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成为“绞肉机”的巴赫穆特
法国皇帝拿破仑·波拿巴以厌恶撤退闻名。他曾说：“不管撤退方式如何巧妙，它总会打击军队的士气。在战斗中，敌人承受的损失和你一样多，而在撤退中，你单方面损失，对方却完好无损。”
乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基似乎也有相同的想法——他拒绝了从巴赫穆特撤退的想法。
同时，俄罗斯也一心想在巴赫穆特打胜仗——该地点距离索莱达仅6英里。两个月前，俄罗斯雇佣的瓦格纳集团在那里牺牲了数千名新兵后，攻陷了索莱达。
那么，对于乌克兰来说，巴赫穆特真的值得坚守吗？或者，泽连斯基只是像拿破仑一样，拒绝从看起来像是一场“绞肉机”的战斗中撤离？
So, for Ukraine, is Bakhmutreally worth it? Or is Zelenskyy being Napoleon-like in his refusal to disengage from what appears to be a meat-grinder of a battle?
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下图为 2023年3月2日乌克兰战场示意图
Bakhmut（巴赫穆特）在中部-BBC制图
巴赫穆特的战斗是到目前为止最长和最血腥的战斗，看到瓦格纳集团老板叶甫根尼·普里戈日金再次将他的大部分士兵（主要是从俄罗斯监狱招募的）不顾一切地投入战场，观察员和双方经验丰富的战士都感到震惊。
Bakhmut is the longest andbloodiest battle of the war so far, and it has seen Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin once again hurl his men — mostly recruited from Russian jails — into the maelstrom with a reckless abandon that’s shocked observers and seasoned fighters on both sides.
一名最近逃到挪威的俄罗斯叛逃者安德烈·梅德韦杰夫告诉记者，这些投入战场的前罪犯们在巴赫穆特被当作炮灰。“在我的30人的班里，只有三个人活下来了。然后上面又补充了更多的囚犯，其中许多人也死了。”他说。
Andrey Medvedev, a Russian defector who recently fled to Norway, told reporters last month that the former convicts were being used as cannon fodder at Bakhmut. “In my platoon, only three men out of 30 survived. We were then given more prisoners, and many of them also died,” he said.
但是乌克兰人承认他们在巴赫穆特也遭受了重大伤亡，俄罗斯正包围该地区。他们表示，俄罗斯和乌克兰士兵的阵亡比率是7比1，尽管北约军事官员认为这个比率更接近5比1。
But the Ukrainians acknowledge they’ve also been suffering significant casualties at Bakhmut, which Russia is coming ever closer to encircling. They claim Russia’s losing seven soldiers for each Ukrainian life lost — though NATO military officials put the ratio closer to 5-to-1.
损失如此巨大，一些分析师质疑争夺这个曾经拥有7万人口的残破小镇具有什么战术意义。他们认为这更像是一场象征性的对抗——乌克兰完全可以在不危及邻近的和更重要的城镇的情况下脱离这场对抗。一些西方官员私下认为，泽连斯基应该更早地从巴赫穆特撤出，就像俄罗斯在11月进行的战术撤退一样。
Amid such losses, some analysts have questioned the tactical sense in fighting over the now wrecked town that once had a population of 70,000, arguing this has become more of a symbolic confrontation — one Ukraine could disengage from without risk to neighboring and more important towns. And some Western officials have been privately contending that Zelenskyy may have been better advised to withdraw from Bakhmut much sooner, in much the same way Russia made a tactical retreat in November.
但本周，泽连斯基 为自己辩护。在一次电视讲话和接受CNN采访时，这位领导人说 "这是战术性的"，并强调乌克兰的高级将领们团结一致支持他的决定。
But this week, Zelenskyy defended his decision. In a television address and an interview with CNN, the leader said “this is tactical”.
他表示，“如果俄罗斯最终成功地占领了巴赫穆特，他们可以占领更多城镇。”
他还给出了要求他的部队坚守的另一个理由。他说：“俄罗斯亟需胜利——哪怕只是一场小小的胜利，哪怕只是毁掉巴赫穆特的一切，杀死那里的所有平民。” 他补充说，如果俄罗斯能够将国旗挂在巴赫穆特的上空，就有助于其动员全民相信俄军战斗力强大。
He also included an additional reason for asking his troops to doggedly slog it out as well: “Russia needs at least some victory — a small victory — even by ruining everything in Bakhmut, just killing every civilian there,” he said. Adding that if Russia is able to “put their little flag” on top of the town, it would help “mobilize their society in order to create this idea they’re such a powerful army.”
部分美国高级将领也支持乌克兰尽可能久地守住巴赫穆特。美国退役将军、前中央情报局局长大卫·彼得雷乌斯（David Petraeus）表示：“我认为，在此刻，考虑到俄罗斯人战时遭受的巨大伤亡，让俄军在巴赫穆特陷入苦战是正确的行动方案。”
“I think, at this moment, using Bakhmut to allow the Russians to impale themselves on it is the right course of action, given the extraordinary casualties that the Russians are taking,” retired general and former CIA Director David Petraeus told POLITICO.
另一位退役美国将军，同时也是美国欧洲陆军和第七陆军的前司令员马克·赫特林（Mark Hertling）说，因为俄罗斯军队的内讧与指挥失调，他们损失巨大。赫特林认为，巴赫穆特战役暴露出俄军缺乏统一指挥，其各部的指挥官一直都存在矛盾。
That toll is especially high thanks to Russia’s infighting and lack of coordination, according to Mark Hertling, another retired U.S. general and former commander of the U.S. Army Europe and the Seventh U.S. Army. According to Hertling, the battle of Bakhmut is showing the lack of unity of command in the Russian forces, with various commanders seemingly at cross-purposes the whole time.
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在巴赫穆特，透过一扇破碎的窗户可以看到被俄罗斯炮击损毁的房屋。摄于2023年1月24日
Diego Herrera Carcedo
—Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
彼得雷乌斯 说：“显然，这一切都有赖于一点假设：俄罗斯并没有取之不竭的人力资源，我想这就是当下的实情。举个例子，他们实际上仅仅有一个尚未完全投入战斗的师可用，而要想取得战场上的胜利，这点预备队太少了。”
“Obviously, this all hinges a bit on an assumption that the Russians don’t have inexhaustible manpower, and I think that’s the case right now,” he said. “For example, they literally only have one division that’s not already committed in battle. That’s a very small reserve to have available to exploit any battlefield success.”
他还认为，俄罗斯短期内不可能再将自己明显的人口优势转化为军事优势。他说：“俄罗斯的下一轮征兵不会早于4月1日。” 因此，交战双方巨大的阵亡比率——不论是7:1还是5:1——都明示俄罗斯面临着严峻的战争后果。
Petraeus sees no chance that Russia will be able to turn its significantly larger national population to its military advantage anytime soon. “Russia’s next scheduled conscription cycle doesn’t start until April 1." So, the big difference in kill-ratios — whether it’s 7-to-1 or 5-to-1 — does mean there are serious battlefield ramifications for Russia.
这个“绞肉机”式的观点也许是 泽连斯基 自己都不能说清道明的，因为从某种意义上来讲，乌克兰人也在承受着巨大的“牺牲”。就在这周，他就已经说过：“当然，我们也要考虑自己部队的存亡。”
This meat-grinder argument is maybe one Zelenskyy can’t make explicit himself because, in a sense, Ukrainian lives are being “sacrificed.” Just this week the Ukrainian leader had said,“of course, we have to think about the lives of our military.”
但是据 彼得雷乌斯 所说，因为俄军蒙受了更大的伤亡，所以乌军的损失也就显得合算了——这也是乌军坚持打巴赫穆特保卫战的一个关键原因。
But this is a key reason, according to Petraeus, for continuing the fight at Bakhmut — Ukraine’s losses are justified by the much larger toll being taken by the Russian military.
因此，就目前而言，要求军队坚守巴赫穆特是泽连斯基仅有的选择。因为俄罗斯打这场仗所付出的代价更加高昂。
So, for now, Zelenskyy has little choice but to ask his doughty fighters to hold at Bakhmut. The cost is much higher for Russia.
编译 | 高语阳 周旭阳 郭宇航
排版 | 张玉兴
原文链接：
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-war-volodymyr-zelenskyy-no-choice-hold-bakhmut-for-now/
