根据CWT以及全球商务旅行协会 (GBTA) 近日联合发布的2024年度《商务旅行价格趋势》显示，全球商务旅行以及会议活动价格将在2023年未来几个月以及2024年持续保持上升态势。
燃油价格上涨、劳工短缺、供应链深陷困境伴随着出行需求加速释放，这些关键因素导致商务旅行价格自2022年起急速飙升，远超去年同期《商务旅行价格趋势》所提及的价格预测。该报告采用了Avrio Institute的评估模型，并以CWT与GBTA双方所提供的已做匿名处理的真实数据并结合了行业公开信息建立了报告统计模型。根据此次年度报告预测，鉴于全球经济不确定性持续存在以及供给约束有所缓解，未来12-18个月内全球价格将保持上涨态势但上升空间趋于温和。
数据来源：CWT以及全球商务旅行协会(GBTA)联合发布的2024年度《商务旅行价格趋势》报告（注：报告与本新闻稿所提及的价格单位均为美元）
CWT首席执行官Patrick Andersen先生说道：“去年，由于供给约束矛盾显著加之出行需求爆发，使得商旅价格高于前期预测。展望未来，价格似乎正在趋于平稳，预计未来12到18个月的涨幅将温和许多。我们现在持续关注新增差旅成本。我们的重点仍然是帮助客户找到精准的战略和解决方案，最大限度地利用差旅预算，在帮助其履行环境、社会和公司治理承诺的同时，最大限度地提高差旅支出的投资回报率。”
“正如本研究报告所概述的，在可预见的未来，成本上升和价格压力显然仍将是影响商务旅行的一个重要关键因素。不仅如此，正如我们在过去几年中所经历的那样，我们可能还会继续看到不同垂直行业、业务部门和全球地区的不同价格波动。在商务旅行复苏的同时，需求、成本和ESG（环境、社会和治理）问题之间也应继续保持平衡”，GBTA首席执行官Suzanne Neufang女士说："因此，我们预测未来的波动会更大，我们的目标是提供这样的洞察力，帮助差旅买家、供应商、中介机构和财务主管持续了解、评估和调整他们的差旅战略。”
2022年，全球商务旅行预订航班的平均票价 (ATP) 大幅上涨，价格涨幅创历史新高。2022年的ATP同比增长72.2%，达到749美元，远远超过2019年的水平 (670美元)。虽然需求已强劲复苏，旅客数量迅速接近新冠大流行前的水平，这主要是由被压抑的个人旅游出行需求复苏驱动的，但航空公司的运力仍然受到劳动力短缺和供应链问题的制约。展望未来，尽管基数已经很高，但2023年和2024年的ATP增长率可能较为温和，分别为2.3%和1.8%。尽管如此，许多企业差旅管理精英现在与航空公司谈判的筹码减少了，因为他们的采购量仍低于新冠大流行前的水平。
与全球其他地区相比，欧洲、中东和非洲 (EMEA) 地区2022年的ATP最高，为855美元。较2021年增长了31.5%。预计今年的ATP将上涨2.9%，2024年将上涨2.2%。
不过，就同比增长而言，尽管中国的国际出行仍在缓慢复苏，但亚太地区的ATP在2022年仍同比增长了148.7%，达到567美元，是所有地区中增幅最大的。包括澳大利亚和日本在内的主要商务旅行目的地对已接种疫苗的旅客全面开放，并恢复了免签证安排。2022年，澳大利亚和日本的平均机票价格分别上涨了75.3%和79.3%，其中长途机票所占比例大幅上升。随着该地区航空公司（尤其是来自中国的主要航空公司）继续增加国际航线运力，供应量的增加应有助于缓解该地区的价格压力，预计2023年和2024年的旅客平均票价将分别上涨4.8%和2.7%。
与机票的ATP一样，全球酒店预订的每日平均房价 (ADR) 也超出了之前的预测，2022年将同比增长29.8%，达到161美元。虽然入住率一直居高不下，但劳动力、能源和餐饮成本也在不断攀升。事实上，包括伦敦、迈阿密和新加坡在内的全球多个城市都公布了2022年的最高ADR。与此同时，酒店建设仍低于新冠大流行前的高峰，造成供应紧张。由于可与之竞争的酒店数量减少，现有酒店可以在更长的时间内维持其定价能力，即使平均房价涨幅正在放缓。预计2023年的ADR将进一步上升4.3%，达到168美元，2024年将上升3.6%，达到174美元。
2022年，北美地区的酒店ADR增长率在所有地区中最高，同比增长33.8%，达到174 美元。由于全球经济放缓，预计2023年下半年和2024年该地区的入住率增长速度将同步有所放缓，预计2023年的ADR将增长4%，达到181美元，2024年将增长3.3%，达到187美元。
2022年，拉丁美洲的平均房价也大幅上涨了26.9%，因为该地区的一些国家经历了两位数的通货膨胀。现在，通胀似乎已经见顶，预计2023年和2024年的平均房价将分别增长9.1%和5.6%。
在新冠大流行期间，地面用车需求断崖式下滑，各租赁公司纷纷出售车辆，导致车辆租赁供应受到限制。随着业务的恢复，由于供应链问题，车辆的更换速度并不快，这主要是由于全球范围内汽车半导体的短缺导致了汽车价格的上涨。这些因素导致 2022年汽车价格同比上涨9.8%，预计今年还将上涨6.7%。预计2024年的价格增长率将降至2.1%。
线下会议和活动的强劲反弹超出了许多人的预期。获取客户和建立关系是关键的业务目标，而这些目标不容易通过虚拟方式实现。此外，企业为了激励和奖励员工，对奖励旅行的需求也异常强劲。事实上，CWT会议与活动部发现这些旅行的时间越来越长，频率越来越高，并预计这一趋势将持续下去。
2022年，每位参会人员的日均费用为160美元。预计2023年将增至169美元，2024年增至174美元。
疫后，活动的筹备时间仍然很短。不过，如果组织者希望将价格保持在合理水平，现在就应该以12个月的规划周期来布局2024年。与此同时，整合差旅和会议活动支出可为买家在价格谈判时提供更多筹码。
如需了解更多详细信息，包括地区细分以及对这些定价趋势的深入见解和分析，请在线查看报告全文，也可下载PDF版本。
本报告中的数据基于从2018年至今的7,000多万次售票航班、1.25亿多晚酒店客房预订和3,000多万次车辆租赁的数据。预测基于计量经济学和统计模型，特别是Avrio研究所开发的ARIMA模型。CWT人员和市场研究人员提供了深入见解。
2023年8月14日星期一(美国中部时间上午 9:45-10:30)，在2023年GBTA年会(达拉斯会议中心三层D大厅D2室)的研讨上，了解更多有关2024年全球商务旅行价格预测以及2023年和2024年未来趋势的信息。
全球商务旅行协会（GBTA）是全球首屈一指的商务旅行和会议行业组织，总部位于华盛顿特区，业务遍及六大洲。GBTA及其7,600 多名会员管理着价值1.158万亿美元* 的全球商务旅行和会议行业，并为其代言。GBTA和GBTA基金会为不断壮大的全球网络提供世界一流的培训、活动、研究、宣传和媒体内容。该网络由28,000多名旅游专业人士和125,000多名活跃联系人组成。
▋ 关于CWT
CWT是一家交易量位于全球领先的国际差旅服务商，其经营实体遍及140个国家/地区，品牌历史逾150年，2023年是CWT品牌进入中国市场的第20年。CWT希望藉由差旅管理项目在完善员工出行体验的同时，帮助企业实现差旅成本优化以及人员绩效提升，最终推进企业商业目标并释放无限可能。CWT是首家在华推出开放式API差旅管理平台的B2B4E（面向企业 · 服务员工）国际差旅管理服务商。不仅如此，CWT旗下还拥有专业的会议与活动的专属子品牌，帮助企业实现差旅与会议活动综合管理。
Avrio研究所帮助企业首席执行官和全球高管团队了解技术和经济变革将如何影响他们各自的行业、公司和业务模式。Avrio研究所与不同的公司合作，从初创公司到财富100强巨头，涉及科技、金融、娱乐、医疗保健、工业、媒体和广告等行业。在Shawn DuBravac博士的领导下，Avrio研究所帮助客户辨别技术、经济和行业趋势，以及全球范围正在发生的变革。
Global business travel and events costs expected to remain elevated through 2024, reflecting 'true new cost of travel'
Global business travel and events costs are set to climb higher through the remainder of 2023 and into 2024, albeit at a much more moderate pace than the exceptionally steep increases seen in 2022. This is according to the 2024 Global Business Travel Forecast, published today by CWT, the business travel and meetings specialist, and the Global Business Travel Association (GBTA), the world's largest business travel trade organization.
Rising fuel prices, labor shortages, and supply chain challenges, coupled with red hot demand, caused travel prices to skyrocket in 2022 – far surpassing some of the increases outlined in last year's forecast. Lingering economic uncertainty and a gradual easing of supply-side constraints are expected to result in more subdued price increases over the next 12-18 months, according to the report, which uses anonymized data generated by CWT and GBTA, with publicly available industry information, and econometric and statistical modeling developed by the Avrio Institute.
Source: CWT/GBTA 2024 Annual Global Business Travel Forecast (all pricing detailed within the report and this release is $ USD)
"A potent combination of demand and supply-side pressures propelled travel prices higher than expected last year," said Patrick Andersen, CWT's Chief Executive Officer. "Looking forward, prices seem to be levelling off with much milder increases projected over the next 12 to 18 months. We could now be looking at the true new cost of travel. Our focus remains on helping our customers find the right strategies and solutions to get the most out of their travel budgets, meet their ESG commitments, and maximize the ROI on their travel spend."
"As this research outlines, it's clear that rising costs and pricing pressures will likely continue to be a significant factor in business travel for the foreseeable future. And as we experienced over the past few years, we may also continue to see different pricing fluctuations across industry verticals, business sectors and global regions. While business travel continues to rebound, there will be a continuing balancing act among demand, cost, and ESG concerns. So, with a forecast ahead for more volatility, our goal is to provide insights like these to help travel buyers, suppliers, intermediaries and finance executives continue to understand, evaluate and adjust their business travel strategies," said Suzanne Neufang, Chief Executive Officer, GBTA.
The global average ticket price (ATP) of flights booked for business travel rose dramatically in 2022, experiencing record price increases. The ATP rose by 72.2% YoY to $749 in 2022, far surpassing 2019 levels ($670). While demand has recovered strongly with passenger numbers quickly approaching pre-pandemic levels, driven primarily by pent-up leisure travel demand, airline capacity continues to be constrained by labor shortages and supply chain issues. Looking forward, ATP growth is likely to be more modest at 2.3% in 2023 and 1.8% in 2024, albeit from an already high base. Still, many corporate buyers now have less leverage to negotiate with airlines, as their travel volumes remain below pre-pandemic levels.
At $855, the Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) region recorded the highest ATP in 2022, compared to other parts of the world. This represents a 31.5% increase from 2021. More modest price increases are expected going forward, with ATPs predicted to rise 2.9% this year and 2.2% in 2024.
However, in terms of year-over-year growth, the ATP in Asia Pacific climbed 148.7% YoY in 2022 to $567 – the biggest increase seen in any region, despite a lack of international travel demand from China. Key business travel destinations, including Australia and Japan, fully reopened to vaccinated travelers and resumed visa exemption arrangements. Average airfares rose 75.3% for Australia and 79.3% for Japan in 2022, with a sharp rise in the share of long-haul tickets. As airlines in the region – particularly the major carriers from China – continue to add more international route capacity, the increased supply should help ease price pressures in the region, with ATPs forecast to rise 4.8% in 2023 and 2.7% in 2024.
Like air travel ATPs, the global average daily rate (ADR) for hotel bookings exceeded earlier predictions, rising 29.8% YoY to $161 in 2022. Occupancy rates have been high, but so have labor, energy, and food and beverage costs. In fact, several cities across the globe including London, Miami, and Singapore, reported their highest ADRs on record in 2022. Meanwhile, hotel construction remains down from its pre-pandemic peak, creating supply constraints. With fewer properties to compete against, existing hotels can sustain their pricing power for longer, even though ADR gains are slowing. ADRs are projected to climb a further 4.3% in 2023 to $168, followed by a 3.6% increase to $174 in 2024.
North America saw the highest growth in hotel ADRs of any region in 2022, rising 33.8% YoY to $174. Occupancy in the region is expected to grow at a slower pace in the second half of 2023 and 2024 due to economic concerns, with ADRs forecast to rise 4% to $181 in 2023 and 3.3% to $187 in 2024.
ADRs in Latin America also rose sharply by 26.9% YoY in 2022, as several countries in the region experienced double digit inflation. Now, with inflation appearing to have peaked, and ADRs are expected to grow by 9.1% in 2023 and 5.6% in 2024.
Car rental supply has been constricted as companies sold vehicles during the pandemic when demand collapsed. As business returned, vehicles were not replaced at pace due to supply chain issues, largely due to a worldwide shortage of vehicle semiconductors which led to inflated vehicle prices. These factors have contributed to prices rising by 9.8% YoY in 2022, with a further 6.7% increase forecast this year. Pricing growth is expected to cool to 2.1% in 2024.
In-person meetings and events have rebounded more robustly than many had expected. Client acquisition and relationship building are key business goals that are not easily executed virtually. There has also been exceptionally strong demand for incentive trips, as companies seek to motivate and reward employees. In fact, CWT Meetings & Events has observed these trips becoming longer and more frequent and expects the trend to continue.
The average daily cost per attendee was $160 in 2022. This is expected to increase to $169 in 2023 and then $174 in 2024.
Lead times for events remain short in this post-pandemic world. However, organizers should now look at 2024 with a 12-month planning cycle if they want to keep prices at a reasonable level. At the same time, consolidating transient travel and M&E spend can give buyers more leverage when it comes to negotiating pricing.
For more detailed information, including regional breakdowns and in-depth insights and analysis on these pricing trends, please view the full report online where you can also download a PDF version.
About the 2024 Global Business Travel Forecast
The figures in this report are based on data from more than 70 million ticketed flights, over 125 million hotel room night bookings and more than 30 million car hires covering data from 2018 to the present. The projections are based on econometric and statistical models, specifically ARIMA models, developed by the Avrio Institute. Insight is provided by CWT personnel and market research.
Learn more about the 2024 Global Business Travel Forecast and trends that lie ahead in 2023 and 2024 during an education session at GBTA Convention 2023 (Room D2, Lobby D, 3rd level, Dallas Convention Center) on Monday August 14, 2023 (9:45 AM-10:30 AM CT).
The Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) is the world's largest business travel and meetings trade organization representing the $1.4 trillion business travel industry. With operations across four continents, GBTA’s members manage more than $345 billion of global business travel and meetings expenditures annually. GBTA delivers world-class education, professional development, events, research, advocacy and media to a growing global network of more than 28,000 travel professionals and 125,000 active contacts.
▋ About CWT
CWT is a Business-to-Business-for-Employees (B2B4E) travel management platform. Companies and governments rely on us to keep their people connected – anywhere, anytime, anyhow. Across six continents, we provide their employees with innovative technology and an efficient, safe and secure travel experience backed by our three core promises: to simplify corporate travel, to connect to unlock possibilities, and to move forward, together.
Avrio Institute helps CxOs and global executive teams understand how technological and economic shifts will impact their respective industries, companies, and business models. Avrio Institute works with a diverse group of companies - from scrappy start-ups to Fortune 100 giants - across technology, financial, entertainment, healthcare, industrial, media and advertising industries. Led by Dr. Shawn DuBravac, Avrio Institute helps clients discern technological, economic, and industry trends and transformations as they unfold.
