在通货膨胀上升、原油价格上涨与新兴市场推动的背景下，可以预见未来一年全球机票、酒店与地面交通价格将显著增长。
2017年7月 · 波士顿讯
近日，全球领先的商务旅行管理公司嘉信力旅运（CWT）与全球商务旅行协会（GBTA）旗下教研机构GBTA Foundation联合发布2018全球商务旅行价格预测报告，报告显示，商务旅行价格将在未来一年显著增长，部分领域价格增幅将达到4%。此外，全球机票价格在2018年也将出现3.5%的增幅。
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Strength in Global Economy Means Higher Travel Pricing in 2018
Air, Hotel and Ground Transportation All See Upticks on Back of Rising Inflation, Higher Oil Prices and Emerging Markets
Boston · July 2017
According to the fourth annual 2018 Global Travel Forecast, travel prices are expected to rise sharply in the coming year, reaching nearly 4% increases in some sectors.
Released today by Carlson Wagonlit Travel, the global travel management company, and the GBTA Foundation, the education and research arm of the Global Business Travel Association, The 2018 Global Travel Forecast shows global airfares are expected to rise 3.5% in 2018; hotel prices are expected to be 3.7% higher; and ground transportation such as taxis, trains and buses are expected to rise only 0.6% - significantly less than the 3% inflation forecast for 2018.
"The higher pricing is a reflection of the stronger economy and growing demand," said Kurt Ekert, president and CEO, Carlson Wagonlit Travel. "The global numbers from this forecast should be considered strong leading indicators of what 2018 will mean for global businesses, as we anticipate higher spending."
2018 Air Projections
The uptick in global airfares comes as crude oil prices rise, in spite of airlines adding an expected 6% capacity in 2018. Complicating airline pricing is increased segmentation of basic fares among large carriers. Travelers now have the option of choosing a basic economy, restricted fare versus various upgraded fares, with specific service options and pricing varying by airline.
2018 Hotel Projections
Globally, the 3.7% average increase in hotel prices masks what is actually happening on a regional level. Europe is expected to post strong increases, while other regions are barely keeping up with inflation. Additionally, prices are expected to fall in Latin America and the Caribbean. We expect the impact of the 2017 mergers will be felt during the 2018 RFP season.
Suppliers are progressively moving corporate buyers away from fixed, negotiated hotel rates and toward dynamic rate pricing. There is also a global trend towards "smarter" hotels, with hotels investing in beacon technologies, messaging, in-room entertainment and more. Increasingly tech-savvy guests will use apps to check in and out, unlock their hotel room door, operate the television remotely and control room temperature.
2018 Ground Transportation Projections
Ground transportation pricing is expected to rise only 0.6% in 2018 (but 5.5% by 2022). Industry experts predict record new car sales over the next five years, pushing up per unit fleet costs, while used car pricing is expected to fall 50%, hurting residual value for used rental cars and making current rental car pricing unsustainable. Market-specific regulations for curbing emissions, and rising oil prices have suppliers' already increasing availability of "green" rental cars.
Sharing economy players such as Uber and Lyft are expected to continue double-digit growth upwards of 10% in 2018, before settling down into single-digit growth for 2019. Their growth is under threat by costly regulation and government bans.
About the 2018 Forecast
Forecast projections provided by CWT Solutions Group. Data analysis provided by Rockport Analytics.
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