2018美国总统中期选举：名人真的对选民有影响吗？

Whenever an election comes around, there are always celebrities who throw their support behind their favoured candidates and hope their fans will follow their lead at the ballot box.

每到美国总统选举时期，总会有名人公开表明支持某个候选人，并希望粉丝也能跟着他们投票。

In Tuesday's US mid-term elections, however, many of the high-profile stars who had publicly supported candidates were left disappointed. So how much is a celebrity endorsement actually worth?

然而在周二的美国中期选举中，许多明星公开支持一些候选人，努力却落了空。名人背书的影响力究竟有多大？

Beyoncé’s last-minute backing for Democratic Senate hopeful Beto O'Rourke, who also had the support of Travis Scott and Lin-Manuel Miranda, among others, couldn't help him upset Republican rival Ted Cruz in Texas.

民主党参议院候选人Beto O’Rourke备受期待，他的支持者包括Travis Scott和Lin-Manuel Miranda，并在最后关头获得了Beyoncé的支持。即便如此，在德克萨斯州，他依然未能击败共和党的对手Ted Cruz。

In Florida, Rihanna's endorsement wasn't enough to make Democrat Andrew Gillum the state's first black governor.

在佛罗里达州，Rihanna的支持也没能让民主党的Andrew Gillum成为该州首任黑人州长。

Oprah Winfrey, Diddy and Will Ferrell were among the stars to stand up for another Democrat, Stacey Abrams, in her bid to become governor of Georgia. At the time of writing, Abrams was trailing Republican Brian Kemp as the last votes were being counted.

同为民主党人的Stacey Abrams在竞选佐治亚州州长时，得到了Oprah Winfrey, Diddy和 Will Ferrell等众星的公开支持。但在统计最后一轮选票时，Abrams却落后于共和党的Brian Kemp。

Taylor Swift made perhaps the most high-profile celebrity intervention in the campaign when she broke her silence about politics and shared a photograph of herself and her mother waving American flags next to a billboard for Democratic Senate candidate Phil Bredesen.

Taylor Swift做出了一众名人中最高调的涉政举动。 Taylor Swift一反不谈政治的常态，分享了一张自己和母亲的照片。照片中，她们在民主党参议院候选人Phil Bredesen的公告牌旁挥舞着美国国旗。

He lost, and Republican commentators have taken great delight in the fact.

结果他输掉了选举，共和党的评论员对此乐不可支。

Swift had mixed fortunes, though - Jim Cooper, who she supported for the House of Representatives, did win.

Swift的运势算是好坏参半。她所支持的众议院候选人Jim Cooper就赢得了选举。

The history of celebrity endorsements goes back to the birth of modern celebrity. Warren Harding won the 1920 US presidential campaign with the backing of a raft of film stars of the day.

名人效应的历史可以追溯到现代名人诞生之时。在当时许多电影明星的支持下，Warren Harding赢得了1920年的美国总统竞选。

In 1960, John F Kennedy had the support of Rat Pack members Sammy Davis Junior and Dean Martin.

1960年，约翰··肯尼迪获得了鼠帮乐队成员Sammy Davis Junior和Dean Martin的支持。

More recently, research conducted by the University of Maryland credits Oprah with bringing Barack Obama more than a million votes in the 2008 Democratic Presidential Primary process.

近日，马里兰大学的一项调查表明，Oprah在2008年民主党总统初选中为巴拉克·奥巴马赢得了超过100万票。

However, after the 2004 presidential election, a study found that friends and family were more influential than celebrities on young voters.

然而在2004年总统选举后，一项研究发现朋友和家庭对于年轻选民的影响胜过名人。

"Celebrities may have looked pretty, but they were not particularly influential on first-time voters," the report said.

该报告称：“名人们也许表面上光鲜亮丽，但是他们对初次投票的选民并没有很大的影响力。”

A survey in Ohio in 2016 concluded that star endorsements had no effect on most voters' intentions in that year's presidential race - and some celebrities actually put people off. An endorsement from Beyoncé was, apparently, the biggest turn-off.

2016年俄亥俄州的一项调查结果显示，名人效应在那一年的总统竞选中对大多数选民的意愿没有影响，事实上某些名人甚至令人反感。其中，Beyoncé的政治取向显然最令人生厌。

Scott Lucas, professor of American Studies at the University of Birmingham, told the BBC that there are two types of celebrity influence.

伯明翰大学从事美国研究的教授Scott Lucas告诉BBC，名人的影响分为两大类。

People are more likely to listen to the likes of Oprah and George and Amal Clooney because their campaigning work in politics, civil rights and activism gives them more credibility, he argues.

他表示，人们更易于听取Oprah和Clooney夫妇的政治倾向，因为他们在政治、民权领域所作的努力和积极的行动增加了他们的可靠性。

"I would distinguish that type of celebrity influence from let's say, listening to Robert De Niro because he flips off the president. I think you've got to have more of a constructive approach."“我会将这类名人效应区别于消极的另一类，打个比方，‘听Robert De Niro的，因为他惹毛了总统‘。我认为人们完全可以采取更积极的态度。“

Although he's recently distanced himself from politics, Kanye West is someone else who is not in the "constructive" category.

Kanye West也是不属于“积极”大类的另一个例子，即使他近期已经不再涉足政治。

The rapper has been a vocal admirer of President Trump, upsetting many of his fans and other hip-hop figures.

这位说唱歌手是特朗普的公开支持者，这使他的很多粉丝以及其他嘻哈界明星感到失望。 

"If Kanye had said something that was comprehensible and that was meaningful, then Kanye has got a contribution," Prof Lucas says.

Lucas教授说：“如果Kanye能说些让人理解的且有意义的话，他也算做出了一点贡献。”

"But when Kanye does what he does, he becomes a figure of fun and everybody on the Republican side was quite happy for him to drop out of politics, whatever that meant."

“但是他的所作所为都沦为笑柄。无论他想表达什么，所有共和党支持者都会为他不再涉足政治而感到高兴。”

John Curtice, professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, believes that while celebrities provide a way of generating coverage and possibly help get a politician's message across, they can come with disadvantages.

斯特拉思克莱德大学的政治学教授John Curtice认为，名人虽然能够扩大影响范围，或许还能帮助政客宣传他们的主张，但是他们也会带来不利的因素。

The classic example in the UK, he says, was when comedian Kenny Everett appeared alongside Margaret Thatcher at the 1983 Conservative Party Conference, where his appeals to "bomb Russia" and kick Labour leader Michael Foot's walking stick away were probably not what the prime minister had hoped for.

他说英国有一个经典的例子，喜剧演员Kenny Everett和玛格丽特·撒切尔一同出席了1983年的保守党大会。在会上，首相也许并没有料到Kenny Everett会呼吁“轰炸俄罗斯”，并踢飞工党领袖Michael Foot的拐杖。

"Celebrities are fine so long as they generating favourable publicity," Prof Curtice says. "But they can sometimes end up generating unfavourable publicity because they're not necessarily always politically nuanced."

“只要名人们能进行正面的宣传，他们的作用就是积极的，”Curtice教授说。“但是他们不总是能懂得政治的微妙，导致了最后相反的宣传效果。”

Back to the US 2018 mid-terms, and Prof Lucas says it wasn't a surprise that Taylor Swift couldn't give Phil Bredesen the necessary push to beat Republican Marsha Blackburn in traditionally Republican Tennessee.

2018美国中期选举时，Lucas教授说在一直以来就支持共和党的田纳西州，Taylor Swift没能帮助Phil Bredesen击败共和党的Marsha Blackburn并不让人意外。

"Tennessee is one of the deepest red states in the union, so it was always going to be an up tail battle to take it," he says.

他说：“田纳西州是全国最拥护共和党的州之一，这自始至终都是一场激烈的角逐。”

*red state:在2004，2008，2012，2016四届选举中，共和党全部胜出的州。 

But he adds: "If you look at the youth vote in Tennessee and if you look at the youth vote across the US, then Taylor makes a difference."

但他继续说：“如果你将田纳西州的青少年投票数与全美国的相比较，就会发现Taylor的确对他们有影响。”

In the two days after the star posted her original message on 7 October, Vote.org received 212,871 new voter registrations across the country, with the most in the 18 to 24 age group. In October 2016, there were an average of around 13,000 per day.

这位女星在10月7日发表了她自己的意见，两天后，Vote.org网站收到了全国212871个新的选民注册申请，其中大多数年龄在18-24岁之间。2016年10月，每天平均有13000个青少年注册成为选民。

According to CNN, exit polls showed that around 69% of voters aged between 18-29 chose Bredesen on Tuesday. Nationally, 67% of that age group voted Democrat.

据CNN报道，周二的出口民调结果显示，18至29岁的选民中有69%选择了Bredesen。从全国范围来看，该年龄段67%的选民投给了民主党。

In 2014, 54% of voters in that age group voted Democrat, CNN said.

根据CNN的消息，在2014年，该年龄段54%的选民投给了民主党。

That rise clearly isn't down to Taylor. There are many factors - especially the change of occupant in the White House - that mean young voters are more motivated to vote, and to vote Democrat.

这个数字的上升不能归因于Taylor Swift。这其中有很多因素，尤其是总统换届，这意味着年轻选民会更积极地参与投票，将票投给民主党。

But Prof Lucas believes the influence of figures like Swift in helping to mobilise a young electorate could be key in the next presidential race in two years' time.

然而Lucas教授相信，在两年后的下任总统竞选中，Taylor这样的名人会在动员年轻选民上施加关键的影响力。

"If I'm looking at 2020, if you get an increase in voter participation among 18-24s like we had yesterday and it keeps going, everything shifts in US politics," he says.

他说：“如果在2020年，18至24岁选民的参与度依然保持着过去的增长速度，美国政治将天翻地覆。”

"That's where Taylor becomes important because they did get a surge in voter registration, especially among young people."

“Taylor的重要性在此体现，因为注册成为选民的人数明显增多，尤其是年轻人。”