Suzanne Neufang
全球商务旅行协会GBTA首席执行官
过去八年间，CWT与全球商务旅行协会GBTA每年都会联合发布一份全球商务旅行行业价格趋势分析。这八份报告只有一个共同主旨，那就是我们希望藉由这些专业数据与洞悉为我们的行业以及行业相关人士赋能，帮助所有人更好地了解未来一年经济与行业走势，并能以更快更好的姿态适应其中。
就形势而言，我们认为今年报告中所提及的价格趋势分析必然是一个动态预测。
数据来源：《2023年商务旅行价格趋势》
今年年初时，我们所看到的全球业务全貌是疫情所带来的行业影响正在逐渐消退，全球出行限制也在逐步放宽，商旅人士也在陆续回归忙碌。但很快，变异毒株、地缘冲突、通货膨胀、人才短缺等诸多问题的出现又为行业带来了新问题。我们在我们的此次报告中一一罗列了以上的新关键因素。
根据《2023年商务旅行价格趋势》中所提及的关键因素，以及早些日子中我们发布的最新GBTA 商务旅行指数(GBTA Business Travel Index™,简称“GBTA BTI™”)，我们认为行业全面恢复仍有一段道路。但我们深信这些数据以及分析能为商旅精英们能在不确定的当下以及未来一年内，带来许多指引，并帮助他们清晰制定规划差旅项目以及差旅政策并为他们的差旅员工带来福祉。
关于《2023全球商务旅行价格趋势》报告
《2023年商务旅行价格趋势》报告基于以下：
-
统计模型由GBTA建立 -
评估模型来自于Avrio Institute对历史价格行为分析并预测航空、酒店和地面交通的未来价格 -
各地市场的专业知识和差旅行业知识来自CWT -
来自国际货币基金组织研究部、IATA、联合国和其他领军机构的信息
预测以CWT全球客户群的交易数据为依据，包括过去十年的客户差旅模式（已匿名处理）。统计模型中使用了关键宏观经济指标和各国指标（例如当前和预计的GDP增长率、消费者物价指数、失业率、原油价格），以及来自OAG和STR Global 的关键供给方驱动因素。所有航空统计数据源自始发地统计，并包括所有旅行类型。
▋ 关于全球商务旅行协会 (GBTA)
全球商务旅行协会 (GBTA) 是全球首屈一指的商务差旅和会议贸易组织，其业务遍及四大洲，总部位于华盛顿特区。GBTA的会员每年管理超过3,450亿美元的全球商务差旅和会议费用。GBTA为28,000多名差旅专业人士和125,000名活跃联系人组成并日益扩大的全球网络提供世界一流的培训、活动、研究、宣传和媒体内容。
▋ 关于CWT
CWT是一家交易量位于全球领先的国际差旅服务商，其经营实体遍及140个国家/地区，品牌历史逾150年。CWT希望藉由差旅管理项目在完善员工出行体验的同时，帮助企业实现差旅成本优化以及人员绩效提升，最终推进企业商业目标并释放无限可能。CWT是首家在华推出开放式API差旅管理平台的B2B4E（面向企业 · 服务员工）国际差旅管理服务商。不仅如此，CWT旗下还拥有专业的会议与活动的专属子品牌，帮助企业实现差旅与会议活动综合管理。
What's Ahead for the Global Business Travel Forecast
By Suzanne Neufang, CEO at GBTA
For the past eight years, CWT has partnered with GBTA to release an annual pricing forecast and analysis for the global business travel industry. With every report, our mutual mission has been to provide expertly curated data and insights to inform and empower our industry and professionals to better understand, anticipate and adapt to the economic and business travel landscape ahead.
This year's forecast proved to be an especially dynamic one, to say the least.
Source: 2023 Annual Global Business Travel Forecast
At the beginning of the year, the early outlook was that the impacts of the pandemic were waning, global travel restrictions were lifting, and business travelers were getting back out on the road and in the air. But new headwinds pushed into the headlines and our industry – from new variants to global conflicts, from rising inflation to supply chain and talent shortages, and more. And those headwinds are evident in this year's pricing analysis.
What's outlined in the Global Business Travel Forecast 2023 – considered alongside what we're seeing in early analysis from GBTA's latest upcoming Business Travel Index™ – show more challenges may be ahead on the road to recovery for the industry. We trust that now more than ever, this data and analysis will benefit business travel professionals who find themselves having to navigate new, and maybe even unprecedented, considerations in the present and into the coming year for their travel programs, policies, and travelers.
About the 2023 Global Business Travel Forecast
Projections in the 2023 Global Business Travel Forecast involved:
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Statistical models developed by GBTA -
Evaluation of historical price behavior and forecasts on air, hotel and ground categories by research, strategy and market and economic research firm, Avrio Institute -
The market-specific expertise and travel industry knowledge of CWT -
Information sourced from the International Monetary Fund Research Department, IATA, the World Travel and Tourism Council, the United Nations, and other leading organizations
Projections are based on anonymized transaction data from CWT's global client portfolio, including anonymized client travel patterns, over the past ten years. Key macroeconomic and per-country indicators, such as current and expected GDP growth, the consumer price index, unemployment rates and crude oil prices, were used in the statistical model, as well as key supply-side drivers sourced from OAG and STR Global. All air statistics represent point of origin and include all trip types.
▋ About GBTA
The Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) is the world's largest business travel and meetings trade organization representing the $1.4 trillion business travel industry. With operations across four continents, GBTA’s members manage more than $345 billion of global business travel and meetings expenditures annually. GBTA delivers world-class education, professional development, events, research, advocacy and media to a growing global network of more than 28,000 travel professionals and 125,000 active contacts.
▋ About CWT
CWT is a Business-to-Business-for-Employees (B2B4E) travel management platform. Companies and governments rely on us to keep their people connected – anywhere, anytime, anyhow – and across six continents, we provide their employees with innovative technology and an efficient, safe and secure travel experience. Every single day, we look after enough travelers to fill more than 100,000 hotel rooms, while our meetings and events division handles more than 100 events every 24 hours.
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