Part 1 总理,影子,与攫取的声音
匈牙利总理维克多·奥尔班(Viktor Orban)盖蒂图片社
由雅罗斯瓦夫·卡钦斯基在幕后控制的波兰法律与正义党则面临着更多的反对声音,因此行动更加缓慢,不过方向与匈牙利政府一致,二者怀着同样偏狭极端的热情。上个月该党的最新成果是迫使支持者众多的宪法法院大幅度缩紧了在波兰已经备受限制的堕胎权。但抗议活动的爆发使得政府不得不延缓这一决定的执行————这一抗议在目前仍然持续着。
Poland’s Law and Justice Party, run from behind the curtain by Jaroslaw Kaczynski, has faced more opposition and so has moved more slowly, but in the same direction, and with the same illiberal zeal. Its latest effort was to have the Constitutional Court, packed with followers, sharply narrow already restricted access to abortion in Poland last month. An eruption of protests — which are continuing — forced the government to delay implementing the decision.
波兰副总理雅罗斯瓦夫·卡钦斯基(Jaroslaw Kaczynski),是执政的法律与正义党的领导人。信用...Wojtek Radwanski /法新社— Getty Images
Part 2 被束缚的“核条款”
欧盟早就对欧尔班和卡钦斯基的极端倾向有所察觉,但是其决策过程中的共识机制让其对这两人及其所代表的政府无能为力。匈牙利和波兰是欧盟历史上仅有的两个依据里斯本条约第七款被欧盟委员会(欧盟执行机构)调查过的成员国。一旦发现有国家反复出现严重有违欧盟价值观的行为,该款项可以暂时剥夺被执行国的投票权。但在实际上这一条款的执行需要获得除被调查国外欧盟所有成员国的一致同意,很显然,匈牙利和波兰可以互相保护对方免受第七款的制裁
The European Union has long been cognizant of the illiberal drift of this duo, but the focus on unanimity in E.U. decision-making rendered it largely powerless to do anything about it. Hungary and Poland are the only two countries in the history of the Union to have been investigated by the executive arm of the bloc, the European Commission, under Article 7 of the Union treaty, which authorizes suspension of a member’s voting rights if it is found in “serious breach” of E.U. values. Actually doing so would require a unanimous vote by the rest of the Union, and either Hungary or Poland would block punishment of the other.
Part 3 但是钱,钱,钱
然而,拒绝向不守规则的成员国提供资金援助则不需要全体的一致同意,而欧盟在今年的预算计划中也恰恰这么做了。所以这也就是为什么匈牙利和波兰如此焦虑,并威胁要否决欧盟的预算方案,而如果欧盟总计1.8万亿欧元的预算审计受阻,那么7500亿欧元的紧急经济刺激计划将会被迫推迟,该计划本用于应对新冠肺炎疫情对欧洲大陆的二次冲击,尤其是援助那些受疫情影响最为严重的成员国,如意大利和西班牙。虽然欧盟规则中有针对意外状况的紧急支出条款,这一条款的落实也需要经过艰苦的谈判,尽管匈牙利和波兰也会在这一动议下受损,但是他们自信能够借其潜在风险恐吓其他成员国对欧盟的决定投出反对票。
Withholding funds from wayward memb-ers, by contrast, would not require unanimity. The budget, however, does, so that’s where Hungary and Poland made their stand. If the 1.8 trillion-euro ($2.1 trillion) budget is blocked, E.U. rules allow for some emergency spending, but the sorely needed, and painfully negotiated, €750 billion emergency stimulus package would be delayed, dealing a serious blow to a continent in the grips of a major second wave of the coronavirus, and especially Spain and Italy, the hardest hit E.U. members. Though Hungary and Poland would also lose, they are betting that they can outbluff the rest.
Part 4 喧嚣的沉默

