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路透社、麦肯锡评论文章:钢材将继续成为电动汽车主材

路透社、麦肯锡评论文章:钢材将继续成为电动汽车主材 华安钢宝利先进汽车板解决方案
2018-04-02
2
导读:Steel for Electric Vehicles continues to make headlines

It's nice to see that ArcelorMittal's messages about the impact of electric vehicles on steel are picked up by the media.

非常高兴看到安赛乐米塔尔关于电动汽车对钢铁影响的信息被媒体所报道。


Earlier this week, Reuters published an interesting article about how carmakers, including Tesla, prefer steel for electric vehicles. Interestingly, McKinsey published an article about this topic after continuing to team up with A2Mac1 for a Tesla Model 3 teardown. The article details the approach for mass market EVs and the considerations behind it.

这周稍早些时候,路透社发布了一篇有趣的文章,有关包括特斯拉在内的汽车制造商是如何偏爱用钢材生产电动汽车。有趣的是,麦肯锡在继续与A2Mac1合作解析了特斯拉Model 3后,发表了一篇关于这个话题的文章。本文详细介绍了电动汽车大规模市场化的发展途径及其背后的考虑。


From a steel perspective, the thought process mirrors the approach we have been promoting – steel is more cost-effective for lightweighting when it comes to mass market BEVs.

从钢材的角度来看,这一思考过程反映了我们的一贯主张——对于纯电动汽车的大规模市场化,钢铁才是轻量化更经济的选择。


Here's an extract from the McKinsey article:

以下内容摘取自麦肯锡的文章:


McKinsey

Yet the latest native EVs may be able to quickly catch up. For example, because of advantages in battery-pack advancements, native EVs now appear to switch from lightweight to more cost-efficient material solutions, such as steel elements in the body in white. They also seem to apply more rigorous despecification and decontenting (for example, in controls and air vents on the instrument panel) and to invest in mass-production processes, such as high-strength stamped steel instead of bent-pipe seat-structure designs.

然而最新的本土电动汽车或许能够迅速赶上。例如,由于在电池组发展上的优势,本土电动汽车现在似乎从轻量化转向更具成本效益材料解决方案,例如白车身的钢铁元素。他们似乎也更严格地去除差异化配置及缩减配置(例如,在仪表板上的控制键和通风口),并投资于大规模量产过程,例如运用高强度的冲压钢,而不是弯管座椅结构设计。


McKinsey - What a Teardown Of The Latest Electric Vehicles Reveals About The Future of Mass-Market EVs

麦肯锡:最新款电动汽车解析结果揭示未来电动汽车市场走向

© Copyright 2007 - 2018 McKinsey & Company


点击本文末尾“阅读原文”获取全文

Click on “Read more” at the end to get the full article.



Some of ArcelorMittal's messaging seems to have inspired Reuters in their article: "Aluminum wrestles with steel over electric vehicle market".

安赛乐米塔尔发布的一些信息似乎激发了路透社的灵感,体现在他们的文章“铝与钢铁在电动汽车市场上的较量”中。


For example in the following statement:

例如在以下的陈述中:

I think car makers are finding that as battery costs fall they can achieve their range requirement with an all-steel solution.

我认为汽车制造商发现,随着电池成本的下降,他们可以用全钢解决方案来达到他们的要求。



Reuters: Aluminum wrestles with steel over 
electric vehicle market
  

路透社《铝材与钢铁在电动汽车市场中的较量》


LONDON (Reuters) - When electric carmaker Tesla Inc. launched its first mass market model last summer, it sent a shockwave through the aluminum industry by largely shifting to steel and away from the lighter weight metal it had used in its first two luxury models.

伦敦(路透社) - 电动汽车制造商特斯拉公司于去年夏天推出首款面向大众市场的车型,将材料转为钢铁,而不再使用其在前两款豪华车型中使用的轻量级金属,这对铝材制造业是一轮冲击。


A Tesla Model 3 is seen in a showroom in Los Angeles, California, U.S. 

特斯拉Model3在美国洛杉矶展厅

January 12, 2018. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson/File Photo

照片来源 REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson


The switch by Elon Musk's Tesla to the heavier-but-cheaper metal highlights how steel is fighting back against aluminum, which had widely been expected to be the bigger beneficiary of the electric vehicle revolution.

埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)的特斯拉转向更重更便宜的金属突显了钢铁如何回击铝材,而后者已被广泛认为是电动汽车革命的更大受益者。


Aluminum had been seen as the key to offsetting the weight of batteries in order to extend the range of electric vehicles, crucial to increased consumer acceptance.

为了延长电动汽车的行驶里程,铝材已经被视为抵消电池重量的关键所在,行驶里程对提高消费者的接受度至关重要。


But as makers of battery-powered cars look to tap into bigger markets with cheaper vehicles - and embrace technological developments in batteries and components - many are increasingly looking to steel to cut costs. The price of Tesla's mass-market orientated Model 3 is around half of the £70,000 luxury Model S.

但随着电池动力汽车制造商希望利用更便宜的汽车进入更大的市场 - 并且随着电池和部件的技术发展 - 许多公司越来越倾向于采用钢铁来降低成本。特斯拉面向大众市场的Model 3的价格约为70,000英镑的豪华S型的一半。


"Before the aim was 'Let's get the [electric vehicles] developed', now it's 'Let's get them developed at the right price point,'" says Mauro Erriquez, a partner at McKinsey & Company in Germany who specializes in the auto sector.

“之前,我们的目标是‘开发电动汽车',而现在是‘让我们以合适的价位来开发它们'”,德国麦肯锡公司专门从事汽车行业的合伙人Mauro Erriquez如是说。


It is the latest tussle in a decades-long battle between steel and aluminum for market share among automakers, seeking to cut the weight of vehicles to help slash emissions and meet tough government pollution standards.

在长达数十年的汽车制造商市场份额争夺战中,这是钢铁与铝材之间最新的一场争斗,他们试图减轻车辆的重量,以减少排放,并满足严格的政府污染标准。


Steel is also winning back some market share among gasoline vehicles, such as the Audi A8. The latest model abandoned its heavy use of aluminum and shifted to a mix of steel, aluminum, magnesium and carbon fiber.

钢铁也赢得了奥迪A8等汽油车的一些市场份额。最新型号放弃了大量使用铝材,转而使用钢、铝、镁和碳纤维的混合材料。


The competition between the metals has intensified amid rapidly growing demand for battery-powered cars.

随着靠电池供电的汽车需求的迅速增长,金属之间的竞争也愈演愈烈。


Sales of electric and hybrid vehicles are due to surge to 30 percent of the global auto market by 2030, according to metal consultants CRU, up from 4 percent of the 86 million vehicles sold last year.

根据金属咨询公司CRU的数据,到2030年,电动汽车和混合动力汽车的销售额将达到全球汽车市场的30%,高于去年销售的8600万辆汽车的4%。


In China, the world's largest auto market, sales of new energy vehicles are due to grow by 40 percent this year to top 1 million vehicles, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.

根据中国汽车工业协会的统计,在中国这个全球最大的汽车市场,新能源汽车的销量今年将增长40%,达到100万辆汽车。


Tesla declined to comment, but in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission last month it said it designed the Model 3 "with a mix of materials to be lightweight and safe while also increasing cost-effectiveness for this mass-market vehicle".

特斯拉拒绝发表评论,但在上个月向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件中表示,该公司设计的Model 3 “混合使用了轻质和安全的材料,同时也提高了这款面向大众市场的汽车的性价比”。


Other makers of mass market electric vehicles that have also chosen steel over aluminum include Nissan Motor Co Ltd's  Leaf, the world's best-selling all-electric vehicle, and Volkswagen's e-Golf.

其他面向大众市场的电动汽车制造商也选择了钢铁而放弃了铝材,包括日产汽车有限公司生产的全球最畅销的全电动汽车聆风(Leaf)和大众汽车的e-Golf。


The e-Golf has 129 kg of aluminum and the Leaf uses 171 kg while Tesla's luxury Model S contains 661 kg of the metal, according to A2mac1 Automotive Benchmarking. A detailed breakdown was not available for the Tesla 3.

根据A2mac1 Automotive Benchmarking公司的统计,e-Golf使用了129公斤的铝材,Leaf使用了171公斤,而特斯拉的豪华S型则含有661公斤的金属。对于特斯拉3尚无详细的划分。



1
STEP CHANGE 大跃进


Aluminum is still expected to benefit greatly from the electric vehicle revolution, however, especially from hybrids because they have two engines.

我们预计,在电动汽车革命中铝材仍会大大受益,这种受益尤其来自混合动力车,因为它们有两个发动机。


Both the combustion engine block and transmission are typically made of aluminum while the metal is also often used for housing the battery and motor in electric vehicles, according to auto metals specialist AluMag in Germany.

据德国的汽车金属专家AluMag称,内燃机缸体和变速箱通常由铝制成,而金属通常也用于将电池和马达罩在电动汽车中。


And, because it is expected to be years before pure electric vehicles become widely used - in part due to the lack of power charging networks - the growth of hybrids in the interim is expected to benefit aluminum.

而且,由于预计纯电动汽车在被广泛使用之前还有数年之久 - 部分原因是由于缺乏充电网络 - 在此期间混合动力汽车的增长预计会使铝业受益。


According to CRU Consultant Eoin Dinsmore, demand for aluminum from electric and hybrid vehicles is forecast to increase ten times to nearly 10 million tonnes by 2030.

据CRU顾问Eoin Dinsmore称,到2030年,电动和混合动力汽车对铝材的需求预计将增加10倍,达到近1000万吨。


Aluminum was used in the first electric London black cab, which launched last year, spurring the reopening of a UK aluminum plant in Wales owned by Norway's aluminum producer Norsk Hydro NYH.OL.

去年推出的第一辆电动伦敦黑色出租车使用了铝材,这促使挪威铝业生产商Norsk Hydro NYH.OL所有的在威尔士的英国铝厂重新开业。


"We chose aluminum as a material as it is nearly three times lighter than steel in its raw form, and it absorbs twice as much energy in a crash," said Chris Staunton, chief engineer of body structures for the firm that developed the taxi for the London Electric Vehicle Company.

“我们选择铝作为材料,因为它的原始形式比钢轻近三倍,而且它在碰撞时可吸收两倍的能量”,为伦敦电动汽车公司开发出租车的公司的车身结构总工程师Chris Staunton说道。


Both Staunton's firm and the London Electric Vehicle Company are owned by China's Geely Automotive Holdings Ltd.

Staunton的公司和伦敦电动汽车公司均归中国吉利汽车控股有限公司所有。


Aluminium components for Jaguar cars made by Hydro Components UK Ltd. are seen at their factory in Bedwas, Walkes, Britain March 20, 2018.

Picture taken March 20, 2018. REUTERS/Rebecca Naden

位于英国沃克斯的工厂里,英国Hydro Components公司生产的捷豹汽车铝制组件

照片来源 Reuters/Rebecca Naden


2

BETTER BATTERIES 更好的电池


But aluminum remains more expensive than steel. Benchmark aluminum futures CMAL3 on the London Metal Exchange are around $2,050 per ton, more than three times the cost of LME steel rebar SRRc1 at $585 a ton.

但铝仍比钢铁贵。伦敦金属交易所的基准铝期货CMAL3约为每吨2,050美元,是LME钢筋SRRc1成本的三倍多,其价格为每吨585美元。


The price gap between the types of aluminum and steel used in autos was not as wide, but still represented significant savings by using steel, industry experts said.

业内专家表示,汽车中使用的铝材和钢材之间的价格差距并不大,但通过使用钢材仍然可节省大量的成本。


Meanwhile, stronger and cheaper batteries for electric vehicles as well as developments in the components that generate power and overall structural design have lessened the need for aluminum to cut weight to extend the range.

与此同时,用于电动汽车的更坚固和更便宜的电池以及发电部件的开发和整体结构的设计都减少了对铝材的需求,以减轻重量,延长行驶里程。


Since 2010, the cost of batteries have tumbled to as low as $114 per kilowatt hour from $1,000/kwh and are expected to drop further in coming years, according to AluMag.

根据AluMag的资料,自2010年以来,电池成本从1000美元/千瓦时骤降至114美元/千瓦时,预计未来几年还会进一步下降。


"I think car makers are finding that as battery costs fall they can achieve their range requirement with an all-steel solution," said George Coates, technical director for WorldAutoSteel, the automotive arm of the World Steel Association.

世界钢铁协会的汽车部门汽车钢联盟的技术总监George Coates表示:“我认为汽车制造商正在发现,随着电池成本的下降,他们可以通过全钢解决方案实现其产品行驶里程的要求”。


Improvements in the powertrain - the main components in a car that generate power - have also had a big impact.

动力系统方面的改进,即发电汽车内的主要部件,也产生了很大的影响。


The 2017 model of the Nissan Leaf extended its range by nearly 50 percent to 172 km compared to the 2011 version mainly by improving the powertrain, consolidating four separate systems into one, said McKinsey's Erriquez.

麦肯锡公司的Erriquez说,与2011年的车型相比,日产Leaf的2017款车型延长了近50%的行驶里程,达到了172公里,这主要是通过改进动力系统实现的,它将四个独立系统合并为一个系统。


3

MATERIAL MATTRIX 材料混合


At the same time, the steel industry has developed Advanced High Strength Steel products, which are stronger and lighter than normal steel, and importantly, cheaper than aluminum.

与此同时,钢铁行业已经开发出先进高强度钢产品,它比普通钢更结实、更轻,而且重要的是比铝材更便宜。


"(Steel) companies like ThyssenKrupp and ArcelorMittal, they're not going to just give up this market share. There will be a battle for the material," said Jost Gaertner, partner at AluMag.

“像蒂森克虏伯和安赛乐米塔尔这样的(钢铁)公司,他们不会放弃这个市场份额。这将会有一场材料争夺战”,AluMag的合伙人Jost Gaertner如是说。


Future models will likely contain a complex mix of materials, including various grades of steel, aluminum, carbon fiber, magnesium and plastics, automakers and consultants said.

汽车制造商和顾问表示,未来的车型可能会包含复杂的混合材料,包括各种等级的钢、铝、碳纤维、镁和塑料。


BMW, which used large amounts of costly aluminum and carbon fiber in its i3 and i8, told Reuters it was not planning to increase the use of those materials in future electric models.

宝马在其i3和i8中使用了大量昂贵的铝材和碳纤维,它告诉路透社,它不打算在未来的电动车型中增加这些材料的使用。


"There is no 'one material fits all' solution" for future electric vehicles, the German carmaker said in an email.

德国汽车制造商在一封电子邮件中表示:“在未来的电动汽车行业,没有‘一种材料适合所有车型’的解决方案”。


"We will continue to employ each material in a way and in a quantity which brings in its specific advantages."

“我们将继续以某种方式和数量使用每种材料,从而带来其特定的优势。”



扫描以下二维码,关注GONVVAMA微信公众号,了解最新资讯

Scan below QR code to access GONVVAMA WeChat, and stay up to date with the latest news and events in GONVVAMA. 

扫描以下二维码,关注VAMA微信公众号,了解最新资讯

Scan  below QR code to access VAMA WeChat, and stay up to date with the latest news and events in VAMA. 

点击“阅读原文”查看麦肯锡文章

Click on “Read more”, check out the full McKensey article.

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