8月份以来，人民币对美元汇率在波动中升值。

Since August, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has appreciated in fluctuations.

受美元走弱和中国国内股市上涨的推动，昨日人民币连续第四个交易日上涨，在岸市场一度上涨0.1%，至1美元兑7.1447元人民币。人民币兑美元汇率升至去年11月以来的最高水平。今年以来，人民币已升值逾2%。

Driven by a weaker dollar and a rise in China's domestic stock market, the yuan rose for the fourth consecutive trading day yesterday, with the onshore market rising 0.1% to 7.1447 yuan per dollar. The yuan rose to its highest level against the dollar since November last year. Since the beginning of this year, the RMB has appreciated by more than 2%.

分析认为，人民币兑美元汇率持续升值的原因，主要源自三个因素：

According to the analysis, the reasons for the continuous appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar are mainly due to three factors:

一是美联储降息预期升高拖累美元，二是中国股市牛市行情吸引外资流入，三是中间价持续升高，释放出较为明显的政策信号。

First, the rise in expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut dragged down the US dollar, second, the bull market in China's stock market attracted foreign capital inflows, and third, the central parity continued to rise, releasing a more obvious policy signal.

日前，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上发表讲话，暗示美联储可能在下月降息，这一鸽派降息信号被市场解读后，引发外汇市场大幅波动。

A few days ago, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a speech at the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole, hinting that the Fed may cut interest rates next month, which caused sharp fluctuations in the foreign exchange market after this dovish rate cut signal was interpreted by the market.

受鲍威尔讲话影响，美元指数跳水下行93点，跌近1%，创下4月以来单日最大跌幅。非美货币则一改此前承压态势，对美元大幅升值，大部分货币单日升幅达1%。Affected by Powell's speech, the U.S. dollar index plunged 93 points, down nearly 1%, the biggest one-day drop since April. Non-US currencies changed their previous pressure and appreciated sharply against the US dollar, with most currencies rising by 1% in a single day.

在此背景下，人民币汇率也出现明显变化。8月25日，人民币汇率中间价大幅上调160个基点，报7.1161；8月27日，人民币兑美元中间价继续上调至7.1108，中间价升值至2024年11月6日以来最高。

In this context, the RMB exchange rate has also changed significantly. On August 25, the central parity of the RMB exchange rate was sharply raised by 160 basis points to 7.1161, and on August 27, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar continued to rise to 7.1108, and the central parity appreciated to the highest since November 6, 2024.

德意志银行(Deutsche Bank AG)、瑞银集团(UBS Group AG)和道明银行(Toronto-Dominion Bank)等投行的分析师已将人民币兑美元汇率预测上调向7关口，理由是他们对中美可能达成的贸易协议持乐观态度。

Analysts at investment banks such as Deutsche Bank AG, UBS Group AG and Toronto-Dominion Bank have raised their forecasts for the yuan's exchange rate against the dollar to the 7 mark, citing their optimism about a possible trade deal between China and the United States.

9月被视为一个重要的观察窗口，如果届时美联储如期降息，中美利差收窄，将为人民币升值创造有利条件。市场普遍预期美联储最快将在9月议息会议上宣布降息25个基点。

September is seen as an important observation window, if the Fed cuts interest rates as scheduled and the interest rate differential between China and the United States narrows, it will create favorable conditions for the appreciation of the renminbi. The Fed is widely expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut at the September meeting at the earliest.

中国银行研究院主管王有鑫认为，短期来看，人民币汇率将继续呈现区间波动走势。国内经济运行稳中向好、资本市场的良好走势以及交易层面企业结汇增加和跨境资本流入增多等因素，将对人民币汇率带来稳定支撑。但美联储政策调整和美国贸易政策不确定性等不稳定因素在部分时点仍会对人民币汇率形成扰动。因此，短期仍将呈现区间波动态势。

Wang Youxin, director of the Bank of China Research Institute, believes that in the short term, the RMB exchange rate will continue to show a range-bound fluctuation trend. Factors such as stable and improving domestic economic operation, good trends in the capital market, and the increase in foreign exchange settlement and cross-border capital inflows by enterprises at the transaction level will bring stable support to the RMB exchange rate. However, unstable factors such as the Fed's policy adjustment and the uncertainty of the US trade policy will still disturb the RMB exchange rate at some point in time. Therefore, the short-term trend will still show range-bound trends.

王青预计，短期内人民币汇率还会处于偏强运行状态。长期来看，国际方面，伴随美联储恢复降息以及关税政策对美国经济冲击逐步显现，美元指数还将承受一定下行压力；但上半年美元跌幅巨大，后期也会有较强的抗跌韧性。国内方面，外部波动对我国出口的影响或逐步显现，而逆周期调节政策加码将确保经济运行基本稳定，这方面有充足的政策空间。由此，接下来人民币对美元汇率仍将以稳为主，持续升值或大幅贬值的风险都不大。

Wang Qing expects that the RMB exchange rate will still be in a state of strong operation in the short term. In the long run, internationally, with the resumption of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the gradual impact of tariff policies on the US economy, the US dollar index will also be under some downward pressure; However, the US dollar fell sharply in the first half of the year, and it will also have strong resilience in the later stage. Domestically, the impact of external fluctuations on our country's exports may gradually appear, and the increase in counter-cyclical adjustment policies will ensure that the economic operation is basically stable, and there is sufficient policy space in this regard. As a result, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar will remain stable in the future, and there is little risk of continued appreciation or sharp depreciation.