Renminbi on rebound as recovery sets! RMB/USD breached 6.8!

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2023-01-10

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导读：汇率下跌！人民币又升值啦！2023年如何走向？

人民币又升值啦！

周一（1月9日），在岸、离岸人民币兑美元汇率双双收复6.8关口。

On Monday (January 9), the onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar both breached 6.8 psychological level.

截至午间12时，在岸人民币兑美元汇率报6.7915，当天已升幅673点，年内涨幅达2.3%；离岸人民币兑美元汇率报6.7960，当天升幅328点，年初至今涨幅达1.81%。

As of 12:00 noon, the onshore RMB/USD was at 6.7915, which had risen by 673 points on the same day and 2.3% in the year; The offshore RMB/USD rose 328 points at 6.7960, up 1.81% year-to-date.

据中国外汇交易中心数据显示，1月9日人民币兑美元中间价报6.8265，较上一交易日上调647点。

According to the data of China Foreign Exchange Trading Center, the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar was 6.8265 on January 9, up 647 points from the previous trading day.

自今年以来，人民币已连续五个交易日升值。这也是自2022年8月以来，美元/人民币首次跌破6.8。自2022年11月以来，人民币累计升值6%。

The Chinese yuan has thus reported gains for five consecutive trading days since this year began. It is also the first time for USD/CNY to drop below 6.8 since August 2022. The renminbi has gained 6 percent in all since November 2022.

货币市场专家表示，在其他经济体面临下行压力以及中国经济复苏的双重影响下，人民币的看涨势头变得更加明显。

Supported by China's economic recovery amid downward pressure on other economies, the renminbi's bullish momentum has become more noticeable, currency market experts said on Monday.

业内人士也表示，中国经济复苏速度快于预期，是支撑人民币近期反弹的因素之一。

Industry insiders also said that China's faster-than-expected economic recovery is among the factors that have been propping up the renminbi's recent rebound.

虽然美国、欧洲等世界主要经济体正面临衰退的可能，但中国经济的快速复苏有利于海外投资者通过沪股通的方式将资金注入A股，这种北上资金的流入也将有助于人民币改善其在货币市场的表现。

While the world's major economies, including the United States and Europe, are approaching a possible recession, China's quick economic recovery is conducive to the inflow of northbound capital, or the amount that overseas investors pump into A shares via the stock connect program linking Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong bourses. Such capital inflows will also help the renminbi to improve its performance in the currency market, he said.

周一，北上资金净流入77亿元人民币，基准上证综指连续第六个交易日上涨至3176.08点，较周五收盘上涨0.58%。今年迄今，北上资金流入已超过270亿元。

The northbound capital reported a net inflow of 7.7 billion yuan ($1.1 billion) on Monday, when the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index rose for the sixth consecutive trading day to 3176.08 points, up 0.58 percent from Friday's close. Northbound capital inflow has exceeded 27 billion yuan so far this year.

另外，季节性因素也推动了人民币升值。出口商通常在农历春节之前进行周期性收汇与结汇，这也会在短期内推高人民币汇率。

The seasonal factor has also helped lift the renminbi's value. Exporters usually make cyclical exchange settlement before Chinese Lunar New Year, which starts on Jan 22 this year. Such collective settlement usually drives up the renminbi's exchange rate in the short term.

由Kamakshya Trivedi领衔的高盛货币策略师团队在1月6日的一份报告中写道，预计到今年年底人民币对美元将升至6.5，而此前的预估为6.9。

Goldman Sachs analysts led by Kamakshya Trivedi wrote in a report on Jan 6 that USD/CNY is likely to touch 6.5 by the end of this year, driven by market optimism that China may further optimize its COVID-19 control policies. The previous estimate was 6.9.

人民银行党委书记郭树清表示，去年底以来，人民币汇率大幅反弹，境外资本流入持续增长，充分反映了国际金融市场坚定看好我国经济发展，对物价等经济基本面充满信心。中长期看，人民币汇率会保持双向波动，但总体上将持续走强。

In an interview with the Xinhua News Agency on Saturday, Guo Shuqing, Party secretary of the People's Bank of China, the country's central bank, said the renminbi has rebounded strongly since the end of last year amid continued foreign capital inflows. This reflects the global investors' positive outlook on China's economic growth and their confidence in the country's economic fundamentals such as prices. In the mid to long run, the renminbi exchange rate will see two-way fluctuations. But the overall trend is upward, he said.

国家外汇管理局周六发布的数据显示，截至12月底，中国外汇储备超过3.12万亿美元，比一个月前增加102亿美元，连续第三个月上涨。

Data released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Saturday showed that China's foreign exchange reserves exceeded $3.12 trillion by the end of December, up $10.2 billion from a month earlier. This was a rise for the third month in a row.

中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬认为，2023年中国经济基本面持续修复和温和通胀，整体上将有利于人民币汇率保持稳定。综合经济基本面与国际收支面考虑，预计2023年人民币汇率整体将呈现双向波动、温和回升、逐步趋近长期合理区间的走势。

Wen Bin, chief economist with China Minsheng Bank, said that as China's economic growth further stabilizes, RMB assets will gather greater appeal and the country's balance of payments will remain stable. All these will translate into a stable scale of foreign exchange this year.

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