CWT x GBTA商旅价格前瞻 | 全球商务旅行与会议活动价格将趋于稳定，尽管经济不确定性仍在加剧

2025年7月21日，明尼阿波利斯讯 – 在经历了数年因疫情引发的价格波动以及旅行复苏所带动的价格飙升后，商务差旅价格自去年起已显现出逐步趋稳的迹象。根据商务旅行与会议管理专家CWT与全球首屈一指的商务旅行和会议行业组织——全球商务旅行协会（GBTA）联合发布的2026年度《全球商务旅行预测报告》显示，未来18个月内，差旅价格将进一步趋于稳定。

该报告采用CWT与GBTA提供的已做匿名处理的真实数据、行业公开信息，结合Avrio Institute开发的计量经济学和统计模型编制而成。报告预测，2025年2026年企业差旅项目中的航空票价、酒店房价和地面交通成本将呈现温和波动，反映出供需关系更为平衡，以及全球宏观经济增长的温和化。

航司运力、酒店房源以及汽车租赁车队正在逐渐赶上市场需求——尽管通胀压力、经济不确定性、政策变动以及地缘政治紧张局势仍是需要重点关注的行业风险点。

鉴于全球经济下行的风险不断上升以及贸易局势的紧张加剧，本年度的报告提供了两种预测情境：

• 基准情境预测：假设在疲弱但稳定的全球经济中，价格将保持常态波动；

• 全球经济衰退预测：倘若全球经济持续下行，则价格将发生潜在变动。

数据来源：CWT以及全球商务旅行协会(GBTA)联合发布的2026年度《商务旅行价格趋势》报告（注：报告与本新闻稿所提及的价格单位均为美元）

“根据今年的预测显示，商务差旅价格将进一步趋于正常化，这为企业差旅采购人员带来了真正的机遇，”  CWT首席执行官Patrick Andersen先生表示：“尽管经济不确定性仍然存在，但企业差旅采购人员正在逐步恢复议价能力，同时有了更多空间优化其差旅项目。不论是利用本土化价格趋势、通过更明智的谈判获取额外价值，还是重新构思活动形式进而提升影响力，现在正是采取积极策略的好时机。通过正确的策略，企业能够进一步延长差旅预算的使用期限，并实现更高的投资回报。”

GBTA首席执行官Suzanne Neufang女士补充道：“种种迹象表明，商务旅行价格将进入一个更为可测的时代，相较于疫情后的价格飙升期，如今的市场更加趋于稳定。然而，这一格局仍将受到通胀、供应限制和不断变化的旅行者期望的影响。好消息是，凭借更完善的数据和更清晰的趋势，采购人员可以更有信心地制定差旅计划。成功的关键在于持续关注市场、保持资讯灵活，使差旅决策与更广泛的业务目标保持一致。”

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  航空  

2024年全球商务旅行预订航班平均票价（ATP）上涨了4.8%，预计2025年将下降2.2%，2026年则将小幅回升0.4%。此趋势反映出运力的逐步提升、燃油与运营成本的缓解，以及出行模式逐步恢复正常。

然而，主要飞机制造商的交付延迟、维修与零部件供应持续短缺，正在阻碍许多地区的运力恢复，可能会对价格构成上行压力。若发生全球经济衰退，受需求下降和竞争加剧的影响，ATP在2025年可能大幅下跌5.7%，2026年再度下探1%。

地区要点

• 北美（NORAM）地区：受强劲需求、长途旅行和高舱位预订的推动，2024年北美地区ATP达到831美元，为全球最高，较上年同期上涨6.9%。预计2025年票价将出现调整，回落2.9%至807美元，2026年小幅回升1.7%达到821美元。
  

• 欧洲、中东和非洲（EMEA）地区：2024年增长4.8%，达到823美元，预计2025年和2026年将继续分别增长0.6%和2.1%。

• 亚太（APAC）地区：2024年增长2.9%，达到502美元，预计2025年将下降1.8%，2026年略微增长0.8%。

• 拉丁美洲（LATAM）地区：2024年增长1.7%，达到667美元，预计2025年微跌0.4%，2026年增长1.7%。

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  酒店  

受高入住率和有限房源等方面的影响，酒店价格继续表现强势。尽管央行正逐步降息，但居高不下的融资成本与严格的信贷标准限制了新酒店开发，导致供应增长低于长期平均水平。

全球平均每日房价（ADR）于2024年增长1.9%，达到161美元，预计2025年温和上涨1.2%，2026年进一步增长1.8%。若出现经济衰退，2025年ADR可能下降3.7%，2026年再度下降1.3%。

地区要点

• 拉丁美洲（LATAM）地区：受到强劲的本土旅行、酒店房源供应紧张以及高通胀的影响，拉丁美洲地区为全球酒店价格增长最快的地区。2024年ADR增长7.5%，达到100美元，预计2025年将进一步上涨7%，2026年增长5.7%。
  

• 亚太（APAC）地区：2024年增长4.5%，达到138美元。受到劳动力和建筑成本上升的影响，预计2025年和2026年将分别增长3.6%和2.8%。
  

• 北美（NORAM）地区：2024年ADR增长3.3%，达到188美元，预计2025年增长2.1%，2026年进一步增长1.6%。
  

• 欧洲、中东和非洲（EMEA）地区：2024年上涨1.3%，达到157美元，预计2025年和2026年的增长率均为1.9%。

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  地面交通  

经历了疫情期间的剧烈波动后，国际租车价格正趋于稳定，但仍旧高于疫情前水平。2024年日均租车价上涨6.1%，基准情境下，预计2025年将上涨2.9%，2026年进一步增长2.8%。若陷入经济衰退，2025年日均租车价可能下降1.3%，而2026年将进一步下降1.8%。

租赁车辆的供应情况已经显著改善。车队结构更加均衡，租车公司正逐步淘汰在供应链中断期间购入的高成本车辆。折旧成本降低和良性竞争有助于抑制进一步的价格上涨。

地区要点

• 北美（NORAM）地区：2024年该地区的日均租车价格涨幅最大，增幅为7.2%，达到41.60美元。预计2025年将进一步增长3.4%，2026年上涨2.6%。

• 欧洲、中东和非洲（EMEA）地区与亚太（APAC）地区：2024年欧洲、中东和非洲地区与亚太地区日均租车价格分别增长6.7%（达到52.50美元）和6.3%（达到54.30美元）。未来的价格增长将更为温和，预计2025与2026年每年的涨幅将维持在1.1%至1.8%之间。
  

• 拉丁美洲（LATAM）地区：该地区仍为全球日均租车价格最便宜的地区，2024年租车价格上涨3.1%，达到36.40美元。预计2025和2026年将分别增长1.4%和1.1%。

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  会议与活动  

2024年，会议与活动行业参会人员的人均成本上涨了4.5%，这主要归因于劳动力和生产成本的上升、通胀压力以及向规模较小、更具针对性、以体验为导向的活动转变。预计未来增速将放缓，2025年和2026年参会人员的人均成本将分别增长3.7%和2.4%，大致与G20经济体的通胀率保持一致。

关键趋势

• 随着企业越来越重视具备影响力的小型会议活动，固定成本将被分摊到更少的参会者身上，导致人均支出的增加；

• 对健康、可持续性和混合型会议的需求日益增长，加上优质的活动场地供应持续紧张，进一步加剧了成本上涨；
  
• 越来越多会议活动策划者开始考虑选择二线城市以节省酒店和场地费用开支。
  

由于成本压力短期内难以得到显著缓解，活动策划者需要重新审视会议活动策略——优化会议活动类型、举办地点与形式以及供应商合作关系，确保在预算范围内实现会议活动效果。

如需了解更多详细信息，包括地区细分以及对这些定价趋势的深入见解和分析，欢迎您在线查看完整版《全球商务旅行预测报告》。

▋ 关于《2026全球商务旅行价格趋势》报告

该报告现已发布至第十一版，由CWT与全球商务旅行协会（GBTA）联合编制。本报告中的数据基于7,000多万次售票航班、1.25多亿酒店间夜预订和约3,500多万次车辆租赁的全面数据集。预测基于计量经济学和统计模型，特别是Avrio研究所开发的ARIMA模型，并结合了CWT和GBTA分析研究人员的专业见解。这一详尽的分析捕捉了不断变化的趋势，并为2025年和2026年提供前瞻性的见解。

欢迎参加2025年7月23日，周三上午10时（北美山地时间）于美国科罗拉多州丹佛市举办的2025 GBTA年度大会的教育专题会议研讨，了解更多有关2026年全球商务旅行价格预测以及2025年和2026年未来趋势的信息。

▋ 关于全球商务旅行协会 (GBTA)

全球商务旅行协会（GBTA）是全球首屈一指的商务旅行和会议行业组织，业务遍及六大洲。GBTA及其9,000多名会员管理着价值1.48万亿美元的全球商务旅行和会议行业，并为其代言。GBTA和GBTA基金会为不断壮大的全球网络提供世界一流的培训、活动、研究、宣传和媒体内容。该网络由28,000多名旅游专业人士和125,000多名活跃联系人组成。

▋ 关于Avrio研究所

Avrio研究所帮助企业首席执行官和全球高管团队了解技术和经济变革将如何影响他们各自的行业、公司和业务模式。Avrio研究所与不同的公司合作，从初创公司到财富100强巨头，涉及科技、金融、娱乐、医疗保健、工业、媒体和广告等行业。在Shawn DuBravac博士的领导下，Avrio研究所帮助客户辨别技术、经济和行业趋势，以及全球范围正在发生的变革。

Global business travel and events prices set to stabilize through 2025 and 2026, amid looming economic uncertainty 

MINNEAPOLIS, 21 July 2025 – After several years of pandemic-induced volatility and recovery-driven spikes, business travel prices began showing signs of moderation last year. Now, prices are set to stabilize further over the next 18 months, according to the latest edition of the annual Global Business Travel Forecast released today by CWT, the business travel and meetings specialist, and the Global Business Travel Association (GBTA), the world’s largest business travel trade organization.

The report uses anonymized data generated by CWT and GBTA, with publicly available industry information, and econometric and statistical modelling developed by the Avrio Institute. It projects modest annual fluctuations in airfares, hotel rates, and ground transportation costs for corporate travel programs in 2025 and 2026. This reflects more balanced supply-demand dynamics and tempered macroeconomic growth.

Airline capacity, room supply, and car rental fleets are gradually catching up with demand – though inflationary pressures, economic uncertainty, policy shifts, and geopolitical tensions remain key watchpoints.

Given the looming threat of a global economic downturn amid rising trade tensions, this year’s report includes two scenarios:

• A Base Case Forecast, which assumes a business-as-usual pricing environment in a weaker but stable global economy, and
  

• A Global Recessionary Forecast, which outlines potential price shifts in the event of an economic downturn.

KEY FINDINGS

Source: CWT/GBTA 2026 Annual Global Business Travel Forecast (all pricing detailed within the report and this release is $ USD)

"This year's forecast shows encouraging signs that business travel pricing is normalizing further – and that's creating real opportunities for corporate travel buyers," said Patrick Andersen, Chief Executive Officer, CWT. "While economic uncertainty hasn't gone away, corporate travel buyers are regaining leverage and have more room to optimize their programs. Whether it's capitalizing on localized pricing trends, securing added value through smarter negotiations, or rethinking event formats for greater impact, this is a moment to be proactive and strategic. With the right approach, organizations can stretch their travel budgets further and deliver even greater returns."

"The indicators are pointing to a more predictable era ahead for business travel pricing, with travel managers navigating a landscape that's steadier than the post-pandemic surge," said Suzanne Neufang, CEO, GBTA. "However, that landscape will continue to be shaped by inflation, supply constraints, and evolving traveler expectations. The good news is that with better data and clearer trends, buyers can plan with more confidence. Success will come from staying informed and flexible, while aligning travel decisions with broader business goals."

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  Air  

After a 4.8% increase in the global average ticket price (ATP) in 2024, airfares are expected to decline by 2.2% in 2025, followed by a modest 0.4% uptick in 2026. This shift reflects a gradual increase in capacity, easing fuel and input costs, and a normalization of travel patterns.

However, aircraft delivery delays from major manufacturers—along with ongoing maintenance and spare parts constraints—are hampering capacity recovery across many regions, potentially continuing to place upward pressure on prices. If a global recession occurs, ATPs could fall more sharply – by 5.7% in 2025 and another 1% in 2026 – as demand drops and competition intensifies.

Regional highlights:

• North America (NORAM) recorded the highest ATP globally in 2024 at $831, a 6.9% year-on-year increase driven by strong demand and a shift toward long-haul travel and premium cabin bookings. Prices are expected to correct in 2025, falling 2.9% to $807, before rebounding slightly by 1.7% to $821 in 2026.

• Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) ATPs rose 4.8% to $823 in 2024 and are projected to increase a further 0.6% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026.

• Asia Pacific (APAC) saw a moderate 2.9% rise to $502 in 2024. A 1.8% dip is expected in 2025, followed by a 0.8% increase in 2026.

• Latin America (LATAM) ATPs increased 1.7% in 2024 to $667. Pricing is expected to remain relatively flat, dipping 0.4% in 2025 and rising 1.7% in 2026.

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  Hotel  

Hotel pricing continues to be underpinned by high occupancy rates and constrained room supply. Despite central banks slowly easing interest rates, elevated borrowing costs and tight lending standards are limiting new hotel development, keeping supply growth below long-term averages.

Globally, the average daily rate (ADR) increased 1.9% in 2024 to $161. Moderate growth of 1.2% is forecast for 2025, followed by a 1.8% rise in 2026. In a recessionary scenario, ADRs could decline by 3.7% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026.

Regional highlights:

• LATAM remains the global outlier for hotel price growth. ADRs rose 7.5% in 2024 to $100 and are forecast to increase by another 7% in 2025 and 5.7% in 2026. Strong domestic travel, limited new hotel supply, and high inflation are all contributing factors.
• APAC saw a 4.5% increase in 2024 to $138. Rising labor and construction costs are expected to drive further increases of 3.6% and 2.8% in 2025 and 2026 respectively.
• NORAM ADRs rose 3.3% in 2024 to $188, with further increases of 2.1% and 1.6% projected.
• EMEA recorded a 1.3% increase to $157 in 2024. More moderate growth of 1.9% is forecast in both 2025 and 2026.

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  Ground transportation  

After years of pandemic-era volatility, global car rental rates are stabilizing, though at a higher level than pre-COVID norms. Average daily rates rose 6.1% in 2024, with more moderate increases of 2.9% in 2025 and 2.8% in 2026 projected under the baseline scenario. In a recessionary environment, global daily rates could decrease 1.3% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026 as demand softens.

Vehicle availability has improved significantly. Fleets are more balanced, and rental companies are rotating out higher-cost vehicles acquired during supply chain disruptions. Lower depreciation costs and healthy competition are helping to contain further price increases.

Regional highlights:

• NORAM saw the sharpest increase in 2024 (7.2% to $41.60), and is expected to continue leading growth, with rates up 3.4% in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026.
  

• EMEA and APAC saw similar increases of 6.7% ($52.50) and 6.3% ($54.30) in 2024 respectively, with more modest growth ahead (1.1%–1.8% annually in 2025 and 2026).
  

• LATAM remains the least expensive region, with 2024 daily rates climbing 3.1% to $36.40, and expected increases of 1.4% and 1.1% in 2025 and 2026 respectively.

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  Meetings and Events  

The average cost per attendee at corporate meetings and events climbed 4.5% in 2024, driven by rising labor and production costs, inflationary pressures, and a shift toward smaller, more curated, experience-led events. A softening in growth is anticipated going forward: average per-attendee costs are projected to increase 3.7% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026, broadly in line with headline inflation rates across G20 economies.

Key trends:

• As organizations focus on higher-impact, smaller group experiences, fixed costs are being spread across fewer attendees, driving up per-capita spend.
  

• Growing expectations around wellness, sustainability, and hybrid capabilities—along with ongoing shortages in premium event venues—are adding further cost pressure.
  

• More planners are considering secondary cities where hotel and venue rates are lower.

With cost pressures unlikely to ease significantly, meeting planners will need to rethink event strategies – optimizing event types, locations, formats, and supplier relationships – to deliver impact within budget.

For more detailed information, including regional breakdowns and in-depth insights on pricing trends, please view the full Global Forecast report.

▋ About the 2026 Global Business Travel Forecast

Now in its eleventh edition, this annual report from CWT and GBTA draws on a comprehensive dataset of more than 70 million ticketed flights, 125 million hotel room night bookings, and 35 million car rentals. Projections for 2025 and 2026 are based on advanced econometric techniques, including ARIMA models developed by the Avrio Institute, and are enriched by expert insights from CWT and GBTA analysts. This detailed analysis captures emerging trends and provides forward-looking guidance for the travel industry.

For a deeper dive into the trends and forecasts outlined in the report, join us for an educational session at GBTA Convention 2025 in Denver, Colorado on Wednesday, July 23, 2025 (10:00 AM MT).

▋ About GBTA

The Global Business Travel Association (GBTA ) is the world's premiere business travel and meetings trade organization serving stakeholders across six continents. GBTA and its 9,000+ members represent and advocate for the $1.48 trillion global travel business and meetings industry. GBTA and the GBTA Foundation deliver world-class education, events, research, advocacy and media to a growing global network of more than 28,000 travel professionals and 125,000 active contacts.

▋ About Avrio Institute

Avrio Institute equips CxOs and executive teams with the foresight to navigate technological and economic disruption. From scrappy startups to Fortune 100 giants, Avrio partners with organizations across industries, including technology, travel and hospitality, finance, entertainment, healthcare, industrials, media, and advertising. Led by economist and futurist Dr. Shawn DuBravac, Avrio helps client interpret emerging trends and adapt their strategies as shifts unfold.

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