“懂王”究竟是怎么落败的？

2020 年美国大选彻底埋葬了这样一种错误观念。——“16 年大选只是美国人的反常行为酿成的一场历史意外。”

特朗普赢得了 7000 多万张选票，这是美国历史上第二高的总票数。在全国范围内，他获得了 47%以上的选票，有望赢得 24 个州的支持，其中包括他深爱的佛罗里达州和德克萨斯州。

他在这个国家的大片地区有着非凡的影响力。成千上万的人发自肺腑地支持着他，怀着近乎信慕邪教一般的忠诚。

He has an extraordinary hold over large swathes of this country, a visceral connection that among thousands of supporters has brought a near cult-like devotion. 

2020年的任何对他政治弱点的分析都必须承认他的政治实力。然而，他被击败了，成为当代第四位没能谋得连任的总统。他也成为第一位在连续两次选举中输掉普选的总统。

Any analysis of his political weakness in 2020 also has to acknowledge his political strength. However, he was defeated, becoming one of only four incumbents in the modern era not to get another four years. Also he has become the first president to lose the popular vote in consecutive elections.

特朗普能在 2016 年赢得总统大选，某种程度上是因为他是一个打破常规的政治局外人，随时准备说出之前默认不能说出口的政治规则。但也正是这个原因在一定程度上导致特朗普 2020 年总统大选最终失利。

Donald Trump won the presidency in 2016 partly because he was a norm-busting political outsider who was prepared to say what had previously been unsayable.But Donald Trump also lost the presidency in 2020 partly because he was a norm-busting political outsider who was prepared to say what had previously been unsayable.

我们在 2020 年总统大选中再次看到了 2018 年中期选举中看到的情况——更多哪怕是四年前把票投给特朗普，准备给他一次机会的高知共和党人，也认为特朗普在任内实在太不像个总统了。尽管他们知道特朗普会打破传统，但很多人还是觉得他蔑视传统规范的方式令人反感。

他们被特朗普的攻击性吓退了。他煽动种族主义，在推特上诽谤有色人种。他未能充分谴责白人至上主义。他诋毁美国的传统盟友，崇拜普京等独裁的铁腕人物。他古怪地自夸为是“一个非常稳定的天才”。他宣扬阴谋论。他的通用语有时让他听起来更像一个犯罪头目，比如他曾将自己的前律师迈克尔·科恩形容为“耗子（叛徒）”。

They were put off by his aggressiveness. His stoking of racial tensions. His use of racist language in tweets maligning people of colour. His failure, on occasions, to adequately condemn white supremacy. His trashing of America's traditional allies and his admiration for authoritarian strongmen, such as Vladimir Putin.His strange boasts about being "a very stable genius" and the like. His promotion of conspiracy theories. His use of a lingua franca that sometimes made him sound more like a crime boss, such as when he described his former lawyer Michael Cohen，as "a rat".

竞选期间，我在匹兹堡经历了一个有意义的时刻。当时，我在查克·豪恩斯坦那栋连栋住宅的门廊上与他聊天。2016 时他支持特朗普，但今年他将票投给了拜登。

“人们都累了，”他告诉我。“他们希望看到这个国家恢复正常，回归体面。他们希望仇恨停止，国家团结。这些憧憬将使乔·拜登成为总统。”

"People are tired," he told me. "They want to see normalcy back in this country. They want to see decency. They want to see this hatred stop. They want to see this country united. And that together is going to bring Joe Biden the presidency."

特朗普面临的一个政治问题是，他未能将自己的支持基础扩大到核心基础之外。他也没有努力去做这件事。2016 年，他赢得了 30 个州的选票。在治理国家的时候，他似乎只属于保守的“红色美国”。作为过去百年里故意造成最多分歧的总统，他几乎没有试图拉拢“蓝色美国"，即投票给希拉里•克林顿的20个州。

A political problem for Trump was that he failed to expand his support beyond his core Trump base. Nor did he try hard to do so. In 2016, he won 30 states and often governed as if he was the president solely of conservative, red America. The most deliberately divisive president of the past 100 years, he made little attempt to woo blue America, the 20 states that voted for Hillary Clinton.

乔·拜登很难被妖魔化，这也是民主党建制派如此热衷于让他作为总统候选人的部分原因。这位 77 岁的中间派人士还不辱使命，把“铁锈地带”的白人工人阶级选民拉了回来。

Joe Biden was hard to demonise, which is partly why the Democratic establishment was so keen to have him as its presidential nominee. This 77-year-old centrist also did the job he was hired to do, which was to claw back white working class voters in the Rust Belt.

关于特朗普为什么会输掉总统大选的问题也转向了一个更有趣、更有争议的问题——他是什么时候输掉总统大选的?

是在 2016 年特朗普获胜的不久后吗?当时，部分为反对华盛顿建制派而投票给特朗普的人立刻产生了疑虑。毕竟，这些选民中有许多人从未指望他会赢。

是在他总统任期的24小时内，当他发表他的"美国大屠杀"就职演说——把美国描绘成一个几乎要倒闭的工厂、留下的工人和财富是从中产阶级家中"夺取"的反乌托邦时吗？还是之后，他因为人群规模大倒苦水，并发誓要继续使用推特时？显然，在他上任第一天的日落时分，唐纳德·特朗普在寻求改变总统职位，而不是让总统职位改变自己。

Was it in the first 24 hours of his presidency, when he delivered his "American Carnage" inaugural address - which portrayed the country as a near dystopia of shuttered factories, left-behind workers and wealth "ripped" from middle class homes - before he ranted about the crowd size and vowed to continue using Twitter? By sundown of his first full day in charge, it had become clear that Donald Trump would seek to change the presidency more than the presidency changed him.

是在 2016 年特朗普获胜的不久后吗?当时，部分为反对华盛顿建制派而投票给特朗普的人立刻产生了疑虑。毕竟，这些选民中有许多人从未指望他会赢。

是在他总统任期的24小时内，当他发表他的"美国大屠杀"就职演说——把美国描绘成一个几乎要倒闭的工厂、留下的工人和财富是从中产阶级家中"夺取"的反乌托邦时吗？还是之后，他因为人群规模大倒苦水，并发誓要继续使用推特时？显然，在他上任第一天的日落时分，唐纳德·特朗普在寻求改变总统职位，而不是让总统职位改变自己。

Was it in the first 24 hours of his presidency, when he delivered his "American Carnage" inaugural address - which portrayed the country as a near dystopia of shuttered factories, left-behind workers and wealth "ripped" from middle class homes - before he ranted about the crowd size and vowed to continue using Twitter? By sundown of his first full day in charge, it had become clear that Donald Trump would seek to change the presidency more than the presidency changed him.

是如此多的丑闻、如此多的诽谤、如此多的人员流失和如此多的混乱逐渐积累造成的滚雪球效应吗?

Was it more cumulative, the snowball effect of so many scandals, so many slurs, so much staff turn-over, and so much chaos?

抑或是席卷他总统任期的最大危机——新冠病毒的结果?在病毒抵达美国之前，特朗普连任的政治信号很强。他挺过了弹劾审判。他的支持率达到了最高水平——49%。他可以自夸强韧的经济和现任总统的优势:这两个因素通常确保现任总统连任。总统选举往往取决于一个简单的问题:美国现在的情况是否比四年前更好?在新冠病毒问世以及随之而来的经济危机之后，这一点几乎无法获得支持。

Or was it as a result of the coronavirus, the biggest crisis that engulfed his presidency? Before the virus arrived on these shores, Trump's political vital signs were strong. He had survived his impeachment trial. His approval ratings matched the highest level it had been - 49%. He could boast a strong economy and the advantage of incumbency: the twin factors that usually secure a sitting president a second term. Often presidential elections turn on a simple question: is the country better off now than it was four years ago? After Covid hit, and the economic crisis that followed, it became almost impossible to make that case.

但说特朗普的总统任期必然会被冠状病毒所毁灭，这是错误的。总统往往能从国家动荡中脱颖而出，变得更加强大。危机往往能造就伟大。罗斯福就是如此，他将美国从大萧条中拯救出来，使自己在政治上无懈可击。布什对9•11袭击的最初反应也提高了他的人气，帮助他赢得了第二任期。所以新冠终结特朗普的任期绝不是注定的。是他对危机的拙劣处理导致了他的下台。

But it is wrong to say that the Trump presidency was inevitably doomed by the coronavirus. Presidents often emerge from national convulsions stronger. Crises can often bring out greatness. That was true for Franklin Delano Roosevelt, whose rescuing of America from the Great Depression made him politically unassailable. George W Bush's initial response to the attacks of September 11th also boosted his popularity, and helped him win a second term. So it was by no means preordained that Covid would finish Donald Trump. It was his botched handling of the crisis that contributed to his fall.

然而，值得再次记住的是，尽管美国经历了 100 多年来最严重的公共健康危机、自 1930 年代以来最大的经济危机，以及自 19世纪60年代末以来最严重的种族动荡，但特朗普直到最后都保持着政治活力。

即将离任的特朗普仍将是一个评价两极分化严重的人物，2024 年他可能再次参选。分裂的美国并没有突然重新团结起来，尤其是因为很多美国人对特朗普怀有从忠诚到鄙夷、仇恨的不同态度。

The outgoing president will remain a deeply polarizing figure, and could run again in 2024. These disunited states have not suddenly become united again, not least because so many Americans will harbour such different emotions about Trump, ranging from devotion to abject hate.

这个国家肯定还没有见证完历史上最后一位最不正统的总统。

The country surely has not heard or seen the last of the most unorthodox president in its history.