Container freight has fallen by over 60%, will it keep falling?- 大数跨境

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Container freight has fallen by over 60%, will it keep falling?

HACOS瀚客企服

2022-09-09

导读：集装箱运费年内大跌逾六成，仍将继续下跌？

今年的货运人都能明显感觉到，传统海运中的“旺季”其实不怎么旺，热度跟以前也没法比，集装箱运费一路下跌。

In this year's peak season, the shipping market has not felt the prosperity of the past two years, and the freight of container has been declining.

根据波罗的海航运交易所发布的FBX指数显示，从中国到美国西海岸的40英尺集装箱运费目前约为每箱4800美元，较1月份已下跌了逾60%。从中国到北欧的集装箱运费也降至了9100美元，比今年年初低了约40%。

Freight for a 40-foot container from China to the U.S. west coast are now around $4,800, down more than 60% from January, according to the Freightos Baltic Index (FBX). Container freight from China to Northern Europe also fell to $9,100, about 40% lower than at the start of the year.

image@Freightos Baltic Index

这两条主要航线的运费虽然仍高于疫情前的水平，但与去年9月触及的逾2万美元峰值相比，已不可同日而语。

Freights on these two main routes, while still higher than pre-pandemic levels, are far from a peak of more than $20,000 in September last year.

2021年，由于供应链中断、港口积压和货物激增令进口商们争相在集装箱船上抢夺空间，集装箱运费大幅上涨了约十倍。沃尔玛等一些大型零售商甚至开始租用自己的船只，以避免遭遇运输瓶颈。

Container freight have surged about tenfold in 2021 as supply chain disruptions, backlogs at ports and a surge in cargo send importers scrambling to grab space on container ships. Some big retailers, such as Walmart, even began chartering their own ships to avoid bottlenecks.

然而，今年沃尔玛和其他零售商所预计的发货延迟以及旺盛需求并未能实现，前期大量的进口商品很多仍未被市场消化，结果导致了库存过多，制造商们也比往年提前发货。一些服装销售商以及玩具制造商称，他们的春季库存水平激增，而往年这通常要到临近假期时才会发生。

However, the delays in delivery and strong demand expected by Walmart and other retailers this year have not appeared. Many of the large quantities of imported goods before were unable to see a good sale, resulting in excessive inventory and manufacturers shipping earlier than in previous years. Some apparel sellers and toy makers said their stock had surged in the spring, which in previous years usually didn't happen until the holidays were approaching.

能源与船舶咨询公司Braemar的集装箱航运分析师Jonathan Roach表示，对于现货市场而言，盛宴已经结束了。在能源价格大涨和通胀加速攀升推动下，潜在的全球经济衰退的背景正在拖累航运市场下跌。

For the spot market, the feast is over, said Jonathan Roach, container shipping analyst at energy and shipping consultancy Braemar. The backdrop of a potential global recession is dragging the shipping market down, driven by soaring energy prices and accelerating inflation.

在今年剩余时间和明年，航运费率很可能将进一步下跌。

Shipping rates are likely to fall further for the rest of the year and next year.

不过，航运业高管和分析师也指出，运费不会恢复到疫情前的水平，部分原因是燃料成本上升。

But, executives and analysts shipping also pointed out that freight will not return to pre-pandemic levels, in part because of higher fuel costs.

Source: 航运在线

瀚客货代专注国际货运代理一站式服务，为外贸公司/外贸工厂提供一站式进出口物流服务。

HACOS International Freight Forwarding Agent Company focuses on providing one-stop import and export logistics services for foreign trade companies/foreign trade factories.