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Trump Makes China Great in Latin America
Trump’s approach to trade and foreign policy will only make more room for China in the Western hemisphere.
特朗普的贸易政策与外交政策只会让中国在西半球有更大的影响力。
“China Wins if NAFTA Dies”
02
“若北美自由贸易协定终结，将是中国的胜利”
As Trump mulls renegotiating or withdrawing from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), China has positioned itself to gain in the aftermath. Consider that NAFTA strongly reinforces Mexico’s structural ties with the United States by offering zero tariffs and providing legal guarantees. As a result, Mexico has become a top export market for the United States, buying over 15 percent of everything made in America and then sold abroad. The value of U.S. exports to Mexico topped $230 billion in 2016. The 23-year-old agreement has helped Mexico not only boost trade but also transform its economy, moving from a commodity-driven economy to an advanced manufacturing exporter.
当特朗普考虑重新谈判，试图退出北美自由贸易协定时，中国便“坐享其成”。北美自由贸易协定通过免除关税、提供法律保障等手段强有力地巩固了美国和墨西哥之间的组织关系，使墨西哥成为美国的最大出口市场之一。该国购买了超过15%的美国产品，并进一步销往海外。2016年，美国对墨西哥的出口额超过了2300亿。这份签订了二十三年的协议，不仅促进了贸易增长，还推动了产业转型。墨西哥由一个大宗商品驱动型经济体一步步向先进的制造业出口国转变。
But the potential demise of NAFTA would put all of that into jeopardy and give China an opportunity to capitalize on the economic foundations it has already built in Mexico. For example, China’s state-owned JAC Motors invested $2.2 billion in a joint venture to produce SUVs with Carlos Slim’s Giant Motors, making China a major player in the Mexican car industry.
但北美自由贸易区或将终结的潜在危险将这一切成果推入险境，同时也给了中国一个利用墨西哥已建立的经济基础的机会。例如，中国国企江淮汽车向卡洛斯·斯利姆旗下的Giant Motors公司投资22亿，与该公司合资生产SUV。这一举措让中国成为了墨西哥汽车市场的主要参与者。
Any significant expansion of Beijing’s corporate presence and political and military relationship with Mexico would likely trigger further anxiety from the United States and force a reassessment of the strategic and commercial threat that China poses to U.S. interests in Latin America. Little wonder, then, that Shannon O’Nell, the senior fellow for Latin American Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, declared that “China wins if NAFTA dies.”
北京方面做出的任何在墨西哥加强经济合作、扩大政治影响和彰显军事存在的举措都很可能引发美国更大的焦虑，迫使美国重新评估中国在拉美地区对其利益构成的威胁。所以，美国外交关系协会拉美研究高级研究员香农·奥内尔宣称“若北美自由贸易协定终结，将是中国的胜利”也就不足为奇了。
Kicking the Can Down in Mercosur
03
在南美共同市场实施缓兵之计
When it comes to South America, the Trump administration appears set to continue previous American administrations’ inability to make a purposeful decision to engage more deeply with the region. Economically, the Trump administration seems willing to antagonize South American countries in the name of protectionism and scoring domestic political points. The stated reason is that “every decision on trade, on taxes, on immigration, on foreign affairs, will be made to benefit American workers and American families.”
当提到南美洲时，特朗普政府看起来和前任政府一样无能。他们并没能做出一个有效决策来加强与该地区的联系。经济方面，特朗普政府很愿意以贸易保护主义和赢得国内支持的名义与南美国家对抗。原因是“制定一切贸易、税收、移民、外交政策的出发点应当是使美国工人和美国家庭的利益最大化。”
By contrast, Chinese companies are busy embarking on new projects in South America. Shandong Gold, a state-backed Chinese company, recently agreed to pay almost $1 billion for half of Barrick Gold’s Veladero mine in Argentina. The Veladero mine is expected to produce as much as 830,000 ounces of gold this year, making this a major victory for China’s economy.
相比之下，中国的公司忙于在南美开展新项目。有国家财力支持的山东黄金集团近期同意向巴里克黄金公司位于阿根廷的贝拉德罗金矿投资近十亿美元。贝拉德罗金矿今年有望生产83万盎司的黄金。这将成为中国经济的一大胜利。
Even politically, the United States seems to flirt with avoiding leadership. The Trump administration informed the Washington, D.C.-based Inter-American Human Rights Commission that it would not participate in three hearings on March 21 about Trump’s executive orders on immigration, as part of a review of human rights cases in countries across the hemisphere. The highly unusual step of boycotting several sessions was a bad mistake that will weaken U.S. efforts to condemn Cuba, Ecuador, and other systematic human rights abusers.
即使是在政治方面，美国也在轻率地回避着领导权。特朗普政府对位于华盛顿的美洲人权委员会表示，他们不会参加3月21日举行的听证会。该听证会的主题是特朗普在移民方面的行政命令，是各国人权案件审查的一部分。这种极为不寻常的拒绝参加会议的举动是一个严重失误，它将影响到美国在谴责古巴、厄瓜多尔等侵犯人权的国家时所做的努力。
（未完待续）
资料来源：http://thediplomat.com/2017/04/trump-makes-china-great-in-latin-america/
—翻译：张宇晗 —
—推送：张宇晗 —
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