近日，以倡导”B2B4E˂¹˃”新生态商业模式的领先国际差旅品牌CWT旗下咨询分支机构CWT解决方案部 (CWT Solutions Group) 发布了最新航空价格趋势预测：截止4月，全球平均机票价格（Average ticket prices，简称ATP）预计较之二月整体下滑4个百分点至673美元。在此之前，机票价格在年初两月增幅迅猛。
上述预测发布在CWT解决方案部第三期航空价格趋势预测报告˂²˃ (双月刊) 中，报告中所有预测均使用了专有算法。
全球ATP在今年1月同比增长6%，并在此基础上在2月又有了3%增幅上扬高至702美元。这一机票上涨现象是由于全球航司实施全新商业政策与收益管理模式所致。
“根据我们预测，2019年平均机票价格将继续呈上扬态势。”CWT解决方案部副总裁Christophe Renard先生认为：”其中一个原因是越来越多航司正在逐渐采纳IATA的新分销能力 (NDC) 技术标准从而推动自身诸如选位费以及行李费之类的附加收入。
与此同时，鉴于在线预订工具 (Online Booking Tool，简称OBT) 供应商一直在不断优化用户体验，OBT特别是其对应手机App的使用率将不断提升。企业差旅管理团队也会鼓励他们的差旅人士更多使用OBT以及对应的手机App来预订行程。
全球OBT使用率在去年10月至12月上涨6%后持续保持平稳，基本保持在48%左右。预计三月至四月仍有增幅，预计50%的预订将通过OBT实现。
报告同时显示差旅人士的预购行为将在接下来两个月间有所下降。年底出于预算考量，强化差旅政策以及缩减开支的行为都会在12月有效改善预购行为，这一影响延展至1-2月，在此情况下，47%的机票会在出发前14天进行预订。目前，大多公司差旅监管较年底呈相对宽松状态，预计3-4月会下滑至43%。
“为了有效控制成本，我们建议差旅经理需要不断强调提前预订购买的重要性，必要时，可以在OBT上提醒或者与个别差旅人士进行一对一沟通。”Renard说道：“当然确保OBT能够直接嵌入企业机构的差旅政策也很重要，同时还要确保这些工具应用适应全球各个市场。”
<1> 以客户员工为核心的企业与企业之间的商业模式，英文为business to business for employees
<2> 每两个月，CWT解决方案部将基于最新的航空数据为差旅经理们提供价格预测，为公司预订决策提供关键信息
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Average Ticket Price for Air Bookings Expected to Fall 4% by April: CWT Solutions Group
CWT Solutions Group, the consulting arm of CWT, the B2B4E˂¹˃ travel management platform, forecasts global average ticket prices (ATP) for air bookings will drop to around US$673 by April, down just over 4% from February levels, as published fares correct from the sharp increase seen in the first two months of the year.
These findings are published in the third edition of its bi-monthly Air Trends Report˂²˃, which uses a proprietary algorithm to predict changes.
The global ATP climbed approximately 6% month-on-month in January, and then a further 3% in February, to reach US$702. This was largely the result of airlines across the globe implementing new commercial policies and revenue management models, which pushed up airfares.
"We foresee a continued upward trend in the average ticket price through 2019," said Christophe Renard, Vice President of CWT Solutions Group. "One of the reasons is that more airlines are looking to adopt IATA's New Distribution Capability (NDC) standard as a means to generate greater ancillary revenues such as seat selection and baggage fees."
Meanwhile, the usage of Online Booking Tools (OBTs) continues to gradually increase as the main OBT providers continue to improve the user experience, especially on mobile apps. Efforts are also being made to improve the content available through these channels. At the same time, corporate travel management teams are encouraging their travelers to book through OBTs and mobile apps.
OBT usage was stable at around 48% globally in January and February, after a 6% increase from October to December. It is forecast to rise again in March and April, with more than 50% of all bookings expected to be made through OBTs for the first time ever.
The report also predicts that travelers' advance purchase behavior will worsen in over the next two months. Stricter enforcement of travel policies as a result of year-end budget considerations and belt-tightening saw improved advance purchase behavior in December, and this carried over to January and February – with around 47% of tickets booked more than 14 days prior to departure. With companies now relaxing travel restrictions, this is expected fall to 43% in March and April.
"In order to keep a handle on costs, travel managers are advised to stress the importance of booking in advance, either as a message displayed on the OBT or through targeted communications to individual travelers," said Renard. "It's also important to ensure that OBTs are properly set up to reflect the organization's travel policy, or to configure these tools with bespoke settings for each market."
<1> Business to business for employees
<2> Every two months, CWT's advanced predictive analytics will use the latest data available to provide travel managers with our price forecast for air, bringing the crucial information closer to when booking decisions are made.
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