智者画语|巴菲特的投资哲学

序言

Foreword

钟兆民

James Zhong

世界上购买股票的最愚蠢的动机是股价在上升。

The  dumbest reason in the world to buy a stock is because it's going up.

如果市场总是有效的，我只会成为一个在大街上手拎马口铁罐的流浪汉。

I'd be a bum on the street with a tin cup if the markets were always efficient.

我从不尝试通过炒股赚钱，我只会买那些，即使证券交易所从明天起关门五年，我也可以持有的股票。

I never attempt to make money on the stock market.I buy on the assumption that they could close the market day and not reopen it for five years.

当市场下跌时，你轻易地将好东西打折变卖，但是一旦市场向上，再想买回来，难之又难。

Youcan always juice sales by going downmarket,but it‘’s hard to go back upmarket.

我们首先要确立公司收购的标准，这很像选择妻子。你必须确定她有所有你想要的品质，忽然有一天你遇见了这样的意中人，娶她为妻。

We should first establish the standard on company acquisition. It is much like to choose a wife. You must assure all the required traits she needs to have, and then once you meet such kind of a lady, you marry her.

本杰明·格雷厄姆说过：“长期看来，市场是个称重器。而短期看来，它是一个投票机。”我一直认为，由基本原理决定的重量很好测出，但是，由心理因素决定的投票很难评价。

Benjamin Graham said:In the short run,the market is a voting machine but in the long run it is a weighing machine.” I always believe, it is easy to measure based on fundamental principles, but it is very hard to decide based on psychological factors.

事实上，价值投资很简单，人们甚至不愿意去教授它；假设你拥有博士学位，而且常年学习如何运用数学方法去进行复杂的运算，再去学习价值投资就如同为了获得牧师资格去求学，却发现《摩西十诫》就是你最终所需要的。

The fact that value investing is so simple makes people reluctant to teach it. 

If you’ve gone and gotten a Ph.D. and spent years learning how to do all kinds of tough things mathematically, to have to come back to this--it’s like studying for the priesthood and finding out that the ten commandments were all that you ever needed.

人不是天生就具有这种才能的，即始终能知道一切。但是那些努力工作的人有这样的才能。他们寻找和精选世界上被错误定价的赌注。当世界提供这种机会时，聪明人就会敏锐地看到这种赌注。

It's not given to human beings to have such talent that they can just know everything about everything all the time. 

But it is given to human beings who work hard at it-who look and sift the world for a mispriced bet-that they can occasionally find one. 

投资人最重要的特质不是智力而是性格，你不需要有高的智商。你需要一种性情，不管是群居还是独处，你都能够做到从容自若，荣辱不惊。

The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect. You need a temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd or against the crowd.

 “关于未来的走势众说纷纭，形势明朗以后再采取行动不是更好吗？”你可能听说过这样的陈词滥调：“克制购买欲望，直到不确定因素消除再说。”在寻找帮助之前，要注意两个不让人乐观的事实：未来是不明确的；你花大价钱在股票市场买到的是舆论，不确定性实际上是长期价值购买者的朋友。

An argument is made that there are just too many question marks about the near future; wouldn’t it be better to wait until things clear up a bit? You know the prose: “Maintain buying reserves until current uncertainties are resolved,” etc.Before reaching for that crutch, face up to two unpleasant facts: The future is never clear and you pay a very high price for a cheery consensus. Uncertainty actually is the friend of the buyer of long-term values.

投资与投机之间永远只是一线之隔，尤其是当市场上的所有参与者都沉浸在欢愉的气氛中时便更是如此。再也没有什么能比不劳而获大笔金钱更能让人失去理性。有了这种经历之后，再正常的人也会像参加宫廷舞会的灰姑娘一样被冲昏了头，明明知道在舞会中多待一会儿，老鼠和它驾驶的南瓜马车将显现原形，却舍不得王子，继续把大笔资金投入这种投机而非投资的活动之中。虽然离显现原形的十二点越来越近，但他们还是舍不得错过这场盛大舞会的任何一分钟，所有人都打算坚持到最后一刻才离开。可问题在于：这场盛大的舞会中，所有的钟表根本没有指针。

The line separating investment and speculation, which is never bright and clear, becomes blurred still further when most market participants have recently enjoyed triumphs. Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money. After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball. They know that overstaying the festivities- that is, continuing to speculate in companies that have gigantic valuations relative to the cash they are likely to generate in the future -will eventually bring on pumpkins and mice. But they nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party. Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There's problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands.

如果你拥有喜诗糖果公司，你看着镜子说：“镜子，墙上的镜子，我今年秋天糖果该卖多少钱？”镜子回答：“再高些。”那就是一家好企业。

If you own See's Candy, and you look in the mirror and say, “Mirror, mirror on the wall, how much do I charge for candy this fall?” and it says, “More.” That's a good business.

一个杰出的企业可以预计到，将来可能会发生什么，但不一定知道何时会发生。重心需要放在“什么”上面，而不是“何时”上。如果对“什么”的判断是正确的，那么对“何时”大可不必过虑。

An outstanding enterprise can anticipate what may happen in the future, but not necessarily the exact time of happening. Only need to focus on "what" rather than "when". If the judgment for "what" is correct, then there is little to worry about "when".

我所想要的并非是金钱。我觉得赚钱并看着它慢慢增多是一件有意思的事。

It's not that I want money. It's the fun of making money and watching it grow.

寻找超级明星股，是我们通向真正投资成功的唯一机会。

Searching for the superstars - offers us our only chance for real success.

我不投资那些我看不懂的生意。我要找的生意必须符合三点：简单，容易理解；经济上行得通；诚实、能干的管理层。

Never invest in a business you cannot understand. So, I look for business is that simple and easy to understand, economic reasonable, with honest and competent management.