Container shipping market still sees huge uncertainties in 2023- 大数跨境

首页

Container shipping market still sees huge uncertainties in 2023

HACOS瀚客企服

2023-01-03

导读：运价终于止跌！2023年集装箱航运市场仍然不明朗

连跌27周后，集运运价终于在2022年最后一周终于停止下跌。

After 27 consecutive weeks of decline, the freight rate finally stopped falling in the last week of 2022.

根据上海航交所12月30日发布的最新数据，上周上海出口集装箱运价指数（SCFI）上涨0.46点至1107.55点，周涨幅0.04%，其中主力航线远东到欧洲及远东到美西运价均有所上涨。12月SCFI指数月跌幅收敛到9.95%。

According to the latest data released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange on December 30, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) rose 0.46 points to 1107.55 points last week, a weekly increase of 0.04%, including the freight rates of the main routes from the Far East to Europe and from the Far East to the US and West Asia. In December, the monthly decline of SCFI index has narrowed to 9.95%.

上周，远东到欧洲线每TEU运价上涨29美元至1078美元，涨幅2.76%。远东到地中海线每TEU运价下跌46美元至1850美元，跌幅2.43%。远东到美西线每FEU运价上涨5美元至1423美元，涨幅0.35%。远东到美东线每FEU运价周跌29美元至3067美元，跌幅0.94%。

Last week, the freight rate for each TEU from the Far East to Europe increased by $29 to $1078, or 2.76%. From the Far East to the Mediterranean, the freight rate per TEU fell by 46 dollars to 1850 dollars, or 2.43%. The freight rate per FEU of the Far East West Line increased by 5 dollars to 1423 dollars, or 0.35%. The freight rate per FEU of the Far East to the East America Line fell by $29 to $3067, or 0.94%.

南美线(桑托斯)每TEU运价1433美元，周跌137元，下跌8.73%。东南亚线(新加坡)每TEU运价188美元，周跌1美元，跌幅0.53%。日本关西、关东线每TEU运价持平之前一周。韩国线每TEU运价上涨13美元至238美元。

The freight rate of South America Line (Santos) per TEU was 1433 dollars, down 137 yuan or 8.73% in the week. The freight rate of Southeast Asia Line (Singapore) per TEU was US $188, down US $1 or 0.53% in the week. The rate of each TEU on the Kansai and Kanto lines in Japan was flat with the previous week. The freight rate of South Korea Line per TEU rose by $13 to $238.

据了解，SCFI指数在2018-2019年间大致在800-1100点波动，2020年起受到疫情影响，缺工、塞港造成全球供应链混乱，SCFI指数一路上扬，在2022年一季度曾达到历史高点的5109点。然而，2022年下半年以来运价长达6个月走跌，显示疫情红利时代结束。

It is said that the SCFI index fluctuated roughly between 800-1100 points in 2018-2019. Since 2020, as lack of labor and port congestion have caused chaos in the global supply chain, the SCFI index has been on the rise, reaching a historical high of 5109 points in the first quarter of 2022. However, since the second half of 2022, freight rates have fallen for six months, telling the end of dividend era brought by the epidemic.

与2022年年初的历史高点相比，SCFI指数今年累计已经下跌了78%以上，美西线、欧洲线跌幅更超过了82%、86%。

Compared with the historical peak at the beginning of 2022, the SCFI index has dropped by more than 78% this year, and the decline of the US West Line and the European Line has exceeded 82% and 86%.

业界人士指出，虽然运价已经开始出现止稳迹象，但不排除属于跌多拉回。许多集运公司为假期与年后淡季打算，已开始抢货甩箱，不排除2023年1月下旬运价再起波澜，届时需要观察集运公司是提升控舱力度稳定运价，还是杀价抢货。

Industry insiders pointed out that although the freight rate has begun to show signs of stabilization, it cannot be ignored that there is still possibility of falling again. Many shipping companies have started to fight for orders and reduce containers for holidays and the off-season after the New Year. Therefore, it is likely to see rising prices in late January 2023. It depends on whether the shipping companies reduce containers to enable a stable price or reduce prices to get more orders.

展望未来，由于市场不确定性因素仍高，2023年上半年市场不明朗，多家集运公司预估第一季度可能较清淡，随着美国库存消耗、通胀与能源价格缓解，加上预期主要国家经济政策调整，第二季度需求量可能慢慢变好，期待第三季价量可以回升。

Looking into the future, due to many variable factors, the market still sees uncertainties in the first half of 2023. Many container companies estimate that the first quarter may be a dull season. With the easing of inventory consumption, inflation and energy prices in the United States, and the expected adjustment of economic policies of major countries, the demand in the second quarter may slowly improve, and the price in the third quarter is expected to rise.

其次，2023年全球供需运力会受到IMO环保新规的影响，全球经济目前预估维持正增长，尽管新船供给量交付增长8.2%，但年初两大碳排放新规生效后预估可能会吸收掉10%的舱位，因此实际供给的增加可能没有预期那么严重。

What’s more, in 2023, the global supply and demand capacity will be affected by the new IMO environmental protection regulations. Currently, the global economy is estimated to maintain a positive growth. Although the supply of new ships will increase by 8.2%, it is estimated that 10% of the spaces will reduce after the two new carbon emission regulations come into effect at the beginning of the year, so the increase in actual supply may not be as much as expected.

Source: 国际船舶网, 上海航运交易所‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍

瀚客货代专注国际货运代理一站式服务，为外贸公司/外贸工厂提供一站式进出口物流服务。

HACOS International Freight Forwarding Agent Company focuses on providing one-stop import and export logistics services for foreign trade companies/foreign trade factories.