to outperform as prices are expected to remain high, peaking at more than $100 per ton in the near-term. The firm is “least bullish” on gold.

Goldman Sachs

“Copper is our most bullish view,” for 2020, according to the commodity team. Copper demand in China has been particularly restrained by “poor performance in the grid, property and transportation sectors” and that’s likely to change heading into 2020. “We expect strong completion growth in the next two years, continuing a positive trend in the property sector since August,” and grid investment is likely to pick up strongly in the first quarter of 2020 thanks to the government infrastructure stimulus. Meanwhile, the “strategic case for gold” is still strong.

花旗银行

到2020年，大多数人看好氧化铝，铜和炼焦煤，而看跌锌和铁矿石。认为大宗商品将受益于全球温和增长，其中大部分改善来自新兴市场。大宗商品团队在中期也看好黄金。该银行的股票分析师上调了泰克资源有限公司（Teck Resources Ltd.）的评级，以便更好地购买炼焦煤的前景和估值。

摩根士丹利

该银行的大宗商品团队预计，由于到年底的“小周期复苏”，需求将在2020年温和增长。仍对北美采矿业具有建设性，尤其有利于铜暴露。认为Freeport-McMoRan和Teck Resources是获得看涨铜景气的最佳方法。大宗商品团队对铝和氧化铝的前景看空，但股票分析师仍认为美铝公司在2020年仍有上涨空间。该团队还预计，由于除中国以外的需求将使市场收紧，满足的煤价将上涨。银行最主要的商品选择是钴和铜，而最不推荐的是铁矿石，锂和锌。

美国银行

预计周期性原材料将在2020年受益于潜在的库存补充周期，美联储的宽松政策以及临时的中国贸易协议，从而提供有吸引力的通胀对冲。认为铜和镍可能在2020年反弹，而黄金和贵金属的前景则更为谨慎。

Citi

Most bullish on alumina, copper and coking coal in 2020, while bearish on zinc and iron ore. Thinks commodities will benefit from modestly higher global growth, with much of the improvement coming from emerging markets. The commodities team is also bullish on gold in the medium-term. The bank’s equity analyst upgraded Teck Resources Ltd. to buy on better a coking coal outlook and valuation.

Morgan Stanley

The bank’s commodities team expects a moderate rise in demand in 2020, driven by a “mini-cycle recovery” through year-end. Remains constructive on the North American mining sector and particularly favors copper exposure. Sees Freeport-McMoRan and Teck Resources as the best way to gain exposure to bullish copper sentiment. Commodities team is bearish on the aluminum and alumina outlook, but the equity analysts still see some upside in 2020 for Alcoa Corp. The team also expects higher met coal prices as ex-China demand should tighten the market. Bank’s top commodity picks are cobalt and copper, while the least preferred are iron ore, lithium and zinc.

Bank of America

Sees cyclical raw materials benefiting in 2020 from a potential inventory restocking cycle, easier Fed policy and an interim China trade deal, providing an attractive inflation hedge. Thinks that copper and nickel are likely to rally in 2020, while the outlook for gold and precious metals is more cautious.

猜你喜欢：

1、重磅！中国工程院2019年院士增选结果！

2、整理丨自然资源相关法律法规汇总没理由不收藏

3、突发丨西非加拿大矿业公司车队惨遭袭击 37死60多伤

4、定了！山东鑫海张云龙董事长要在中国国际矿业高峰论坛演讲啦

5、和田玉沦为行贿“硬通货”，中央重拳出击！

6、东南亚鲜为人知的重要海峡！

7、国家资源图解

8、《从金属期货走势看未来矿业投资方向》且看地质大学肖荣阁教授如何解读

9、阳光创译主办的2019（第七届）中国国际矿业发展高峰论坛圆满闭幕

10、中国地质大学（北京）肖荣阁教授连续七届莅临由阳光创译主办的中国国际矿业发展高峰论坛！

11、中国有色金属海外投资项目地图，未来哪些矿产利润最大？