CWT x GBTA市场前瞻 | 2022年全球商旅价格整体看涨

全球范围内，机票价格预计上涨3.3%，酒店价格上涨13%，地面交通上涨3.9%

2021年11月17日 | 明尼阿波利斯讯，根据CWT以及全球商务旅行协会（GBTA）近日联合发布的第七期年度《商务旅行价格趋势》显示，基于全球商旅需求复苏渐长、交通运力限制以及旅行人士对于出行可持续性问题的关注提升，全球差旅业价格将在未来两年内呈上升态势。

“全球差旅已逐渐迎来复苏，我们很高兴能见证人们开始恢复线下社交联结，而这个世界也正在回归疫前的传统生活节奏。”CWT首席执行官Michelle McKinney Frymire女士认为：“2022年最好的情况就是所有地域的商务旅行都将呈现更进一步的复苏，但是，所有的市场和旅行类别的复苏将不会以同一节奏进行。因此，差旅经理在进行年度规划时需要了解不同的规律和变化。”

全球商务差旅行业权威代表，全球商务旅行协会GBTA以及以倡导“面向企业 · 服务员工”(B2B4E) 新生态差旅商业模式的全球知名差旅品牌CWT于本月17日共同发布了《商务旅行价格趋势》，该预测使用了CWT与GBTA的双方数据，结合了行业公开信息，并启用了Avrio Institute的计量经济学与统计建模，展望了未来一年影响商务差旅行业的趋势和发展。

“当全球差旅开始复苏时，行业洞见与数据分析就显得尤为重要，他们可以在未来动态变化的一年内指引我们的行业向前。” GBTA首席执行官Suzanne Neufang女士点评道：“希望通过这份年度商务旅行价格趋势报告，企业差旅买家能够清晰掌握疫情影响下2021年差旅价格因素，洞察2022年影响差旅价格的宏观经济因素， 并收获对2022年差旅预算制定的指导。”

/ 宏观经济影响因素 /

2021年全球经济预计上涨5.9%，2022年预计在2021年基础上上浮4.9%，这将为差旅恢复带来契机。但是不可否认，多种不确定因素将可能影响全球宏观经济，一旦发生，商务旅行也将相应变化。

宏观经济环境、国家地区政策以及疫情管控措施将较之以往对全球差旅业价格变化起到更重要的影响。根据以往的行业经验，旅行市场不会立即恢复，在价格竞争方面商务出行表现更加理性。而个人出行中总有一些迫切需求，愿意在热门城市和线路的出行上支付更高价格。

尽管宏观经济挑战严峻，但2022年至2023年全球经济增长预期也将推动差旅恢复。这些因素包括了需求增长、运力限制、劳工增长以及燃油上涨，以上这些都会导致全球范围内的航空、酒店以及地面交通的价格增长。报告同时认为，虽然差旅价格普遍增长，但除去地面交通，其它众多价格未来两年很难超越2019年价格。

/ 航空 /

2019年全球机票价格上涨2.6%，2020年则下浮3.1%。2021年机票价格整体下降31%(其中头等舱下降38%，经济舱下降19%)。尽管如此，根据最新预测，2022年机票价格将会上涨3.3%，2023年则会继续有3.4%的上涨。

航空运力仍然吃紧。预计全面恢复将至2023年或2024年。结果就是，差旅出行将可能面临与个人出行竞争有限的航空运力。这将对2022年的航空票价起到一定影响，因为两类旅行者的出行需求都在同步增长。

头等舱的价格将预计从2023年行业开始恢复常态后复苏。经济舱的价格，特别是国内航线的经济舱价格将可能于2022年开始，继续受益于个人出行的恢复持续复苏。

国内个人出行目的地将持续帮助2022年的差旅复苏。疫前的差旅核心城市全面恢复还需时间，但随着疫苗普及差旅员工出行意愿增强。

燃油上涨以及航司运营费用递增也会进一步推高航空运价，同时航司也在寻求改善盈利水平。当然，2022年企业差旅政策变化也会是一个重要影响因素，它会相应改变企业价格。

/ 酒店 /

2019年全球酒店价格上涨3.5%，2020年则下浮8.3%。2021年酒店价格整体又下降17.7%，数据显示，2021年第三季度较之2019年价格将近下滑25%。

不过酒店价格预计于2022年上涨13%，2023年则在前一年基础上有10%增长，在很多市场，复苏至2019年价格水准线仍有漫漫长路。随着边境线的开放，酒店入住率会相应提高，因此，相应的，酒店价格也会在2022年上涨。

其中，中高档酒店将会迎来更高的入住率以及酒店价格，因为企业差旅将推动恢复。但是，随着全球人力成本、运营成本的增加以及部分采购链的中断，价格复苏至2019年将视以上因素是否稳定而尘埃落定。

企业会议与活动将影响酒店价格，CWT会议与活动预估将会有大量的中小型以及区域性会议预定。2021年，在全球范围内，虚拟会议以及线上线下融合的会议类型成为了趋势主导。线下会议则从2019年以及2020年平均42人下降为2021年的24人。

多数会议组织方开始选择一些小型的区域性会议，因为以往的大型会议都会包含相应一定量的差旅出行。但随着疫情好转，需求增加，许多商务人士愿意出行参会，这会为2022年带来改变。2022年上半年的会议与活动的需求，较之2021年，将会有53%的上升。

/ 地面交通 /

国际租车价格2020年下降2%，2021年则有1.2%的回升，2022年则有望上涨3.9%，以及2023年再上涨3.0%。

随着新交通工具供应受限，以及交通工具租赁需求增加，短期内，会推动相应价格上涨。

供应商可能短期内较为关注交通工具更新，但随着二手车市场的不景气，半导体芯片紧缺给汽车制造商带来的困境，预计交通工具的更新迭代将很难在2023年完成。

企业以及员工对于可持续性话题的关注，也会让电动车的供给也会成为未来三年的出行关键。一些供应商也在逐渐推进车队电气化，并搭建电桩，将预订混合动力和电动汽车加入到换乘和豪华轿车服务中。

一些关注气候变化的差旅员工将会选择火车而不是汽车租赁或航空出行，这样数量的出行者也在递增。法国已经将2.5小时火车车程可覆盖的国内航线取消。差旅员工也更关注他们的出行时间，特别是选择火车则意味着可以在途中进行办公，租赁车辆则无法办到。

关于《2022全球商务旅行价格趋势》报告

《2020年商务旅行价格趋势》报告基于以下：

• 统计模型由GBTA建立
• 评估模型来自于Avrio Institute对历史价格行为分析并预测航空、酒店和地面交通的未来价格
• 各地市场的专业知识和差旅行业知识来自CWT
• 来自穆迪分析公司 (Moody's Analytics)、国际货币基金组织研究部、联合国和其他领军机构的信息

预测以CWT全球客户群的交易数据为依据，包括过去十年的客户差旅模式（已匿名处理）。统计模型中使用了关键宏观经济指标和各国指标（例如当前和预计的GDP增长率、消费者物价指数、失业率、原油价格），以及来自OAG和STR Global 的关键供给方驱动因素。所有航空统计数据源自始发地统计，并包括所有旅行类型。

▋ 关于全球商务旅行协会 (GBTA)

全球商务旅行协会 (GBTA) 是全球首屈一指的商务差旅和会议贸易组织，其业务遍及四大洲，总部位于华盛顿特区。GBTA的会员每年管理超过3,450亿美元的全球商务差旅和会议费用。GBTA 为28,000多名差旅专业人士和125,000名活跃联系人组成并日益扩大的全球网络提供世界一流的培训、活动、研究、宣传和媒体内容。要了解商务差旅如何推动持续的业务增长，请访问www.gbta.org

▋ 关于CWT

CWT是一家交易量位于全球领先的国际差旅服务商，其经营实体遍及140个国家/地区，品牌历史逾140年。CWT希望藉由差旅管理项目在完善员工出行体验的同时，帮助企业实现差旅成本优化以及人员绩效提升，最终推进企业商业目标并释放无限可能。CWT是首家在华推出开放式API差旅管理平台的B2B4E（面向企业 · 服务员工）国际差旅管理服务商。不仅如此，CWT旗下还拥有专业的会议与活动的专属子品牌，帮助企业实现差旅与会议活动综合管理。

Global business travel pricing set to increase in 2022

Flight prices expected to rise 3.3%, hotel rates 13% and ground transportation 3.9%

MINNEAPOLIS, November 17, 2021 – Global travel pricing across air, ground, and hotels, is expected to increase in the next two years, primarily driven by increasing demand, capacity constraints, and travelers' sustainability demands, plus increased labor and fuel costs, according to the seventh annual Global Business Travel Forecast published today by CWT and the Global Business Travel Association (GBTA). 

 “Business travel recovery is underway, and it is really great to see people reconnecting and engaging once again, as the world returns to a more traditional pace of life,” said CWT Chief Executive Officer, Michelle McKinney Frymire. “While the best-case scenario for 2022 is for further recovery of business travel across all areas, not all markets, nor all categories, will recover at the same pace, so business travel managers will need to understand what to expect as we look at the year ahead.”

Released today by GBTA, the voice of the global business travel industry, and CWT, the B2B4E travel management platform - the 2022 Global Business Travel Forecast uses anonymized data generated by CWT and GBTA, with publicly available industry information, and econometric and statistical modelling developed by the Avrio Institute.

“As we turn toward recovery, insights and data will be critical to enable the business travel industry to navigate what will likely be a dynamic year ahead,” said Suzanne Neufang, Chief Executive Officer of GBTA. “This forecast is designed to help corporate travel buyers build and budget their 2022 travel programs through an informed summary of how the global pandemic influenced pricing in 2021, along with a detailed look at macroeconomic factors that will affect pricing in 2022.”

/ Macroeconomic influences /

The global economy is expected to grow 5.9% in 2021, followed by 4.9 % in 2022, spelling growth for business travel. However, several uncertainties remain on the periphery that could influence the macroeconomic outlook and the global travel economy.

Macroeconomic forces, government policy, and COVID protocols, will continue to impact future pricing more than ever before. As with previous industry interruptions, many travelers won’t return immediately, and the business traveler may find themselves in a price competition with the leisure traveler – who is leading the recovery and willing to pay higher prices on key city routes and destinations.

Even as macroeconomic challenges remain acute, global economy growth expectations across 2022 and 2023 will help accelerate the recovery of business travel. Factors including a pick-up in demand, capacity constraints, increased labour and fuel costs will lead to higher prices globally across air, hotel, and ground transportation. Despite these anticipated rises, business travel pricing, with the exception of ground transportation, is unlikely to exceed 2019 pricing over the next two years.

/ Air /

After rising 2.6% in 2019 air fares fell 3.1% in 2020 and a further 31% for business travellers, led by a 38% decline in premium class, followed by nearly a 19% decline in economy class tickets across 2021. However, air fares are expected to rise 3.3% in 2022, and 3.4% in 2023.

Airline capacity remains tight, and is unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels until 2023, or 2024. As a result, business travelers are competing for limited capacity with leisure travelers. This will continue to exert pressure on airfare prices in 2022, as they move in unison with demand. If demand increases faster than capacity returns, price increases could outpace these forecasted increases.

Premium fares are expected to start picking-up in 2023 as demand normalizes, while economy fares, especially on domestic routes, will continue to benefit from strong gains in leisure traffic going into 2022.

Domestic leisure destinations will continue to lead recovery in 2022, and, while urban centers with strong corporate traffic will take longer to recover, higher vaccination levels should strengthen business traveler confidence.

Higher oil prices increase operating costs, and will continue to put upward pressure on fares as airlines seek to improve profitability metrics, and 2022 corporate travel policies will also be a factor in the recovery of air fare on corporate-heavy rates.

/ Hotel /

After rising 3.5% in 2019, hotel prices fell 8.3% in 2020 and an additional 17.7% in 2021, with prices as of Q3 2021 down from 2019 levels by approximately 25%.

Although hotel prices are expected to rise 13% globally in 2022, followed by a further 10% in 2023, it will take some time for a return to 2019 levels in many markets. As borders open for non-essential travel, occupancy rates will rise, putting upwards pressure on pricing and 2022 will see a push in that direction.

Upscale hotels should see higher occupancy levels, and higher room rates, as business travel gains momentum. However, with higher global labor and operating costs and supply chain disruptions likely to continue, the firming of hotel pricing to 2019 levels may fluctuate until these factors become more consistent.

Corporate meetings & events will also help impact hotel pricing, and CWT Meetings & Events anticipates that the bulk of immediate meeting bookings will be small and regional. Virtual and hybrid meetings played a leading role in 2021, while the overall meeting size of live meetings dropped from an average of 42 attendees per meeting in 2019 and 2020, to an average of 24 attendees in 2021.

Many organizations appear to be choosing smaller regional meetings, as opposed to larger events involving travel at the current time, however, as restrictions lift, and pent-up demand leads to more people travelling for meetings, that looks set to change in 2022. Demand for meetings and events has increased 53% for the first half of 2022 from 2021.   

/ Ground transportation /

Global car rental prices fell 2% in 2020 and recovered 1.2% in 2021, and pricing is expected to increase 3.9% in 2022, and an additional 3.0% in 2023.

The restricted supply of new vehicles, combined with a boost in demand for rental vehicles, will drive higher price rises in the short- to medium-term.

Providers are looking to update their fleet as a matter of urgency, but with a shortfall in the used car market and issues with global car manufacturing due to shortages of semiconductor computer chips, fleets are unlikely to be fully replenished until 2023.

The offer of electric vehicles is also going to be pivotal over the next three years, with sustainability a key priority for employers and employees alike. Some providers are already making in-roads towards electrifying their fleet, building their own charging infrastructure, and adding the booking of hybrid and e-vehicles to transfer and limousine services.

Climate-conscious travelers may also choose rail over car rental (and short-haul flights) in increasing numbers. France has already moved to ban domestic flights on routes that can be travelled by train within two-and-a-half hours, and returning business travelers are being more conscious of their end-to-end travel time – plus the ability to work on the train which is obviously not possible when renting a vehicle.

About the 2022 Global Business Travel Forecast

Projections in the 2022 Global Business Travel Forecast involved:

• Statistical models developed by GBTA
• Evaluation of historical price behavior and forecasts on air, hotel and ground categories by research, strategy and market and economic research firm, Avrio Institute
• The market-specific expertise and travel industry knowledge of CWT
• Information sourced from the International Monetary Fund Research Department, IATA, the World Travel and Tourism Council, the United Nations and other leading organizations

Projections are based on anonymized transaction data from CWT’s global client portfolio, including anonymized client travel patterns, over the past ten years. Key macroeconomic and per-country indicators, such as current and expected GDP growth, the consumer price index, unemployment rates and crude oil prices, were used in the statistical model, as well as key supply-side drivers sourced from OAG and STR Global. All air statistics represent point of origin and include all trip types.

▋ About GBTA

The Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) is the world’s largest business travel and meetings trade organization representing the $1.4 trillion business travel industry. With operations across four continents, GBTA’s members manage more than $345 billion of global business travel and meetings expenditures annually. GBTA delivers world-class education, professional development, events, research, advocacy and media to a growing global network of more than 28,000 travel professionals and 125,000 active contacts. Visit www.gbta.org and follow us on LinkedIn, YouTube, Twitter and Facebook.

▋ About CWT

CWT is a Business-to-Business-for-Employees (B2B4E) travel management platform. Companies and governments rely on us to keep their people connected – anywhere, anytime, anyhow – and across six continents, we provide their employees with innovative technology and an efficient, safe and secure travel experience. Every single day, we look after enough travelers to fill more than 100,000 hotel rooms, while our meetings and events division handles more than 100 events every 24 hours.

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