文章要点
* Unfavorable trends ahead - we now expect global smartphone units to fall 3% YoY to 1.31bn units in 2022 vs. our previous and consensus estimates of 0-2% YoY unit growth given weaker-than-expected demand, inventory adjustment, and rising macro risks. Notably, we expect global Android 4G/5G smartphone units to drop 5-7% YoY in 2022/26 (please see table 1 for details). We attribute this to Apple’s continuous market expansion in 2022/26 based on its more aggressive strategies for the mid-end smartphone market and continuous leadership in its PPA (performance, power, and area) for its iPhone CPU (see figure 1/2 for details). This should lead Android smartphone chip vendors (MediaTek and Qualcomm) to see more unit/ASP/margin downside risks in 2022/26. For instance, our latest industry surveys suggest that MediaTek appeared to lower its 5G smartphone chip ASP by 5-10% recently and its 2022 5G shipment target by 10% (180m units vs. 200m units previously), followed by Qualcomm. We now expect MediaTek to ship 5G smartphone chips of 160-170m units (consensus estimates of 190-210m units; 18% below consensus estimates) and more smartphone chip ASP reduction in 2022 given weak sell-through of its key customers (Xiaomi, Oppo, and Vivo).
* Structural challenges to intensify - we expect Android smartphone chip vendors to see more ASP/margin contraction in 2022/2026 given smartphone manufacturers’ increasing adoption of their internal chip solutions and intensified competition with eased foundry supply tightness in 2H22/2026. For instance, Oppo (MediaTek/Qualcomm's key smartphone chip customer) could adopt its internal image NPU (neutral processing unit) and MediaTek/Qualcomm’s mid-end 5G smartphone chips rather than MediaTek/Qualcomm's high-end 5G smartphone chips for the its 5G smartphones in 2H22 and beyond. These types of solutions can have similar performance as MediaTek/Qualcomm’s high-end 5G smartphone chips have and help reduce cost by 10-20% for Oppo. This could imply lower semiconductor dollar content opportunities for MediaTek/Qualcomm in 2H22/2026. In addition, Qualcomm should have more wafer support for 6nm/4nm mid/high-end 5G smartphone chips (TSMC) and PMIC (mainly tier-two foundries) in 2Q22/2026. In our view, intensified competition could lead Android smartphone chip vendors to face trade-off between market share and margins amid a declining Android smartphone market in 2022/26.
* Upcoming de-rating catalysts - we lower our 2022/23/24 EPS forecasts by 2% to NT$79.35/80.94/74.46 (+13%/+2%/-8% EPS YoY for 2022/23/24; 10-20% below consensus estimates). The stock traded at 12.2x/12.0x/13.0x our 2022/23/24E PE. We expect the stock to drop to low NT$500 (7x 2024E PE) by end-2023, implying 40%+ downside risks in 18 months. This could be driven by -6% EPS CAGR and lacks of strong growth drivers in 2022/26 (please see our note, “MediaTek - structural de-rating risks ahead", dated on 2022/03/14). Catalysts could include 1) 7-9 ppts downside risks to the company’s 2022 guidance and consensus estimates of 20%+ YoY sales growth and 2) margin contraction from 2Q22 or 3Q22 into 2026. We expect its GM to drop from 48.5% in 2022 to 46.3%/43.0%/42.0%/41.0% in 2023/24/25/26.
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