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INSIGHTS BRUSSELS——Where do we go from Brexit?

INSIGHTS BRUSSELS——Where do we go from Brexit? 明思力
2016-09-05
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导读:Brexit and beyond The legislative pipeline for financial services, energy and digital


Few material changes have taken place in Brussels or Lon­don since 52% of Brits voted to leave the European Union on 23 June. But behind the scenes, perceptions are shifting and a world of uncertainty lies ahead of us. It has become clear that the political leadership that raised the Brexit question did not plan for the eventuality of the vote to leave the EU. The complacency of David Cameron’s government is all the more surprising given that, in the informed judgement of the Eu­ropean Union Committee of the House of Lords, “withdrawal from the EU is arguably the most complex, demanding and important administrative and diplomatic task that the Gov­ernment has undertaken since the Second World War”. The select committee is now quite rightly pushing for Parliament to have the right to scrutinise the withdrawal negotiations and the future of the relationship between the UK and the EU.




The policy area for which Brexit presents the greatest chal­lenges is Financial Services, where London’s €106tn volume of business in trading and clearing euros only takes place due to the City being in the EU. This will be one of the most controversial elements of the negotiations between the EU and the UK. The City is unlikely to safeguard its current status without the UK making concessions in other areas of interest for the EU such as the maintenance of the freedom of movement and establishment for EU citizens.
The Capital Markets Union (CMU) Action Plan, presented last year by the European Commission, outlines 33 new measures deemed necessary to establish the building blocks for an integrated capital market across the European Union by 2019. The first progress report on CMU released earlier this year does not take account of the new situation emerging following the UK referendum and will require re-assessment by the Commission.





In the coming months, the European Commission will pres­ent several major legislative proposals for the energy sector, in order to give life to its five-pillar energy strategy present­ed in 2015: realize an integrated internal energy market, reduce Europe’s climate impact, improve energy efficiency, strengthen security of supply and support innovation. To fulfil these goals, the EU institutions will work on revising the Emission Trading System, as well as the existing energy efficiency and renewable energy directives. The EU legisla­tors will also focus on a new set of measures for Europe’s se­curity of supply, focusing on intergovernmental agreements for gas companies and on a heating and cooling strategy, as well as on liquefied natural gas. Key future policy develop­ments are outlined below.
The uncertainty thrown up by Brexit is reflected in the fact that private investors will likely hold back on large energy projects until they have assurances about the environment they will be operating in. By way of example, the UK has already seen a 20% decline in value of infrastructure con­tracts for July compared with the previous month. Leaving the single market could also open the UK to new import taxes, adding cost to equipment such as foundations for offshore wind farms or parts for nuclear plants. There are some silver linings for the UK energy sector though. Brex­it would eliminate the EU’s trade duties on Chinese solar equipment imports, making cheap panels more accessible to UK users. The UK unshackling itself from Brussels might also mean companies and investors are granted more free­dom to access local public subsidies, or pursue energy pro­jects such as for shale gas which are currently submitted to EU environmental assessment. Meanwhile, in the legisla­tive landscape, the Commission’s climate policy - the blue­print for sharing out the 40% by 2030 greenhouse gas target among the 28 member states – is now likely to be postponed, along with inter-institutional negotiations on the emissions trading system.




In the second half of 2016, the European institutions will enter the final stretch; releasing, adopting or making signifi­cant progress in the negotiations over the remaining legisla­tive proposals completing the Digital Single Market. While some major proposals, such as the Regulation on geoblock­ing or the cross-border portability of online content, are about to enter the decisive phase of trilogue negotiations, the European Commission will also present its long-await­ed proposal on copyright reform in September, adapting intellectual property rules to the ever-evolving online en­vironment. European stakeholders are expected to actively contribute to the debate given the many financial, legal and cultural interests at stake.



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