On October 17, the West Africa Chinese Voice reported that today we present an article written by Umar Abdulsalam about Nigeria’s lithium mining industry, translated and organized by the West Africa Chinese Voice. The content represents the author’s personal views and does not reflect the platform’s stance.
5年前，尼日利亚传来重磅消息：在克罗斯河、卡杜纳等10个州，发现了总价值超$7000亿的锂矿资源。
Five years ago, Nigeria received significant news: lithium mineral resources worth over $700 billion were discovered in 10 states, including Cross River and Kaduna.
要知道，锂是新能源时代的 “白色黄金”—— 电动车电池、储能设备都离不开它。这本该是尼日利亚跳出贫困、拥抱绿色经济的机会，但历史却敲了警钟：上世纪 70 年代起，尼日利亚靠石油赚了超 $6000 亿，如今却仍是全球贫困大国。
It is important to note that lithium is known as the “white gold” of the new energy era—essential for electric vehicle batteries and energy storage devices. This should have been Nigeria’s opportunity to break free from poverty and embrace a green economy. However, history serves as a warning: since the 1970s, Nigeria has earned over $600 billion from oil, yet it remains one of the poorest countries in the world today.
这份 “锂矿红利”，会重蹈石油的覆辙吗？
Will this “lithium dividend” repeat the mistakes of oil?
一、先看锂矿有多 “香”：品质碾压全球，需求还在暴增
First, let’s take a look at how “attractive” lithium is: its quality outperforms that of the global market, and the demand continues to surge.
尼日利亚的锂矿，天生带着 “王牌基因”：
Nigeria’s lithium mines inherently possess “trump card genes”:
品质顶尖：勘探样本的氧化锂含量达 3.5%-13%，远超全球 1%-2% 的平均水平，商业价值直接拉满；
Top-notch quality: The lithium oxide content in exploration samples ranges from 3.5% to 13%, far exceeding the global average level of 1% to 2%, which significantly enhances its commercial value.
需求爆炸：2024 年全球 70% 的锂都用来造电池，随着电动车替代燃油车，到 2029 年需求将从 2022 年的 0.71 万吨锂碳酸当量（LCE），暴涨到 1.72 万吨，年增速 22%；
Explosive Demand: 70% of the world's lithium was used for battery production in 2024. With the replacement of fuel-powered vehicles by electric vehicles, the demand will surge from 0.71 million tons of Lithium Carbonate Equivalent (LCE) in 2022 to 1.72 million tons by 2029, with an annual growth rate of 22%.
中国已下场：作为全球电动车制造大国（掌控 60% 锂加工产能），中国已向尼日利亚承诺 $13 亿投资，在阿布贾附近、卡杜纳 - 尼日尔边境建了锂加工厂，未来还会扩建。
China has entered the game: As the world's largest electric vehicle manufacturing country (controlling 60% of the lithium processing capacity), China has promised Nigeria an investment of $1.3 billion to build lithium processing plants near Abuja and at the Kaduna-Niger border, and there will be expansions in the future.
二、千亿投资背后：能赚多少钱？又有多少隐患？
Behind the 100-billion-yuan investment, there are both potential gains and hidden risks. Taking NVIDIA’s investment in OpenAI as an example:
按目前规划，这些锂项目的 “钱景” 很可观：
According to the current plan, the "prospects" of these lithium projects are very promising:
两座主力加工厂，全周期收益预计超$250亿，每年能为尼日利亚带来$8 亿外汇；
The two main processing plants are expected to generate over $2.5 billion in total lifecycle revenue and bring $800 million in foreign exchange to Nigeria annually.
到 2035 年，锂矿出口收入可能达 $50-80 亿，还能创造 5 万个以上正式岗位；
By 2035, lithium ore export revenues are expected to reach $5 billion to $8 billion, and over 50,000 formal jobs will also be created.
如果能延伸产业链（不只卖原料，还做电池组件），尼日利亚甚至能成为全球绿色 tech 关键玩家。
If it can extend its industrial chain (not just selling raw materials, but also manufacturing battery components), Nigeria could even become a key player in the global green technology sector.
但风险也在暗处滋生 ——石油时代的 “诅咒” 正在重现：
But risks are also brewing in the shadows — the "curse" of the oil era is reemerging:
锂矿储量至今没算清：2019 年就发现了矿，但尼日利亚地质调查局还在靠测绘估算总量，数据不透明；
The total lithium reserves remain unaccounted for: The mines were discovered as early as 2019, but Nigeria's Geological Survey Agency is still relying on mapping to estimate the total amount, with opaque data;
治理漏洞显现：和当年石油一样，锂矿的开采许可流程里，已经出现 “精英垄断”“规则模糊” 的苗头；
Governance loopholes are emerging: Similar to the oil era, signs of "elite monopoly" and "vague rules" have already appeared in the lithium mining licensing process;
警惕 “只卖原料”：如果还是像石油那样，只出口未经加工的锂矿石，大部分利润会被外国企业赚走，本国只能赚 “辛苦钱”。
Caution against "only selling raw materials": If Nigeria continues to export unprocessed lithium ore like it did with oil, most of the profits will be earned by foreign enterprises, leaving the country with only "hard-earned petty gains".
三、破局关键：从 “卖资源” 到 “造价值”，尼日利亚在学智利、博茨瓦纳
好在尼日利亚已经意识到问题，开始抄 “优等生作业”：
Fortunately, Nigeria has recognized the problem and started to "copy the homework of top performers":
建国企控方向：成立尼日利亚矿业公司（NMC），用 “国企 + 私企” 的合资模式开发，避免私人资本乱挖；
Establishing state-owned enterprises to control the direction: The Nigerian Mining Corporation (NMC) has been set up, adopting a joint venture model of "state-owned enterprises + private enterprises" for development to prevent unregulated mining by private capital;
禁卖 “未加工矿”：计划收紧甚至禁止原矿出口，要求在国内完成加工 —— 这样既能留住技术、创造高收入岗位，还能减少偷挖偷卖的漏洞；
Banning the sale of "unprocessed minerals": Plans are underway to tighten or even ban the export of raw ore, requiring processing to be completed domestically — this will not only retain technology and create high-income jobs but also reduce loopholes for illegal mining and smuggling;
拉外援补短板：联合非洲金融公司（AFC）、固体矿产发展基金（MDF），引入中国资金的同时，也争取技术转移。
Seeking foreign assistance to make up for weaknesses: Collaborating with the African Finance Corporation (AFC) and the Mineral Development Fund (MDF), it is introducing Chinese capital while striving for technology transfer.
如果这些措施能落地，锂矿可能不只是 “赚钱工具”：当地能建可再生能源设施、完善基建，甚至带动整个工业升级。
If these measures can be implemented, lithium mines may be more than just a "money-making tool": local renewable energy facilities can be built, infrastructure improved, and even the entire industrial sector upgraded.
结语：是 “红利” 还是 “诅咒”，关键在 “怎么分”
Conclusion: Whether it is a "bonus" or a "curse" depends on "how to distribute"
尼日利亚的故事，其实是很多资源国的缩影：有好矿不代表能富，关键看 “钱怎么赚、怎么花”。石油时代的教训已经很清楚 —— 如果利润只流进精英口袋，再多的财富也填不满贫困的坑。
Nigeria's story is actually a microcosm of many resource-rich countries: having high-quality minerals does not mean prosperity; the key lies in "how to make money and how to spend it". The lessons of the oil era are clear — if profits only flow into the pockets of elites, no amount of wealth can fill the pit of poverty.
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