黄金和白银价格在七月的第一个星期气势就消耗殆尽 ， 并一直调整走低至今。深度回调似乎是一个现实的期望，但贵金属都出现弹性强的迹象。这里有七个迹象属于对贵金属不利的因素，但几乎没有任何影响。
1）提高保证金要求 - 芝加哥商品交易所七月期间提高了期货市场上黄金和白银的保证金要求。提高保证金使得帐面投机者要保持自己的仓位变得更昂贵。这种提高保证金的要求往往导致价格急剧和突然下降。
2）期货接近到期 - 期货合约就要到期了：7月27日黄金到期和7月26日白银到期。黄金和白银的价格到期前急剧下降是一个相当常见的历史格局。许多人认为帐面黄金操纵者使用杠杆、虚假投标和采用其他手段让价格暴跌，使他们能够将空头头寸平仓获利。
3）交易者持仓报告看空 - COT显示，投机性黄金多头在一个多月以来仓位首次出现下跌，而空头已经连续三个星期增加了持仓。商业性交易商空头持仓接近历史最高水平，是其持有的多头头寸的2.5倍。COT数据周五公布后，我们将得到更新的数据，但预期是，这一趋势将在最近一段时间继续延续。
4）GLD库存量下降显示有获利了结 – 赎回ETF速度加快，特别是在今年上半年已经产生巨额利润的投机者和贸易商。他们不对贵金属市场长期走势或有任何哲学理由看涨来进行投资。他们不害怕股??市或美元崩溃。他们顺势买入，现在的势头已经放缓，他们很可能会兑现。这在GLD ETF库存在过去的几个星期下降中肯定是显而易见的。
英国脱欧投票表决后黄金ETF基金持金量变化
5）对英国脱欧的恐惧很快衰落 –
在英国意想不到的'假'投票结果出来后，英国脱欧占据了媒体的头条。分析家们预测会由盛转衰，但金融末日从未实现。英国离开欧盟的决定有助于推动黄金价格在短期内走高，但投资者对英国脱欧的影响，及投票后出现的避险需求的担忧逐渐归于平静。
6）美元指数走高 - 美元兑日元上升。事实上，近两个月来美元指数从92.62上涨到97.26。目前它是在97.46。这通常是黄金和白银看跌迹象，但这个反向关系在强大的多头市场中可以打破。
美元指数走势
7）弱季节性 - 六月和七月通常是贵金属表现最差的两个月份。他们依次是六月、四月、三月和七月。
金价季节表现
尽管存在诸多不利因素，黄金短期仍显示强势
尽管有这一切，金价从2016年高点算起只下跌了55美元到1，320美元（4％）。白银始终是波动更大，通常上升比黄金更快，下降的速度也快。7月4日短暂高于21美元后，白银价格下跌了1.65美元（7.7％）至19.58美元。
要注意，重要的是这两种金属仍保持在前期技术阻力水平理想地转换而成的支持位以上。黄金必须守稳1305美元，白银高于19.28美元。只要它们保持在这些水平上方，我们看涨后市保持不变。
更加有效的表现实力的基本信号是矿业股。矿业股指数提供了超过四倍的杠杆作用，上涨了110％，而黄金仅上涨了25％。过去两周（金-4％，银-8％）的回调过程中，矿业股指数仅下跌了3％。有利上攻和保护下行？我随时关注这个风险/回报指标。
在今后的日子里，黄金和白银价格继续下滑是完全可能的，尤其是期货即将到期。但2016年迄今为止，回调的温和见证了黄金是是多么富有弹性。
当价格修正时，买家正在加紧积极抄底，而不是因害怕而减仓，从而加速了下跌。近5年来第一次，黄金投资者抱有信念，黄金的新一轮牛市周期才刚刚开始。
尽管有上述所有的看跌不利因素，金价受益于变得非常超卖，和在2015年的非常被低估。它也受益于对美联储快速提高利率的预期下降。来自央行和投资者的实物需求依然强劲。
虽然英国脱欧没有导致直接经济危机，欧洲银行仍然高度杠杆化，并有崩溃的风险，地缘政治紧张度仍高，对西方目标恐怖袭击的可能性不断增加，货币战争不断升级和随着中国经济降温，亚洲财富企图逃避资本管制。股市由各种不同的数据点显示超买信号，这增加了对黄金之类的避险资产的需求。最后，对美国的有争议的和不可预测的选举季节寻求避险支撑金价。荷兰银行日前提出，特朗普当选总统可能至少推动黄金价格涨500美元。
我们正在进入贵金属最好的季节，和所有上述元素结合的表现显示，价格可能会在目前回调筑底后继续走高。尽管在2016年矿业股票出现了令人难以置信的上涨，相对于贵金属它们依然被低估，并应持续相当一段时间提供强有力的杠杆。
因此，我们认为所有低位应作为买入机会。这说易做难，因为大多数投资者都太害怕抄底，并最终在靠近顶部买入。相反，成功的投资者在身边的每一个人都在有血的街道上卖出的时候鼓起刚毅买进。这是因为我们应用黄金股票牛市的逆势思维，它帮助我们今年迄今为止建立矿业类股的投资组合，上升超过100％。
7 signs that the gold market remains resilient
Gold and silver prices ran out of momentum during the first week of July and have been drifting lower ever since. A deeper correction seems like a realistic expectation, but precious metals are showing strong signs of resiliency. Here are seven forces that should be creating headwinds for precious metals, but are barely having any impact.
1) Increased Margin Requirements – The CME raised margin requirements in the futures market for both gold and silver during July. Raising margins makes it more expensive for paper speculators to keep their positions. This type of increase in margin requirements often results in a sharp and sudden drop in the price.
2) Futures Expiration Approaching – The expiration of the futures contract is coming up on July 27 for gold and July 26 for silver. There is a fairly strong historic pattern of gold and silver prices dropping sharply just prior to expiration. Many believe paper manipulators use leverage, false bids and employ other tactics to send prices tumbling so that they can cover and profit from their short positions.
3) Bearish Commitment of Traders Report – The COT showed that speculative gold longs decreased their positions for the first time in more than a month, while shorts increased their own positions for the third week in a row. Short positions by commercial traders are near record levels and almost 2.5 times their long positions. We will get a better picture when COT data is released on Friday, but the expectation is that this trend continued throughout the most recent period.
4) Declining GLD Inventories Suggest Profit Taking – The GLD ETF has accelerated, especially by speculators and traders that have generated huge profits in the first half of the year. They do not have a bullish long-term view of the precious metals market or any philosophical reasons to be invested. They do not fear a crash in the stock market or dollar crash. They just bought the momentum and now that the momentum has slowed, they are likely cashing out. This is certainly evident in the declining GLD ETF inventories over the past few weeks.
5) Brexit Fears Fading Fast – Brexit dominated headlines following the unexpected ‘leave’ vote from the United Kingdom. Analysts were predicting gloom and doom, but financial armageddon never materialized. The decision for the UK to leave the EU helped to push the gold price higher in the short term, but investor concerns about the impact of Brexit and demand for safe haven following the vote have been muted.
6) Rising USD Index – The dollar is rising. In fact, the USD index has strengthened from 92.62 to 97.26 in the past two months. It is currently at 97.46. This is usually a bearish sign for gold and silver, but the inverse relationship can break during strong bull markets.
7) Weak Seasonal Months – June and July are typically two of the worst performing months for precious metals. In order, they are June, April, March and July.
Gold Shows Remarkable Short-Term Strength Despite Headwinds
Despite all of this, the gold price is down just $55 (4%) from its 2016 high to $1,320. Silver is always more volatile, typically rising faster than gold and falling faster as well. The silver price is down $1.65 (7.7%) to $19.58, after its brief spike above $21 shortly after the July 4th fireworks.
It is important to note that both metals remain above prior technical resistance levels that will ideally turn into support. Gold must hold above $1,305 and silver above $19.28. As long as they remain above these levels, our bullish outlook remains intact.
The underlying signals of strength are even more potent for mining stocks. The mining stocks index has offered leverage of more than four times, advancing 110% vs. gold’s advance of 25%. Yet during the pullback of the past two weeks (gold -4% and silver -8%), the mining stocks index is down just 3%. Leverage to the upside and protection to the downside? I’ll take that risk/reward mix any day.
It is entirely possible that gold and silver prices continue slipping in the days ahead, especially with futures expiration around the corner. But the mildness of the pullbacks witnessed thus far in 2016 are a testament to just how resilient gold has been.
When the price corrects, buyers are stepping up to buy the dips aggressively, rather than panic out of their positions and hasten the slide. There is a certain conviction amongst gold investors, for the first time in nearly 5 years, that gold’s new bull cycle is just getting started.
Despite all of the bearish short-term headwinds mentioned above, gold is benefiting from becoming very oversold and undervalued at the end of 2015. It is also benefiting from significantly reduced expectations of how fast and far the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates. Physical demand remains robust, both from central banks and investors.
While Brexit didn’t lead to an immediate economic crisis, European banks remain highly leveraged and at risk of a collapse, geopolitical tensions remain high, terrorist attacks on Western targets are increasing, currency wars and escalating and Asian wealth is attempting to escape capital controls as China’s economy cools. Stock markets are flashing overbought signals from a variety of different data points, which increases demand for safe havens such as gold. Lastly, look for a contentious and unpredictable election season in the United States to be supportive of the gold price. ABN Amro recently suggested that a Trump presidency could push the gold price at least $500 higher.
We are heading into the best performing season for precious metals and all of these above elements combined suggest that prices are likely to continue higher after the current pullback bottoms. While mining stocks have experienced a incredible run in 2016, they remain undervalued relative to the metals and should continue offering strong leverage for quite some time.
Therefore, we believe that all dips should be used as buying opportunities. This is easier said than done, as most investors are too fearful to buy the dips and end up buying near tops. Instead, successful investors muster the fortitude to buy when everyone around them is selling and there is blood in the streets. This is the contrarian mindset that we employ at Gold Stock Bull and it has helped us build a portfolio of mining stocks that are up over 100% year to date.
