疫情抬高了火鸡价格吗？

对很多人来说，2020年是个不平凡的一年。似乎所有事物都不可避免地受到疫情的冲击。感恩节也不例外——今年的火鸡价格相较往年明显高了不少。

一、火鸡供应是否充足？

    Wholesale turkey prices are going up, as the actual number of turkeys available to be consumed goes down, according to Texas A & M Today. According to AgriLife Extension economist David Anderson, turkey production has fallen by 7.7% in October 2020 compared to where it was at the same time last year. Overall turkey production for 2020 has fallen by 2.7% compared to where it was in 2019. The culprit, he says, is the fact that there are fewer turkeys being produced.

    据《今日德克萨斯A & M》报道，随着火鸡实际供给数量的下降，火鸡批发价格在不断上涨。经济学家大卫·安德森(David Anderson)表示，相较于去年，今年十月份的火鸡产量下降了7.7%，而今年的总产量下降了2.7%。他认为，火鸡产量的减少是导致其涨价的重要因素。

  John Zimmerman, owner of P and J Products in Northfield, Minnesota, reinforced that impression in an interview with Vox last week, commenting on how the pandemic has taken a toll on turkey farmers.

明尼苏达州诺斯菲尔德市P&J农产品公司的老板约翰·齐默尔曼上周在接受维克斯采访时着重讲述了疫情对火鸡饲养者的影响。

"It started quickly in March and April, because at our processing plant we started to have employees test positive for Covid," Zimmerman told Vox. "A lot of those employees live in large family groups, so one employee would be positive, and you'd have to quarantine 15 or 20 people. We saw a definite decrease in the workforce at the plant, and that affected the farm because we're working at half speed so we can't get the birds out on time."

    齐默尔曼告诉维克斯，“疫情在三四月份爆发。在加工厂里，我们开始对员工进行核酸检测。很多员工生活在大家庭中，所以只要有一个员工的检测结果呈阳性，就必须要隔离15-20个人。劳动力急剧减少，严重影响了生产效率。现在我们的产能减半，没法按时提供足量的火鸡。”

    A spokesperson for the National Turkey Federation offered a different view .

"There had been illnesses in some turkey plants, but the industry largely has been able to contain them quickly, implement additional safety procedures and minimize plant downtime. So they do not anticipate any supply challenges for Thanksgiving.”The spokesperson said.

    而在全国火鸡联合会上，一位发言人提出了不同的看法。

“一些工厂内出现了新冠感染患者，但是行业内部人员基本上能够迅速控制住局面，并采取更多的安全措施，以最大限度地减少停工时间。他们预计，感恩节的火鸡可以正常供应。”

The spokesperson did note that wholesale turkey prices were higher than in 2019.Turkeys are not the only food product that has become more expensive due to the pandemic. Food prices have been rising throughout the world during the pandemic due to factors ranging from supply chain disruptions to hoarding tendencies among people fearful of food scarcity.

    这位发言人指出，火鸡的批发价格高于2019年。但是由于疫情，很多食品的价格都有所提高，而火鸡只是其中一种。在疫情期间，世界各地的粮食价格一直在上涨。原因是多方面的。例如：食品供应链中断；有些人害怕粮食短缺，囤积粮食等。

二、今年感恩节，小火鸡会“大火

This lowered production is naturally causing an increase in prices. What's more, Americans are being advised to hold smaller Thanksgiving gatherings as a precaution against COVID-19, which makes smaller turkeys more desirable and more likely to be purchased early than larger ones. This means that people who wait until the last minute to go turkey shopping may find themselves stuck with bigger birds. As Phil Lempert, food industry analyst and editor of SupermarketGuru, told CNBC, "it takes about five months for a turkey to grow to be 20, 22 pounds, which is the typical turkey size."

     火鸡产量的降低自然会导致价格的上涨。此外，作为对新冠肺炎的预防措施，政府鼓励人们举行小型感恩节聚会，这使得小火鸡更受欢迎，人们更有可能先去抢购它们。去晚的人会发现自己没得挑了，只剩下了大火鸡。食品行业分析师、《超级市场》杂志的编辑菲尔·莱姆伯特告诉CNBC（美国消费者新闻与商业频道），“一般的火鸡大约需要五个月才能长到20-22磅。”

*CNBC：美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）是美国NBC环球集团持有的全球性财经有线电视卫星新闻台，是全球财经媒体中的佼佼者，其深入的分析和实时报导赢得了全球企业界的信任。

三、火鸡生产商会大赚一笔吗？

    On the one hand, turkey producers are likely to do well this Thanksgiving season because of the higher prices. 

    "The producers are going to come out well because they're selling at prices higher than last year's prices," Dr. Thomas Elam, president of FarmEcon LLC, told Watt Poultry USA, an industry trade publication. "And it's traditional for retailers to lose money on whole turkeys this time of year and they may take a little deeper losses if demand's gone weak."

    另一方面，由于今年感恩节火鸡价格的上涨，火鸡生产商可能会因此盈利。

    “火鸡的销售价格高于去年的价格，所以生产者将会大赚一笔，”农场经济有限责任公司总裁托马斯·埃兰向《美国瓦特家禽》采访人员表示。“往年这个时候，火鸡零售商都赚不了钱。如果需求也下降了，他们可能会遭受更大的损失。”

   Not all turkey farmers feel the same way, though. As one turkey farmer in Pennsylvania told a local news affiliate, he is concerned that not as many people will be interested in purchasing his 16 to 22 pound birds by Thanksgiving and that he could be stuck with a surplus if they are not sold by Christmas.

   然而，有些火鸡饲养者却不这么想。宾夕法尼亚州的一位火鸡农场主告诉当地一家新闻机构，他担心没有人在感恩节买他的16-22磅重的火鸡。如果在圣诞节前还没有售完，那么火鸡就可能过剩。