Summary
* What is new - the company released above-consensus 4Q21 result and 1Q22 guidance
* Market share gains in 2022/25 - the company’s aggressive capacity expansion plan and the localization trend could enable the company to gain more market from other tier-two foundries in 2022/25. We believe this could have negative implications to tier-two foundries especially UMC given a lack of advanced nodes and potential market share loss in mature nodes in the long term.
* Oversupply risks in 2023/24 - we remain concerned over potential oversupply risks in mature 12-inch nodes (90/65nm/40/28nm) in 2023/24 given foundries’ aggressive capacity growth and the supply/demand balance of automotive PMIC (power management IC) in mid-2023. TI could increase total capacity by 20-30% mainly for high-voltage automotive and industrial products by end-2023. In addition, foundries could expand high-voltage capacity by 10-20% YoY in 2022/23. Once the supply/demand oversupply of automotive PMICs were to occur in 2H23, this may lead foundries to face oversupply risks for its mature 12-inch nodes. Tier-two foundries lack strong know-how in mid/high-end automotive/industrial products and high-performance computing (HPC) products. This implies tier-two foundries may encounter oversupply and margin pressure from 2H23 onwards.
* Further upside subject to advanced node progress - the stock trades at 9.8x/8.9x 2022/23E PE. The market may remain conservative on the stock given the concerns over 1) oversupply risks of mature nodes in 2023/24 and 2) a lack of EUV (extreme ultraviolet) equipment, which is key for cost reduction and performance improvement for 7nm and beyond.
郑重声明：以上内容是作者基于公开信息所做的判断，仅代表个人或嘉宾观点，与本网站、任何公司与任何机构立场无关。股市波动与很多因素有关，投资决策是个人基于自己的研究分析所做的决定，本文目的在于事实、观点分享，不构成任何投资建议。本文未经本营和作者书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式转发、转载、翻版、复制、刊登、发表、修改、仿制或引用文章的全部或部分内容。本营对任何第三方的未经授权行为所产生的影响不承担任何责任，同时保持实施法律行动的权利。
更多详细信息，请联系：michaelchou@acecamptech.com
