2018年7月24日讯
根据GBTA与CWT于2018年7月24日联合发布并获得卡尔森家族基金会（Carlson Family Foundation）特别支持的第五期年度《商务旅行价格趋势》报告显示，全球经济前景预期向好以及原油价格持续上行将带动2019年差旅支出大幅度增长。
“市场整体呈现复苏向好态势，但不可否认，贸易保护政策的升级、贸易摩擦带来的负面效应以及英国退出欧盟后的不确定性还是会让全球经济面临一定下行风险，”GBTA执行董事及首席运营官Michael W. McCormick认为，“我们希望藉由本次趋势预测能够帮助差旅买家更好得梳理全球市场现状，同时充分掌握与差旅项目息息相关的多个关键价格信息，从而确保企业差旅项目成功。”
“虽然通货膨胀在全球范围内有所抑制，但物价还是持续普遍上涨”，嘉信力旅运（Carlson Wagonlit Travel）首席执行官Kurt Ekert表示，“这份报告会深入讨论这一现状，同时会对全球主要市场做一个瞭望。当然，我们也会在报告中给出一些建设性意见，这样可以让差旅经理在接下来的议价环节中有所参考。”
全球差旅行业的驱动者全球商务旅行协会（Global Business Travel Association）与全球知名差旅品牌CWT联手推出的《2019全球商务旅行价格趋势》发布了将会推动和影响行业发展的趋势和现象。
“企业差旅的未来可以概括为‘深度个性化’ – 手机技术、人工智能、机器学习以及预测分析都将会对这个行业起到重要作用，”Ekert认为，“技术的推进以及精密的数据分析将直接影响到行业成败。”
▎2019年航空预测
超长航线的引入以及来自廉价航空的价格优势会对长航线形成一定压力，同时，各大航空公司都在积极推行NDC，这些因素都会构建航空业的新格局。
基于原油价格上涨、飞行员短缺、贸易摩擦与机票价格持续细分以增加收益的原因，全球机票价格将保持上升态势。
2019年，亚太地区机票价格预计平均上涨3.2%。中国市场需求坚挺，预计2020年成为全球第一航空旅游大国，2019年中国机票价格预计上涨3.9%。当然，不止是中国，该地区的多数国家机票价格都将呈现上升趋势，新西兰（7.5%）与印度（7.3%）表现尤为突出。后者预计将于2025年将会成为全球第三大航空市场，机场实际运营承载量可能超出容量。这个价格上升地区中的唯一特例为日本。由于该国正投入建设备战2020年东京奥运会，预计明年机票价格将下降3.9%。
而在欧洲、中东与非洲地区，航空旅游将在西欧地区增幅显著，机票价格预计上涨4.8%。增幅将主要发生在挪威（11.5%）、德国（7.3%）、法国（6.9%）以及西班牙（6.7%）。东欧、中东与非洲地区国家机票价格则恰恰相反，预计将分别有2.3%以及2%的相应下降。
2019年拉丁美洲地区预计机票价格平均下降2%，但墨西哥与哥伦比亚将分别有0.1%与1.2%的小幅增长，与此同时智利机票价格则预计有7.5%的大面积涨幅。
根据预测显示，北美地区机票价格将有1.8%的涨幅。美国的航空公司将会根据对外贸易关系的变化进行市场调整。美国航空市场可能由于扩大的机票价格细分以及由于飞行利润改善而导致的超级经济舱与普通经济舱位减少而造成缩减。
▎2019年酒店预测
随着航空旅游的整体态势见好，2019年酒店业务趋势也将递增。技术依旧会在酒店行业中扮演重要角色。各大酒店着力提升旅客的个性化体验。移动技术的提升在另一方面也迫使差旅经理向他们的差旅员工提供旅行手机应用，保障他们在差旅政策允许的范围内进行自由舒适的差旅住宿预订。
同时，由于越来越多年轻差旅员工开始崇尚精品酒店服务，高端酒店开始与中端酒店出现展开业务竞争现象。
亚太地区酒店价格预计明年平均上涨5.1%，与地区趋势相反，日本酒店价格预计将下降3.2%。新西兰预计将大幅上升11.8%。澳大利亚预计在2019年至2020年间将投放大量新客房，预计新客房的增长比例可达3.4%。在印度尼西亚，瑞雅酒店（Swiss-Belhotel International）将进行经济型酒店品牌扩张，泽斯特酒店（Zest Hotels）将在未来三年进行版图扩张，预计酒店数量递增三倍。新加坡则更注重技术应用，智能酒店日渐趋多。泰国虽然经历了一段时期的政治波动，但酒店业前景持续看好。
在欧洲、中东与非洲地区，酒店价格状况与机票价格相似，西欧地区酒店价格预计将上涨5.6%，东欧、中东与非洲地区则分别有1.9%以及1.5%的下降。其中挪威将大幅上升11.8%。紧随其后的是西班牙8.5%（有望取代美国成为第二热门旅游目的地）、芬兰（7.1%）、法国（6.8%）与德国（6.8%）。
拉丁美洲地区酒店价格将下降1.3%，其中阿根廷下降3.5%、委内瑞拉下降3.4%、巴西下降1.9%、哥伦比亚下降0.7%。而智利、秘鲁以及墨西哥与地区趋势相反，分别有6.4%、2.1%和0.6%的增长。
北美地区酒店价格普遍增长2.1%，其中加拿大为5%；美国则为2.7%。
▎2019年地面交通预测
2019年全球地面交通价格预计平均上浮0.6%，但预计明年第四季度，汽车租赁企业可能出现统一价格上调现象。
预测发现，2019年全球差旅人员对打车软件关注度普遍提升。与此同时部分地区由于铁路运营成本过高以及路线规划不合理等原因而促使高速铁路出行呈现颓势。
手机移动应用将持续升温。关于专车、共享车、电动车以及互联网汽车的话题热度走强。互联网汽车技术的出现可能冲击整个汽车工业。
亚洲地区，新西兰（4%）、印度（2.7%）以及澳大利亚（2.4%）的地面交通价格将持续呈现上涨趋势。滴滴出行正在中国加速布局自动驾驶业务。今年，东南亚网约车企业Grab收购优步（Uber）东南亚业务，而印度尼西亚的Go-Jek也正在加速扩张越南、泰国、菲律宾以及新加坡业务。
在欧洲、中东与非洲地区，芬兰、法国、德国、意大利和西班牙等国家地面交通价格普遍上涨4%，丹麦和英国分别上涨3%和2%。挪威更将出现10%的大幅增长。而瑞典则有13.9%大幅递减，比利时小幅下降0.9%。
拉丁美洲地区的地面交通价格则表现为：阿根廷有9.7%大幅下降，紧随其后的是巴西（下降5.4%）以及墨西哥（下降0.3%）。智利则将有3.1%的上涨。
北美地区的地面交通价格预测为：加拿大在2019年会有3.6%的价格增幅，美国价格上涨1%。在美国，奥迪（Audi）旗下的Silvercar将持续迅猛扩张，这是一家面向市场提供移动租赁业务的智能手机租车应用公司，顾客通过使用它们的服务可以免去繁琐的书面材料递交工序以及窗口排队办理步骤。
■ 关于《2019全球商务旅行价格趋势》报告
《2019年商务旅行价格趋势》报告基于以下：
▫ 由GBTA与市场经济调研公司Rockport Analytics共同建立的统计模型，它对于历史价格行为进行评估并对未来价格趋势进行预估
▫ 来自嘉信力旅运与嘉信力旅运解决方案部的专业市场经验和多维度差旅知识
▫ Moody's Analytics、国际货币基金组织研究部、联合国以及其它知名组织机构发布的信息
▫ 趋势预测基于过去7年CWT全球客户（包括匿名）差旅交易数据。统计模型中使用到的主要宏观经济参数、类似现阶段及预期GDP增长之类的各国指数、消费价格指数、失业率、原油价格以及供给驱动因素取自OAG以及STR Global。所有航空统计数据采用源数据并包括各种旅行方式。
请点击【阅读原文】或登陆 www.carlsonwagonlit.com.cn 阅读完整报告。
Buoyant Global Economy Means Higher Hotel and Air Prices in 2019
24 July 2018
Travel prices are expected to rise sharply in 2019, with hotels going up 3.7%, and flights 2.6%, driven by a growing global economy and rising oil prices, according to the fifth annual Global Travel Forecast, published on July 24, 2018 by GBTA and CWT with the support of the Carlson Family Foundation.
"While most major markets appear to be trending in the right direction, downside risks remain for the global economy given the rise of protectionist policies, the risk of stoking trade wars and Brexit uncertainty," said Michael W. McCormick, GBTA executive director and COO. "This forecast provides travel buyers with a better understanding of the global market and key price drivers demonstrating the key to building successful travel programs will be watching and reacting to an ever-changing global landscape."
"Prices are expected to spike in many global markets even as inflation remains subdued," said Kurt Ekert, President and CEO, Carlson Wagonlit Travel. "The report explores the causes and includes an overview of what we expect to see in key markets worldwide. It also gives specific recommendations, giving travel managers ammunition for their upcoming negotiations."
Released by the Global Business Travel Association, the voice of the global business travel industry, and CWT, the global travel management company, the 2019 forecast also shows the trends and developments that will shape the business travel industry.
"The future of corporate travel can be summed up as accelerated personalization – with mobile technology, AI, machine learning and predictive analytics all playing their part," said Ekert. "Success is tied to technology, with sophisticated data-crunching at the very heart of it."
▎2019 air projections
The aviation sector will be shaped by the introduction of ultra-long-haul flights and an increasing competition from the low-cost carriers, which are not only multiplying but also fighting for long-haul routes – and by the airlines' push towards NDC.
Airfares are likely to become more expensive due to rising in oil prices, the competitive pressure from the shortage of pilots, potential trade wars, and increasing fare segmentation to improve yield.
Asia Pacific expects to see a 3.2% rise in 2019 pricing. Chinese demand remains high and by 2020 the country is expected to become the world's biggest air travel market. In 2019 the country’s flights are seen going up 3.9%. But China will not be alone. The vast majority of countries in the region will see price rises, especially in markets like New Zealand (7.5%) and India (7.3%). The latter is expected to be the world's third largest aviation market by 2025, with airports operating beyond capacity. The only exception in this booming region is Japan. Prices there will likely drop 3.9% due to the country's added capacity in preparation for the Olympic Games in 2020.
Across Europe, Middle East & Africa, air travel is anticipated to continue growing in Western Europe, with prices rising 4.8%. The increase will be especially pronounced in Norway (11.5%), followed by Germany (7.3%), France (6.9%) and Spain (6.7%). Eastern Europe and the Middle East & African countries, on the other hand, will experience a decline of 2.3% and 2% respectively.
Prices across Latin America are expected to drop 2% in 2019. However, México and Colombia will see slight increases –0.1% and 1.2% respectively– while Chile will experience a rise of 7.5%.
North America will see prices rise by a modest 1.8%, according to our projections. In the US, airlines are recalibrating to reflect better areas of demand, depending on how trade relationships change with key US allies and adversaries. The US aviation market is expected to see capacity compression due to expanded fare fragmentation, with premium economy and basic economy reducing available seats, as carriers target margin improvement.
▎2019 hotel projections
The hotel outlook for 2019 is driven by the overall increase in air travel, which will fuel demand for rooms. Technology will also play an important part. Hotels are introducing new developments to personalize the guest experience. The increase of mobile penetration, on the other hand, is forcing travel managers to offer their travelers apps, which also serve to accommodate greater in-policy booking autonomy.
Further mergers – and upscale hotels competing with midscale ones due in part to a growing appetite for boutique accommodation among younger travelers – will also be on the agenda.
In Asia Pacific, hotel prices are likely to rise 5.1% –with a large discrepancy as Japanese prices are expected to fall 3.2%, but New Zealand is set to rise a whopping 11.8%. In Australia, 2019 and 2020 are expected to bring the largest number of new rooms becoming available, with an increase of 3.4% of total supply each year. In Indonesia, Swiss-Belhotel International is embarking on an expansion of its budget brand, Zest Hotels, with plans to triple its portfolio of properties within three years. Singapore is embracing technology and smart hotels are on the rise. In Thailand, optimism is running especially high after a period of political tumult.
Mirroring air prices, hotel rates across Europe, Middle East & Africa are expected to rise in Western Europe 5.6%, while declining 1.9% in Eastern Europe and 1.5% in the Middle East & Africa. Again Norway will lead with a rise of 11.8%, followed by Spain (8.5%) – expected to replace the US as the world’s second most popular destination, Finland (7.1%) and France and Germany (6.8%).
Within Latin America, hotel prices are expected to fall 1.3%, with declines in Argentina (down 3.5%), Venezuela (down 3.4%), Brazil (down 1.9%) and Colombia (down 0.7%). However, Chile, Peru and Mexico are expected to see 6.4%, 2.1%, and 0.6% increases, respectively.
In North America hotel prices will go up 2.1% – 5% in Canada and 2.7% in the US.
▎2019 ground transportation projections
Next year, ground transportation pricing is expected to rise only 0.6% globally. However, by the fourth quarter of 2019, we will see a concerted effort by rental companies to raise prices.
2019 will also see a growing preference among travelers for ride-hailing apps while interest in high-speed trains is fading, due to high network costs and low-tech distribution systems.
Mobile mobility will rise. On-demand, shared, electric and connected cars will all become more popular. Connected car technology has the potential to change the entire automotive industry.
In Asia Pacific, markets like New Zealand (4%), India (2.7%) and Australia (2.4%) will see increases. In China, giant Didi Chuxing is making big bets on autonomous driving. This year, Uber has sold its Southeast Asian business to Singapore-based Grab and Indonesian Go-Jek is expanding to Vietnam, Thailand, Philippines and Singapore.
In Europe, Middle East & Africa, countries like Finland, France, Germany, Italy and Spain will see increases of over 4%, while Denmark and UK rates will grow 3% and 2% respectively. Norway will be in pole position with a 10% increase. On the downside, prices will drop dramatically in Sweden (13.9% down) and very slightly in Belgium (0.9% down).
Prices in Latin America will show strong decreases in Argentina (9.7% down) and Brazil (5.4% down) and a more moderated one in Mexico (0.3%). Chilean prices will be up 3.1%.
In North America, Canada is expected to see a 3.6% increase in 2019, and the United States a 1% increase. In the U.S., the Audi-owned, app-based car rental service, Silvercar, continues its aggressive expansion. The company offers mobile-first car rental without the lines and paperwork. For more detailed information, download the 2019 Global Travel Forecast now.
■ About the 2019 Forecast
The projections in the 2019 Global Travel Price Forecast are based on:
▫ A statistical model, developed by GBTA with market and economic research firm, Rockport Analytics, that evaluates historical price behavior and forecasts future price references.
▫ The market-specific expertise and travel industry knowledge of CWT and CWT Solutions Group personnel worldwide.
▫ Information sourced from Moody’s Analytics, the International Monetary Fund Research Department, the United Nations and other leading organizations.
▫ Projections are based on transaction data from CWT’s global client portfolio, including anonymized client travel patterns, over the past seven years. Key macroeconomic and per-country indicators, such as current and expected GDP growth, the consumer price index, unemployment rates and crude oil prices, were used in the statistical model, as well as key supply-side drivers sourced from OAG and STR Global. All air statistics represent point of origin and include all trip types.
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