硅料价格短期趋稳，光伏产业链价格何时能“上抬”？

中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会最新发布的数据显示，过去一周内，多晶硅市场中n型产品的价格保持稳定，而p型产品价格则略有下调。具体而言，n型棒状硅的成交价格区间维持在3.90万元/吨至4.20万元/吨之间，成交均价为4万元/吨，与前一周相比保持不变；单晶致密料的成交价格区间则为3.30万元/吨至3.60万元/吨，成交均价为3.43万元/吨，较前一周下降了0.87%；n型颗粒硅的成交价格区间为3.60万元/吨至3.70万元/吨，成交均价为3.65万元/吨，同样保持稳定。

According to the latest data released by the Silicon Industry Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, in the past week, the prices of n-type products in the polysilicon market remained stable, while the prices of p-type products experienced a slight decrease. Specifically, the transaction price range for n-type rod silicon was maintained between 39,000 yuan/ton and 42,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 40,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The transaction price range for monocrystalline dense material was between 33,000 yuan/ton and 36,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 34,300 yuan/ton, showing a decrease of 0.87% compared to the previous week. The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon was between 36,000 yuan/ton and 37,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 36,500 yuan/ton, also remaining stable.

硅业分会指出，近期下游需求端并未出现大幅调整，原料采购方式仍以按需采购为主，因此硅料价格有望在短期内维持稳定。目前，硅料价格已经脱离了成本定价的逻辑，企业普遍处于亏损状态。为了最大化减少亏损，企业在保持现金流的前提下采取了各种措施。特别是在云南、四川地区正式进入丰水期后，电价有所下调，这在一定程度上减轻了企业的生产压力。面对困境，大多数企业选择进行暂时的停产检修，还有一些企业则致力于打造差异化产品，而少数资金实力雄厚的企业则选择满开降本。

The Silicon Industry Branch pointed out that there has been no significant adjustment in the downstream demand recently, and the raw material procurement method is still mainly based on on-demand purchasing. Therefore, silicon material prices are expected to remain stable in the short term. Currently, silicon material prices have deviated from the logic of cost-based pricing, and enterprises are generally in a state of loss. To minimize losses, enterprises have adopted various measures while maintaining cash flow. Especially after Yunnan and Sichuan officially entered the wet season, electricity prices have been reduced, which has alleviated the production pressure on enterprises to some extent. Facing difficulties, most enterprises have chosen to temporarily suspend production for maintenance, while some others are committed to creating differentiated products. A few enterprises with strong financial resources have chosen to operate at full capacity to reduce costs.

硅业分会进一步认为，短期内下游需求仍将维持低位，硅料库存增速放缓，因此预计短期内硅料价格上涨的动力不足，价格仍以持稳为主。

国金证券新能源与电力设备首席分析师姚遥表示，从2024年3月末开始，硅料价格经历了快速下跌。按照当前价格测算，主产业链已基本进入负毛利状态，仅光伏组件（外购电池片及TOPCon一体化）环节仍保留有一定毛利。姚遥综合考虑当前硅料产能、下半年预期新投产规模以及2025年预期需求后认为，预计年内硅料价格反弹空间较为有限，硅料供需再平衡必须伴随可观在产产能的退出。

据硅业分会最新数据预测，7月份多晶硅供应量将继续下调至约15万吨。而在光伏电池和组件环节，行业咨询机构InfoLink Consulting的最新报告显示，随着光伏电池厂商在月末持续出清库存，库存水平目前暂居平稳。InfoLink Consulting认为，七月份光伏组件环节的排产与终端需求动态是企业关注的重点。据粗略统计，国内七月份的组件排产量预计将达到40 GW至45 GW之间的水平。然而，自去年四季度开始，硅片、电池片环节的毛利率快速下跌，部分企业毛利已转负。考虑到费用率及存货减值的影响，大部分硅片、电池片企业已由盈转亏。姚遥测算显示，在当前价格下，大部分硅片、电池片企业均处于现金流亏损状态。在可观的产能规模出清或“破坏性”的技术变革发生之前，硅片、电池片环节的盈利改善空间预计非常有限。

另据第一财经记者了解，隆基绿能董事长钟宝申本周在接受机构调研时表示，行业发展受到政策和贸易环境不确定性等因素的影响。如果排除这些不确定性，仅从当前行业现状来看，现在的价格就是底部。钟宝申个人认为，短期内整个行业没有能力支撑价格进一步下跌。至于价格何时能反弹，以目前的竞争态势来看，可能再过三个月左右，价格会稳定或者稍微上抬。他认为，未来一段时间价格会回到现金成本和制造成本之间。随着产能继续出清，价格最终会回到制造成本水平。

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