数据：金属矿业的残酷五月- 大数跨境

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数据：金属矿业的残酷五月

鑫海矿业视野

2016-06-03

导读：在对预期和基本面的不看好的情况下，大宗商品在三年的下滑之后在2016年的前四个月给矿业公司带来了一个令人欢迎的提振。然而五月售出并远离市场是股票市场上最古老的格言之一，2016年采矿业尤其如此。

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在对预期和基本面的不看好的情况下，大宗商品在三年的下滑之后在2016年的前四个月给矿业公司带来了一个令人欢迎的提振。

然而五月售出并远离市场是股票市场上最古老的格言之一，2016年采矿业尤其如此。由于美国整体股票市场横盘和原油继续反弹，矿业股，金属和矿物价格月内已敲定。

五月铜的惨淡表现消灭了年初至今的涨幅。其他工业金属的涨势2016年也停滞很少有交易，除了钼继续略高于历史最低点$ 10,000，去年袭击攀升。

贵金属今年涨势很猛，但是五月份由于美元走强和鹰派言论的影响，五月份价格下降超过6％。白银反弹 - 这是今年表现最佳的贵金属 - 五月同样被遏制。白银自2015年一月份到四月底一直上涨以来第一次下降超过了11%。

主要矿业股的抛售是更加残酷的。淡水河谷和包括加拿大泰克资源，顶级的铜生产商自由港 - 麦克莫兰铜金公司和瑞士的嘉能可之内的许多公司都受到了影响。金属价格弱化造成了前五名的多元化矿业公司 - 必和必拓，力拓，淡水河谷，嘉能可和美国盎格鲁广泛的抛售，损失了 410亿美元市场价值。

Against expectations and in some instancesin defiance of fundamentals, commodities managed to climb a wall of worry overthe first four months of 2016 giving mining companies a welcome boost afterthree years of declines.

Sell in May and go away is one of theoldest adages on the equities market and it was especially true for the miningsector in 2016.

While broader US share markets moved sideways and crude oilcontinued to rally, mining stocks, metals and mineral prices were hammeredduring the month.

Iron ore was trading back below $50 a tonneon Tuesday after a speculative bubble in Chinese derivatives in the steelmakingraw material popped during the month.

After peaking near $70 mid-April, ironore has managed to hold onto 16% gains for the year however. Coking coal cameclose to triple digits in April, but fell back to the early $80s by the end ofthe month and is now flat for 2016.

Weakening metals prices caused a broad-based sell-off with the top fivediversified mining companies by output – BHP, Rio Tinto, Vale, Glencore and Anglo-American– losing a collective $41 billion in market value.

Copper's dismal performance in May wipedout year-to-date gains for the red metal. The 2016 rally in other industrialmetals also stalled with the exception of little-traded molybdenum whichcontinues to climb from historic lows just above $10,000 struck last year.

Zinc is holding up the best and stillsports a more than 18% rise year-to-date. Tin lost more than a $1,000 in May,but technically remains in a bull market after rising 21.6% from its Januarylows.

Ever volatile nickel is now also backinnegative territory for the year despite a jump this week following news of apossible strike at South32's Cerro Matoso mine in Colombia, theworld's secondlargest ferro-nickel mine.

Precious metals have had a great year, butin May the gold price succumbed to a stronger dollar and a hawkish Feddeclining more than 6%.

The rally in silver – the year's best performingprecious metal – was aslo severely curbed in May.

Silver is now down more than11% after scaling $18 an ounce for the first time since January 2015at the end of April. Palladium's move back above $600 an ounce has also beencut short and the precious metal is down year-to-date.

Spot uranium prices continue to strugglenear decade lows below $28 a pound and U3O8 has declined by more than 20% in2016. Potash has also been punished by ample supply with free-on-board pricesin Vancouver falling $30 a tonne to $239, down 11% for the month.

Source: Steel Index, LME, YCharts, Comex, Nymex, UX, Infomine, Potashcop

Among the major mining stocks the sell-offhas been even more brutal led by Vale and other former high-flyers includingCanada's Teck Resources, top copper producer Freeport-McMoRan and Swiss tradinggiant Glencore.

Rio de Janeiro-based Vale is the world'snumber one iron ore producer and number two in nickel, but its problems havebeen compounded by the fallout from a dam burst at its jointly held Brazilianiron ore mine in November.

50-50% owners Vale and BHP-Billiton are being suedfor more than $40 billion in damages on top of a $6 billion-plus settlementwith the federal government.

The weakening price environment forcommodities caused a broad-based sell-off of mining stocks in May, with the topfive diversified mining companies by output – BHP, Rio Tinto, Vale, Glencoreand Anglo-American – losing a collective $41 billion in market value over thecourse of month.

Source: Steel Index, LME, YCharts, Comex, Nymex, UX, Infomine, Potashcop

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