2023，我的AI年度总结

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Artificial intelligence went mainstream in 2023 — yet it has a long way to go for the technology to match people’s science fiction fantasies of human-like machines.

人工智能在 2023 年成为潮流、走向主流——但 AI 要迭代到科幻电影中的机器人的样子，还有很长的路要走。

Catalyzing a year of AI fanfare was ChatGPT. The chatbot gave the world a glimpse of recent advances in computer science even if not everyone figured out quite how it works or what to do with it.

让人工智能在今年大张旗鼓的催化剂是 ChatGPT。这个聊天机器人让世界见识到计算机科学的最新进展，尽管还有很多人不知道它怎样运行的，也不知道拿它怎么办。

(AP Photo/Matt Rourke)

It was a year for people to figure out “what this is, how to use it, what’s the impact — all the good, the bad and the ugly,” pioneering AI scientist Fei-Fei Li said.

人工智能先驱科学家李飞飞说，23 年，人们试图弄清“这是什么，怎么用它，有什么影响——所有好的，坏的和丑陋不堪的”。

(AP Photo/Michael Dwyer)

The new AI law will take a few years to fully take effect, and other lawmaking bodies — including the U.S. Congress — are still a long way from enacting their own.

新的人工智能法将需要几年时间才能完全生效，而包括美国国会在内的其他立法机构想要制定自己的法案，还有很长的路要走。

毫无疑问，2023 年推出的商用 AI 产品的技术是巨大的突破。

But the latest generative AI trend is at peak hype, according to the market research firm Gartner, which has tracked what it calls the “hype cycle” of emerging technology since the 1990s. Picture a wooden rollercoaster ticking up to its highest hill, about to careen down into what Gartner describes as a “trough of disillusionment” before coasting back to reality.

市场研究公司 Gartner 自 20 世纪 90 年代以来一直在追踪新兴技术的 "炒作周期"，该公司认为，时下最热门的AI正被炒作推上高峰。可以想象成一个木制过山车缓缓爬升到最高点，即将急速下降进入 Gartner描述的“失望低谷”，然后再回到现实中平稳运行。

译注：所谓失望低谷是指技术成熟度曲线中的一个阶段。技术成熟度曲线是对各种新技术或其他创新的常见发展模式的图形描述。

Credit：Gartner

Gartner analyst Dave Micko said leading AI developers are pushing certain ways of applying the latest technology, most of which correspond to their current line of products — be they search engines or workplace productivity software. That doesn’t mean that’s how the world will use it.

Gartner 分析师 Dave Micko 表示，领先的 AI 开发者正在把这些最新的技术应用在各方面，其中大多数应用与已有的产品生产方向一致——无论是搜索引擎还是用于工作的效率软件。但这并不意味着世界就一定会这样使用人工智能技术。

Credit：Gartner

“As much as Google and Microsoft and Amazon and Apple would love us to adopt the way that they think about their technology and that they deliver that technology, I think adoption actually comes from the bottom up,” he said.

他说：“尽管谷歌、微软、亚马逊和苹果非常希望我们能像他们一样认可他们的技术，但我认为接纳实际上是自下而上的。”

It’s easy to forget that this isn’t the first wave of AI commercialization. Computer vision techniques developed by Li and other scientists helped sort through a huge database of photos to recognize objects and individual faces and help guide self-driving cars. Speech recognition advances made voice assistants like Siri and Alexa a fixture in many people’s lives.

互联网是没有记忆的，这其实并不是 AI 商业化的第一波浪潮。李和其他科学家开发的计算机视觉技术能够分析一个庞大的照片数据库，重点学习识别物体和面孔，并辅助自动驾驶汽车。语音识别的迭代使像 Siri 和 Alexa 这样的语音 AI 在许多人生活中占据一席之地。

“When we launched Siri in 2011, it was at that point the fastest-growing consumer app and the only major mainstream application of AI that people had ever experienced,” said Tom Gruber, co-founder of Siri Inc., which Apple bought and made an integral iPhone feature and people hardly remember as an independent app.

Siri 公司的联合创始人汤姆·格鲁伯说：“当我们 2011 年推出 Siri 时，它是发展最快的 app，也是大众用过的唯一一个 AI 主流 app”。之后苹果收购了该公司并将其变成了 iPhone 的内置功能，Siri app 被人遗忘，泯然众人矣。

But Tom believes what’s happening now is the “biggest wave ever” in AI, unleashing new possibilities as well as dangers.

但汤姆认为，现在正在发生的事情是 AI 领域“有史以来最大的浪潮”，新的机遇和风险并存。

In the longer term, AI technology’s rapidly improving language, visual perception and step-by-step planning capabilities could supercharge the vision of a digital assistant — but only if granted access to the “inner loop of our digital life stream,” T said.

汤姆说，从长远来看，AI 技术快速迭代的语言、图片识别和逐步规划能力可以使其不仅成为一个电子助手——但前提是能够进入“我们数字生活流的内循环”。