拜登的胜利对其他国家意味着什么？

  2020年的美国大选，针锋相对，备受瞩目。投票结果显示：拜登赢得了这场总统大选。在特朗普执政期间，美国与世界的关系发生了深刻的变化。就让我们一起去看看面对拜登获胜的消息时，各国有何不同反应呢？

RUSSIA

   A more predictable administration may be the "silver lining" for Russia of Mr. Biden's win.

 The Kremlin has an acute sense of hearing. So when Joe Biden recently named Russia as "the biggest threat" to America, they heard that loud and clear in Moscow.The Kremlin also has a long memory. In 2011 Vice-President Biden reportedly said that if he were Mr. Putin, he wouldn't run again for president: it would be bad for the country and for himself. President Putin won't have forgotten that.

    拜登的胜利将带来一个可以预见的政府，这可能意味着俄罗斯能看见一线希望。

克里姆林宫有着“敏锐的听觉”。所以最近当拜登把俄罗斯称为美国“最大的威胁”时，他们在莫斯科听得响亮而清晰。克里姆林宫也有着良好的“记性”。在2011年，还是副总统的拜登就被报道说到，如果他是普京，他就不会再一次竞选总统。那对这个国家和他自己都是一件坏事。普京总统不会忘记这些的。

  Mr. Biden and Mr. Putin are not a match made in geo-political heaven. Moscow fears the Biden presidency will mean more pressure and more sanctions from Washington. With a Democrat in the White House, could it be payback time for Russia's alleged intervention in the 2016 US election?One Russian newspaper recently claimed that under Mr. Trump, US-Russian relations had plunged "to the seabed". But it likened Mr. Biden to a "dredger" who was going to "dig even deeper". Little wonder Moscow has that sinking feeling.

   拜登和普京不是地缘政治天堂里的对手。莫斯科害怕拜登当选总统意味着来自华盛顿的更多压力和制裁。在民主党控制白宫的情况下，俄罗斯涉嫌干预2016年美国大选的行为是否会遭到报复？一家俄罗斯报纸声称，在特朗普的领导下，美俄关系已经暴跌“到了海底”。但它把拜登比作一个将要“挖得更深”的“挖泥船”。难怪莫斯科会有那种惴惴不安感。

But for the Kremlin there could be a silver lining. Russian commentators predict a Biden administration will, at least, be more predictable than the Trump team. That might make it easier to reach agreement on pressing issues, like New Start - the crucial US-Russian nuclear arms reduction treaty due to expire next February.Moscow will want to move on from the Trump era and try to build a working relationship with the new White House. There's no guarantee of success.

    但是克里姆林宫还有一线希望。俄罗斯评论员预测拜登政府至少会比特朗普的团队更好预测。这可能会使得双方更容易在一些紧急问题上达成协议。比如《新削减战略武器条约》（New Start）——这是至关重要的中美削减核武器条约，将于明年二月到期。莫斯科应该想要从特朗普时代摆脱，试着和新的白宫建立工作关系。但是不一定会成功。

UK

    The US and UK's "special relationship" may face a downgrade with Joe Biden at the helm.

They won't be seen as natural allies: Joe Biden, the seasoned Democrat, and Boris Johnson, the bombastic Brexiteer.In looking at how their future relationship might work, it's worth considering the past. Specifically that seminal year, 2016, when Donald Trump won the White House and the UK voted to leave the EU. Both Joe Biden and his boss at the time, Barack Obama, made no secret they preferred another outcome on Brexit.

    美国和英国的“特殊关系”在拜登掌舵的情况下可能会走下坡路。他们不会被看作是天然的盟友：拜登，老练的民主党派；鲍里斯·约翰逊，夸夸其谈的脱欧主义者。在思考他们未来的关系将会怎样发展时，回顾过去是很有价值的。特别是在有重大影响力的2016年，当唐纳德·特朗普赢得了白宫，英国投票退出欧盟。拜登和他那时候的老板巴拉克·奥巴马都毫不掩饰，他们更希望英国脱欧能有另一种结果。

The UK government's recent manoeuvres in relation to Brexit have not gone down well with key Democrats and the Irish lobby, including the US president-elect. Mr. Biden said he would not allow peace in Northern Ireland to become a "casualty of Brexit" if elected - stating that any future US-UK trade deal would be contingent upon respecting the Good Friday Agreement.

    英国政府最近对于脱欧问题的策略没有得到关键民主党人和和爱尔兰游说群体（包括美国当选总统）的欢迎。拜登说如果他当选，他不会允许北爱尔兰的和平成为“英国脱欧的牺牲品”。他表示，英美贸易协议的未来将取决于对《贝尔法斯特协议》的尊重。

* 《贝尔法斯特协议》（Good Friday Agreement）是北爱尔兰和平进程一个主要的里程碑。这份协议也是当前北爱尔兰自治政府、爱尔兰政府和英国政府达成协议的政治基础。其中包含了一系列的北爱尔兰与爱尔兰共和国以及爱尔兰共和国与英国之间的条款。

  Remember how Donald Trump once called Boris Johnson "Britain Trump"? Well, Mr. Biden seemingly agreed, once reportedly describing the UK prime minister as Mr. Trump's "physical and emotional clone". So it's possible Joe Biden may initially be more eager to talk to Brussels, Berlin or Paris than love-bomb London. The "special relationship" could, feasibly, face a downgrade.However, the two men may yet find some common ground. The two countries they lead, after all, have long-standing and deep-running diplomatic ties - not least in the areas of security and intelligence.

    还记得唐纳德·特朗普曾经如何称呼鲍里斯·约翰逊为“英国的特朗普”吗？嗯，拜登似乎同意。据报道，他曾经把英国的首相描述为特朗普的“身体和情绪的克隆体”。所以有可能拜登一开始就更渴望和布鲁塞尔、柏林或者巴黎谈话，而不是热爱炸弹的伦敦。这样的“特殊关系”，很有可能面临着下坡路。但是，这两个人可能也能找到一些共同点。毕竟，他们带领的两个国家有着长久存在的、深度的外交关系——尤其是在安全和情报方面。

CANADA 

    Justin Trudeau will see an ally in his new neighbor.The Canadian prime minister pledged to deepen ties with the US no matter who won the presidential election - but it's likely relief was felt in Ottawa when it became clear Democrat Joe Biden had clinched victory.Canada's relationship with the US has been rocky under President Trump, though not without its accomplishments. They include the successful renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement, along with Mexico.But Justin Trudeau has made clear he felt a political kinship with former President Barack Obama - who endorsed him during the recent Canadian federal election. That feeling of warmth extends to the man who served as Mr. Obama's vice-president - Joe Biden.

   贾斯廷·特鲁多将在他的新邻居中看到一个盟友。加拿大总理承诺，无论谁赢了总统大选，加拿大都会加深与美国的关系——但很有可能的是，在拜登明显获胜后，渥太华松了一口气。在特朗普总统的带领下，加拿大和美国的关系变得不太稳定，尽管还有一些成就，包括与墨西哥一起成功重新谈判北美自由贸易协定。但是贾斯廷·特鲁多明确表示，他感觉自己和前总统巴拉克·奥巴马之间有一种政治亲缘关系，并且奥巴马在最近的加拿大联邦选举中支持了他。奥巴马的副总统拜登也感受到了这种温暖。

    In Mr. Biden, Mr. Trudeau's Liberal Party will find an ally on issues like climate change and multilateralism. But that doesn't mean there aren't opportunities for friction with his administration. President Trump authorised the construction of the Alberta-to-Texas Keystone XL oil pipeline, a project seen as key to Canada's struggling energy sector - but President-elect Biden opposes the project.And Joe Biden's "Buy American" economic plan to revive US industry after the coronavirus pandemic will be a concern given Canada's deep dependence on trade with the US.

    在拜登身上，特鲁多的自由党将就气候变化和多边主义问题找到盟友。但是那并不意味着，他的两国政府间不会产生摩擦。特朗普总统授权建设阿拉伯塔到德克萨斯州的Keystone XL石油管道，这个工程被看作是加拿大苦苦挣扎的能源行业的关键——但当选总统拜登反对这个工程。考虑到加拿大在贸易上对美国的深度依赖，拜登在疫情过后的用于重振美国产业的“购买美国货”经济计划会很让人担忧。

THE KOREAS

    North Korea once described Mr. Biden as a "rabid dog" - but now Kim Jong-un will be making careful calculations before trying to provoke the new US president. It's likely Chairman Kim would have preferred another four years of Donald Trump. The leaders' unprecedented meeting and follow-ups made for incredible photo-ops for the history books but very little of substance was signed. Neither side got what they wanted out of these talks: North Korea has continued to build up its nuclear arsenal and the US has continued to enforce strict sanctions.

    朝鲜当局曾戏称拜登为"疯狗"，而现在情况却有所转变：金正恩在试图挑衅拜登之前将会反复斟酌。金正恩很可能希望特朗普赢得今年的大选。之前两国领导人史无前例的会面可以说是有着重大的历史意义，但遗憾的是，在会议上双方没有签署任何实质性的协议。双方都没有得到预想的好处，朝鲜选择继续建立核武器库，美国则继续实施严格的制裁。

    In contrast, Joe Biden has demanded North Korea show that it is willing to abandon its nuclear weapons programme before he holds any meetings with Kim Jong-un. Many analysts believe that unless Mr. Biden's team initiates talks with Pyongyang very early on, the days of "fire and fury" may return. Mr. Kim might want to get Washington's attention with a return to long-range missile tests, but he won't want to increase tensions to the point that the already impoverished state would be hit with even more sanctions.

    相比之下，拜登则要求朝鲜政府放弃核武器计划，否则他将不会和金正恩开展任何会议。但相关专家却认为，如果拜登政府不尽早与其协商，两国的关系又将火药味十足。金正恩可能企图通过恢复远程导弹试验挑衅美国。然而，他也不想加剧紧张局势，使得日益贫穷的朝鲜受到更多来自美国的制裁打压。

  South Korea has already warned the North not to go down a provocative path. Seoul may have struggled to deal with Donald Trump at times - but President Moon is keen to put an end to the 70-year war on the Korean peninsula and he praised Mr. Trump for having the "courage" to meet with Mr. Kim. The South will closely watch for any sign that Mr. Biden is willing to do the same.

    韩国已经提醒过朝鲜不要再挑衅美国了。韩国当局有时都觉得很难搞定特朗普。文在寅很希望能够结束朝鲜半岛70年的冷战，他称赞特朗普此举很有“勇气”。南韩将密切关注着拜登政治上一举一动，看他是否愿意赴朝会谈。