菲律宾和印尼正在努力加强矿业部门环境管理条例、提高矿业收入，这增加了两个国家矿山经营者的长期困难。
对于没有遵守先前未实施法规的矿业公司可能要面临处罚，特别是在菲律宾，总统Rodrigo Duterte已经表明反对采矿对社会造成的不良影响。
同时，在印度尼西亚，矿业公司可能面临将许可权从地方转移到省级机关，而且政府需要在采矿合同谈判中获得较大份额的收入。
在菲律宾和印尼，来自于符合环保要求的一个打击活动使得矿业公司正在面临着更多的曝光量。这两个国家很少强制实施环境法规，导致社会与采矿业的关系很紧张，两个国家的领导人已经承诺解决这个问题。在菲律宾，总统Rodrigo Duterte已经声明彻底清查所有采矿合同对环境和社会的影响，自他六月三十号就职以来，已经暂停了六份违规合同。虽然印尼总统Joko Widodo一直在减少对立，而且在他任职期间已经改善了国际矿商的经营前景，但是从2016年10月开始，矿业监督权从地方转移到省级机关，将会使已经建立的官僚程序复杂化，而且可能增加维权省长处罚的风险。
菲律宾
Duterte清查正在造成环境破坏矿业合同的计划，将进一步的减少经过长期努力以满足它全部可能性的矿业投资。数十年的环保丑闻，不相关的或者禁止的法规，差劲的基础设施和安全问题已经使人打消了在菲律宾投资的念头，全国估计有900万公顷储量的3%正在开发。采矿行业占国内生产总值的1%，矿业投资在2015年为924百万美元，下降到三年低点。
发展部门的计划通过2012年暂停的一个新的采矿许可被进一步阻碍，这个许可打算允许收入共享的改革。暂停最初计划持续了三年，但仍作为之前政府未能通过的改革保留在地方。新总统Duterte的管理支持更改许可，会增加政府矿业收入的份额。在菲律宾的矿业公司已经面临很多在东南亚的繁重税收制度，通过30％的企业所得税和几个特定采矿税，平均40% 的收入都要给政府。
此外，Duterte已经提出了政策，坚持实施更加繁重的环境法规，因此增加了合同取消和经济处罚的可能性。在他上任的第一天，他下令清查该国所有矿业公司的环境与公共不法行为，并强制取消所有被认为是破坏环境的矿山的许可权。
矿业和地球科学局局长Leo Jasareno在6月份表示，该国部分的44家金属矿业公司曾多次违反环保法律，然而在Duterte的前任总统Benigno Aquino的管理下， 仅仅收到了警告。新的环境部长Regina Lopez曾呼吁对所有露天开采的禁令，而菲律宾矿山安全与环境协会负责人Louie Sarmiento说，公司必须对项目各阶段有全面的健康和安全计划，并要求预留资金清理环境。政府似乎可能集中执行而不是改变立法，Duterte说他并没有打算修改现有采矿法律。
自从Duterte上任以来暂停国内经营的六座矿山，还是证明了他和矿业部长Lopez正在完成许下的承诺。六座关停的矿山中有三座是镍矿石坑，政府声称是影响了珊瑚礁和Palawan and Manicani的生态土壤。这些在新的管理下早些关停的不到一个月的矿山为政策实施的轨道提供了一个关键指标。特别是当环境部长已经规定，来自国际标准化组织专业认证的矿山将不受处罚保护。
到审计结束和违规者被指责时，该国的矿业公司将不会愿意投资新的项目，而且由于近几年利润下降可能会继续撤资。在2015年八月，由于在South Cotabato地方采矿的禁令，嘉能可将Tampakan金矿以290百万美元的价格出售。增加政府矿业收入份额的计划将进一步阻止了投资者。Lopez已经开始通过Aquino政府努力完成矿业合同的改革，要求从采矿项目中获得55%的净利润。什么时候这项法案应用到国会还不清楚。
印度尼西亚
在印度尼西亚，国内生产总值的12%依赖于采矿业，Joko Widodo总统正在推动环保，并将采矿许可权从地方转移到省级机关，对过去五年经历了重大监管变化的行业创造了新的不确定性。对于2016年10月的计划，在权利转移之前，激进的省级官员已经通过承诺打击违反环保行为的采矿项目来响应社会的不满。据JATAM所说，在当地政府的管理下，上百个许可权被授予，用来保护森林和附近居民使用的水源。
如果他们当地的运营被认为是违反环境或者社会利益时，这些改变可以视为现存授权企业的追溯目标。例如，在East Kalimantan省，印尼的煤炭储量占28%，而且有1000种矿物，包括世界上最大的金矿之一。省政府领导已经发布停止一项新的许可权，而且要惩罚在采矿之后没有恢复环境的企业。此外，KPK（反贪委员会）被设立，制裁10000个授权持有者没有支付恢复环境所需的资金，KPK首领Dian Patria正在推动追溯对自然资源支付价值百万的费用，但是据说，小矿主们—由于多年低商品价格已经处于压力之下---已经没有必要的资金。
新的环保法规增加了现存的挑战，即资源国家化以及选矿国家要求沉重化的风险。在2014年1月，Jakarta禁止很多未加工矿物的出口，从而迫使企业建立国内矿产加工设备，增加提取矿石的销售价值，由于收入下降，在2016年2月，政府表示撤回这项措施，令企业沮丧的是他们已经遵守了这些规定，而且投资建立了冶炼设施。资源国家化更进一步的适应和政策变化是明显的，政府与Freeport-McMoRan谈判扩张它的许可权到Grasberg矿，世界最大金矿和世界第三铜矿。Jakarta正在被要求矿业20%的股份，但在讨论中，Freeport要求太高了，以1.7bn美元出售一期款项的10%，而不是估计的630mn美元。谈判还在继续，但是持久的谈判将降低其他投资者的信心。
展望
在菲律宾和印尼，矿业公司将面临日益增长的环保合规义务。在这两个国家，当矿产行业在政治和管理上的监督在改变时，政府可能会利用新的符合规定的驱动程序作为在许可证更新谈判中的筹码。一些类似的趋势已经印尼的石油和天然气行业被证明，为了增加收入，或者控制授权集团的百分点掩盖政府的大意图。
在菲律宾，矿业部门的审计正在处理，取消合同由Duterte政府承担，这强调了对一些运营者的强制性。值得注意的是，尽管Aquino政府在国会两院加固了大政党联盟，但是考虑到他的失败，不确定Duterte是否将继续审查收入共享协议的条款。克服禁令、澄清采矿许可权的条款将对确保在该领域的投资至关重要。
在印尼，雅加达新的合规要求表明对几个主要的矿业公司进行惩罚，但是对矿产行业的过度依赖降低了这种可能性，尽管小的地方矿业公司可能面临停产，如果清理环境的资金太多的话。有些政府官员—如在East Kalimantan—将通过政治驱动快速实施改变，有影响地方的现存经营者的经验将对未来可能影响的企业提供重要指示。现有政府关系的审查为受改变影响的企业提供建议。
Philippines & Indonesia: Mining companies face increased compliance risks, further uncertainty
Both the Philippines and Indonesia are seeking to reinforce environmental regulations and increase revenues from the mining sector, compounding longer-term difficulties for mining operators in both countries.
Mining firms could face penalties for not complying with previously unenforced regulations, especially in the Philippines where President Rodrigo Duterte has spoken against the negative effects of mining on communities.
Meanwhile, mining companies in Indonesia could suffer from the planned transfer of licencing powers from local to provincial authorities as well as government demands for greater shares of revenue in mining contract negotiations.
Mining firms in the Philippines and Indonesia are facing increased exposure from an impending crackdown on environmental compliance. Both countries have poor records for enforcing environmental regulations, leading to tensions between communities and the mining sector, which the leaders of both countries have pledged to address. In the Philippines, President Rodrigo Duterte has issued a sweeping review of all mining contracts for environmental and communal impact and has already suspended six contracts for compliance violations since he took office on 30 June. Although Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo has been less confrontational in his rhetoric and some reforms under his presidency have improved the operating prospects for international miners, the transfer of mining oversight from local to provincial authorities in October 2016 will complicate already established bureaucratic procedures and could increase the risk of penalties by activist provincial governors.
The Philippines
Duterte’s plans to review mining contracts that are causing environmental damage will further undermine investment in a sector that has long struggled to meet its full potential. Decades of environmental scandals, incoherent or inhibitive regulations, poor infrastructure, and security concerns have deterred mining investment in the Philippines, where only 3 percent of the country’s estimated 9 mn hectares of mineral reserves are under development. The mining sector represents just 1 percent of GDP, and investment in mining dropped to a three-year low of USD 924 mn in 2015.
Plans to develop the sector have been further impeded by a 2012 moratorium on new mining licences that was intended to allow for reforms to revenue-sharing licences. The moratorium was initially planned to last for just three years, but remains in place as the previous government failed to pass the reforms. The proposed changes to the licences, which are supported by the new Duterte administration, would increase the government’s share of mining revenues. Mining companies in the Philippines already face the most burdensome tax regime in Southeast Asia, with an average of 40 percent of revenues transferred to the government, via a 30 percent corporate income tax and several mining-specific taxes.
Moreover, Duterte has proposed policies that stand to make the enforcement of environmental regulations more onerous, thereby increasing the likelihood of contract cancellation or financial penalties. On his first day in office, he ordered a review of all mines in the country for environmental and communal wrongdoing, threatening to cancel permits for any mines deemed to be damaging to the environment. Mines and Geoscience Bureau Director Leo Jasareno said in June that half of the country’s 44 metal miners had repeatedly violated environmental laws and yet had only received warnings under the six-year administration of Duterte’s predecessor President Benigno Aquino. New Environment Secretary Regina Lopez has called for a ban on all open pit mining, while Philippine Mine Safety and Environment Association head Louie Sarmiento said that companies must have comprehensive health and safety plans for all stages of projects, and are required to set aside funds for an environmental clean-up. The government appears likely to focus on enforcement rather than legislative change, with Duterte saying he has no plans to amend existing mining laws.
The suspension of six mines, which were operated by domestic mining companies, since Duterte came to office nonetheless proves that he and mining minister Lopez are following through with the promised compliance drive. Three of the six mines shut down were nickel ore pits, which the government claims were affecting coral reefs and the ecology of the soil in Palawan and Manicani. These early suspensions less than one month into the new administration provide a key indicator of the trajectory of enforcement of regulation, not least as the environment secretary has stated that mines with certification from the International Organisation for Standardization will not be protected from punishments.
Until the audit is completed and wrongdoers are censured, mining companies in the country will be reluctant to invest in new projects and may continue the trend of divestments seen in recent years due to declining profitability. In August 2015, Glencore sold the Tampakan gold mine for a record USD 290 mn due to a ban on opening mining in South Cotabato. Plans to increase the government’s share of mining revenues will further deter investors. Lopez has already started efforts to push through the mining-contract reforms begun by the Aquino administration, demanding as much as 55 percent of net revenues from mining projects. The timeline for when this bill will be put to congress remains unclear.
Indonesia
In Indonesia, which relies on mining for 12 percent of GDP, President Joko Widodo is pushing for environmental compliance and is transferring the authority to issue mining permits from local to provincial authorities, creating new uncertainty for the industry which has experienced major regulatory shifts in the past five years. Ahead of the transfer of power, scheduled for October 2016, activist provincial governors have already responded to communal grievances over mining projects by promising to crack down on environmental infractions. Under the administration of local authorities, hundreds of licences were awarded on land in protected forests and near sensitive bodies of water used by locals, according to the Network for Mining Advocacy (JATAM).
These changes could see firms with existing licenses retrospectively targeted if the location of their operations is deemed to contravene environmental or community interests. For example, the governor of East Kalimantan province, home to 28 percent of Indonesia’s coal reserves and some 1,000 mines including one of the world’s largest gold mines, has already issued a moratorium on new licences and vowed to punish companies that have failed to restore land after use. In addition, the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) is set to crack down on 90 percent of 10,000 licence holders for failing to pay the required reclamation funds for environmental recovery. KPK chief for natural resources Dian Patria is pushing for retrospective payment of fees worth hundreds of millions of dollars, but small miners – already under pressure due to years of low commodity prices – reportedly no longer have the necessary funds.
The new environmental regulations risk adding to the existing challenges of resource nationalism and hefty state requirements on mineral processing. In January 2014, Jakarta banned exports of most unprocessed minerals, thereby forcing firms to establish domestic mineral-processing facilities to increase the sell-on value of the extractives. The government then indicated it would backtrack on these measures in February 2016 as revenues declined, frustrating firms that already abided by the rules and invested in building smelting facilities. Further indications of resource nationalism and unpredictable policy-making were evident in the government’s negotiations with Freeport-McMoRan on the extension of its licence for the Grasberg mine, the world’s largest gold mine and third-largest copper mine. Jakarta is demanding a 20 percent stake in the mine, but argues that Freeport’s offer to sell the first tranche of 10 percent for USD 1.7 bn is too high, instead valuing it at USD 630 mn. Negotiations remain underway but the protracted dispute will damage the confidence of other investors.
Outlook
Mining firms in both the Philippines and Indonesia will face growing environmental compliance obligations. As political and administrative oversight of the sector changes in both countries, politicians may use new compliance drives as a bargaining chip in license renewal negotiations. Some similar trends have already been witnessed in the oil and gas sector in Indonesia, masking wider government intentions to increase revenue or controlling percentages of licensed blocs.
The mining sector audit that is underway in the Philippines and contract cancellations undertaken by the Duterte government underline the threat to some operations. It remains uncertain if Duterte will be successful in reviewing the terms of revenue-sharing contracts, considering the failure of the Aquino government, although it is worth noting that he has shored up alliances with large parties in both houses of congress that could secure the reforms. Overcoming the moratorium, and then clarifying the terms of mining licenses will be vital to securing investment in the sector.
In Indonesia, the heavy reliance on the mining industry decreases the possibility that the renewed compliance calls by Jakarta will manifest into severe punishments for major mining firms, though small local miners may face shutdowns if reclamation funds become too onerous. Some governors – such as in East Kalimantan – will be politically driven to impose changes quickly, and the experience of existing operators in affected provinces will provide an important indication of future trends that could affect companies. A review of existing government relations is advised for companies set to be affected by the changes.
