7月7日，国家外汇管理局更新了官方储备资产数据。数据显示，截至今年6月，中国的官方黄金储备维持在7280万盎司，与5月底的储备量保持一致。这意味着，我国央行已经连续两个月没有购入新的黄金。
On July 7th, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange updated the official reserve asset data. The data showed that as of June this year, China's official gold reserves remained at 72.8 million ounces, consistent with the reserves at the end of May. This indicates that China's central bank has not purchased any new gold for two consecutive months.
自2022年11月启动本轮上涨趋势以来，国际黄金价格不断攀升并屡创新高。7月16日，现货黄金价格一度突破2440美元/盎司，达到了自5月20日以来的最高水平。在第二季度的大部分时间内，国际金价都稳定保持在2300美元/盎司之上，并且已经实现了连续三个季度的上涨。
Since the start of the current uptrend in November 2022, the international gold price has been continuously climbing and repeatedly hitting new highs. On July 16th, the spot gold price briefly surpassed $2440 per ounce, reaching its highest level since May 20th. For most of the second quarter, the international gold price has remained stable above $2300 per ounce, and has seen three consecutive quarters of increases.
黄金价格屡创新高，而我国央行黄金储备却连续两个月保持不变，这一现象引发了广泛关注。为何黄金在今年上半年表现出如此强劲的势头？这一波黄金热潮又能持续多久呢？
Gold prices have reached record highs, yet China's central bank's gold reserves have remained unchanged for two consecutive months, a phenomenon that has sparked widespread concern. Why has gold shown such strong momentum in the first half of this year? And how long will this gold rush continue?
作为避险资产，黄金在经济高风险时期展现出了更强的投资价值。今年以来，黄金价格的飙升主要得益于市场避险需求的激增。全球地缘政治局势的动荡，如乌克兰和中东地区的冲突不断升级，使得投资者纷纷转向更为安全的黄金投资。同时，全球经济增长的放缓以及通胀压力的上升也进一步增加了投资者的避险需求。
As a hedge asset, gold has demonstrated stronger investment value during periods of high economic risk. The surge in gold prices this year has been largely driven by a surge in market demand for hedging. The turmoil in global geopolitical situations, such as the escalating conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, has prompted investors to shift towards safer gold investments. At the same time, the slowdown in global economic growth and rising inflationary pressures have further increased investors' demand for hedging.
此外，黄金作为国际信用货币的背书，其价格与以美元为核心的世界信用货币体系的稳定性以及美元币值紧密相关。近期，美联储主席鲍威尔在美国国会听证会上表示，美联储下一步可能采取降息举措。随后公布的美国6月通胀数据也显示，CPI和核心CPI的同比涨幅均低于前值和预期，加剧了市场对于美联储降息的预期。目前，市场普遍预测美联储将在9月进行首次降息，并有可能在今年内实施多次降息操作，这一预期将进一步提振黄金价格。
Furthermore, as the backing of international credit currencies, the price of gold is closely related to the stability of the US dollar-centric world credit currency system and the value of the US dollar. Recently, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated at a US Congress hearing that the Federal Reserve may take interest-rate cut measures in the next step. Subsequently released US inflation data for June also showed that both CPI and core CPI rose less than previously and expected on a year-on-year basis, intensifying market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut. Currently, the market generally predicts that the Federal Reserve will make its first interest-rate cut in September and may implement multiple interest-rate cuts within this year, which is expected to further boost gold prices.
除了市场避险需求和美元币值的影响外，各国央行的购金需求同样对黄金价格走势产生重要影响。根据世界黄金协会的数据，今年5月全球央行净买入黄金10吨，其中新兴市场央行是购买的主力军。预计未来一段时间内，全球范围内的“囤金热潮”仍将持续。根据《2024年央行黄金储备调查》，在接受调查的70家全球央行中，超过八成的受访央行表示，全球央行的黄金持有量将在未来十二个月内继续增加。
Apart from market hedging demand and the influence of the US dollar value, the gold purchase demand of various central banks also has a significant impact on gold price trends. According to data from the World Gold Council, global central banks net purchased 10 tons of gold in May, with emerging market central banks being the main buyers. It is expected that the "gold rush" will continue globally for some time. According to the "2024 Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey," among the 70 global central banks surveyed, more than 80% of the responding central banks indicated that global central banks' gold holdings would continue to increase in the next twelve months.
值得注意的是，以中国为代表的部分亚洲央行成为了支撑金价走高的重要力量。上半年，尽管作为全球最大的黄金现货市场，伦敦市场的黄金投资者明显减少，资金呈现流出态势，按常理国际金价应该下跌。然而，国内黄金投资市场却一直保持资金流入，这使得国际金价居高不下。可以说，中国投资者在上半年为黄金的强势地位提供了有力支撑。
从长远来看，黄金价格的走势将受到多种因素的影响。专家认为，本轮我国央行暂停增持黄金的背后，是当前黄金价格处于历史高位。央行适当调整增持节奏，有助于更好地控制成本。
作为一种特殊资产，黄金具有金融和商品的多重属性，它有助于调节和优化国际储备组合的整体风险收益特性。而截至6月底，我国的黄金总储备量为7280万盎司，这与我国的经济体量和外汇储备总量并不匹配。实际上，我国的黄金储备占全球总储备量的比例还低于部分新兴市场国家和西方国家。因此，可以预见，后期我国央行增持黄金仍旧是大方向。
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