2531年，所有日本人的姓氏都将是“佐藤”？
Everyone in Japan will have the same surname “Sato” by 2531 unless laws are changed to allow married couples to have different names, according to a new study led by Hiroshi Yoshida, a professor of economy at Tohoku University.
日本东北大学(Tohoku University)经济学教授吉田宏(Hiroshi Yoshida)领导的一项新研究显示，如果日本不修改法律，允许已婚夫妇使用不同姓氏，预计到 2531 年，日本所有人都将使用同一个姓氏：“佐藤”（Sato）。
根据 2023 年 3 月的一项调查，佐藤已经在日本姓氏排行榜上名列榜首，占日本总人口的 1.5%，铃木（Suzuki）紧随其后。
CREDIT: Marcin Nowak/alamy
依据吉田的计算，从 2022 年到 2023 年，姓佐藤的日本人的比例增加了 1.0083 倍。假设这一比率保持不变，而且有关姓氏的法律没有改变，那么到 2446 年，大约一半的日本人将拥有这个姓氏，到 2531 年，这一比例将上升到 100%。
为什么“佐藤”可能成为日本唯一姓氏？
In Japan, couples who marry are legally required to choose either the husband or wife’s surname, as stipulated in Article 750 of the Civil Code, and nearly all choose the husband's surname. A man who wishes to support his wife's desire to keep her surname must defy convention and social pressure - something that few seem prepared to do.
在日本，根据《民法典》第 750 条的规定，结婚的夫妇必须选择丈夫或妻子的姓氏，而几乎所有妻子都会选择跟夫姓。一个男人如果想支持妻子保留自己姓氏的愿望，就必须藐视习俗和社会压力——似乎很少有人愿意这么做。
The single-surname system is a legacy of Japan's traditional patriarchal family system, which placed men at the top of the family hierarchy and viewed women as entering the man's family upon marriage. A new constitution, created after World War Two, recognised equality between men and women and abolished the traditional family system. Yet, the single-surname rule remained.
单姓制度是日本传统父权家庭制度的遗产，这种制度将男性置于家庭等级的顶端，并将女性视为结婚后进入男性家庭的一员。第二次世界大战后制定的新宪法承认男女平等，废除了传统的家庭制度。然而，单一姓氏的规则流传至今。
The phenomenon of name extinction is called the Galton-Watson process, which posits that in patrilineal societies, surnames are lost or die out over time with each new generation as women take on their husbands’ surnames.
姓氏消失的现象被称为高尔顿-沃森过程(Galton-Watson process)。该过程假定，在父系社会中，如果每一代女性都采用丈夫的姓氏，久而久之，姓氏就会逐渐丢失或消亡。
While the government has allowed maiden names to appear alongside married names on passports, driving licences and residence certificates, Japan remains the only country in the world that requires spouses to use the same name.
虽然日本政府允许在护照、驾照和居住证上，婚前姓名和婚后姓名同时出现，但日本仍然是世界上唯一一个要求配偶使用相同姓名的国家。
So until the law on married surnames is changed, Japanese surnames are threatened to disappear.
因此，除非婚姻法改变，否则日本姓氏将面临消失的威胁。
人民视觉 资料图
姓氏统一为“佐藤”的危害
Prof Yoshida said that everyone having the same surname "will not only be inconvenient but also undermine individual dignity," according to Japanese newspaper Asahi Shimbun.
据日本《朝日新闻》报道，吉田教授表示，所有人都姓同一姓氏“不仅不方便，还会损害个人尊严”。
31 岁的高桥京子（化名）已经和丈夫结婚两年了，但使用他的姓氏仍然感到很尴尬。她说她感到沮丧，因为她不得不放弃自己的一部分个人身份，仅仅因为她是一个女性。
“Considering that a family name has a family history and is also a cultural symbol, its loss would mean that the history of the family name would also cease to exist,” Mr Yoshida told The Japan Times.
吉田在接受《日本时报》采访时表示：“考虑到姓氏有家族史，也是一种文化象征，它的消失意味着姓氏的历史也将不复存在。”
姓氏规则改变运动迫在眉睫
A movement to change the rules around surnames has been brewing, led by women's rights advocates and those trying to preserve the diversity of the Japanese surnames in a nation where a handful of names are becoming increasingly common.
日本正在酝酿一场改变姓氏规则的运动，其领导者是女权倡导者，以及那些试图在一个少数姓氏越来越普遍的国家里保持日本姓氏多样性的人。
丨BLOOMBERG
Many people in Japan believe it's time for a rethink. "If everyone becomes Sato, we may have to be addressed by our first names or by numbers." Prof Yoshida said ,"I don't think we can call that a good world to live in."
许多日本人应该重新思考这个问题了。“如果每个人都变成佐藤，我们可能必须直呼其名或给姓名编码。我们不能称之为一个美好的世界。”吉田教授说道。
-END-
原文链接：
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/backstories/1599/
https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/12/23/allow-married-women-japan-keep-their-surnames
https://japantoday.com/category/features/lifestyle/why-married-couples-in-japan-must-have-same-surname
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/04/02/japan-same-surname-500-years-law-changed-sato-2531-tohoku/
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/03/asia/japan-people-could-all-be-called-sato-by-2531-intl-hnk/index.html
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