Automotive CIS market survey - supply constraints to subside in 2H22 or 2023
* Demand – we expect global automotive CMOS image sensor (CIS) sales to grow 49% YoY to US$1.8bn in 2022. This could be driven mainly by 1) increasing adoption of 1.3 mega-pixel (MP) and 8MP for L2/L3 autonomous driving in advanced driver-assistance system (ADAS) and 2) the uptake of the surround-view function. We expect global automotive CIS sales to grow to US$7.2bn in 2030 at a 2021-30 CAGR of 22%.
* Supply – we expect automotive CIS foundry capacity shortage to continue in 1H22. However, capacity shortage may start to ease in 2H22 or 2023 and supply/demand balance could occur in 2023. We attribute this to 1) On Semi’s (ON US) new internal capacity ramp-up in US and Samsung’s potential M&A strategy (please see more detailed analysis in the report); 2) foundries’ capacity expansion and capacity shift from smartphone/surveillance CIS to automotive CIS; 3) supply chain adjustment for forecast accuracy to avoid continuous CIS ASP hikes. These could imply downside risks to the Street expectations of On Semi’s limited capacity increase in 2023/24.
* ASP – our industry surveys suggest that automotive CIS ASP could rise 15-20% QoQ in 1Q22, driven by continuous shortage in 1H22. However, we expect pricing competition to start in 2023 due to our expectation of automotive CIS supply/demand balance.
* Competitive landscape – we believe Will Semi (603501.SH) could gain market share from On Semi in 2022 while On Semi may regain market share in 2023 based on its internal capacity ramp-up. Notably, the SOC trend (CIS with an integrated image signal processor – ISP) could be challenging to standalone automotive ISP outlook. This could be challenging to chip vendors such as Allwinner (300458.SZ), Fullhan (300613.SZ), and iCatch Technology (6695 TT) which provide standalone automotive ISP.
The investment implications of Semicon Taiwan 2021
• What is new - Semicon hold an exhibit with 600+ semiconductor equipment manufacturers on 2021/12/28-2021/12/30. We conclude our findings and investment themes. We are positive on BESI (BESI.AS), Naura (002371.SZ), TEL (8035.TYO), and TSMC (2330 TT). We expect more structural re-rating for these names in the long term.
• Foundry technology migration beyond 3nm to continue – our study indicates that 2nm mass shipment could start in 1H25 post initial 3nm mass shipment in 1H23. The migration to below 2nm node should continue in 2027/28. TSMC could enhance its dominance in 3/2nm with 90%+ market share in 2023/26. This could be higher than its market share in 16/12nm and 7nm for the corresponding periods thanks to enhanced technology leadership.
• The SoIC trend to emerge from late 2022
1. our surveys suggest that high-performance computing (HPC) customers could adopt TSMC’s system on integrated chips (SoIC) packaging solutions from late 2022. This could be attributable to better performance, form factor, and lower power of SoIC vs. current 2.5D/3D (dimensional) packaging solutions. We believe this could benefit BESI (BESI.AS) which could be the only hybrid bonding equipment provider for SoIC in 2022/25 due to its technology strength.
2. The SoIC uptake could be challenging for outsourced semiconductor assembly and testing (OSAT) vendors. In our view, ASE (3711 TT), Amkor (AMKR US), JCET (600584.SH), and TFME (002156.SZ) may see limited growth upside in the long run. We attribute this to their weakness in technology and the business model for SoIC packaging solutions.
• Long order lead time – our checks suggest order lead time of 10-18 months for semiconductor front-end equipment manufacturers, which could continue into 2H22. This could stem from shortage of raw materials and ICs in 2022. This may lead to slower-than-expected capacity increase and help reduce oversupply risks for foundries in 2H22/23. Notably, we foresee 5-10% upside to TSMC’s 2022/23 capex due to strong 5nm/3nm demand outlook. In addition, we expect TEL to gain market share in 2nm silicon etching for 2024/25.
• Chinese semiconductor equipment manufacturers market share expansion in 2022 – we expect Naura to expand its share in the front-end semiconductor equipment market based on its turnkey solutions. However, we are conservative about Hanbell’s (002158.SZ) long-term growth outlook for its vacuum business due to high entry barriers in the hard vacuum market for semiconductor process equipment.
郑重声明：以上内容是作者基于公开信息所做的判断，仅代表个人或嘉宾观点，与本网站、任何公司与任何机构立场无关。股市波动与很多因素有关，投资决策是个人基于自己的研究分析所做的决定，本文目的在于事实、观点分享，不构成任何投资建议。本文未经本营和作者书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式转发、转载、翻版、复制、刊登、发表、修改、仿制或引用文章的全部或部分内容。本营对任何第三方的未经授权行为所产生的影响不承担任何责任，同时保持实施法律行动的权利。
更多详细信息，请联系：michaelchou@acecamptech.com
