CAFX 8月27日市场更新 (中英)

今日市场

周三（8月25日），美元指数本周连续三日录得下跌，盘中一度尝试突破93关口，收盘报92.83；美元兑大部分G10货币录得下跌。10年美国国债收益率上涨，收盘报1.3490%。美国股市上涨，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨0.2%，标普500上涨0.3%，纳斯达克指数上涨0.2%。商品方面，美国原油以及布伦特油价格录得上涨，布伦特原油价格涨幅1.6%，报72.25美元/桶；铁矿石价格录得上涨，涨幅1.7%，收盘报148.66美元/吨；黄金价格录得下跌，收盘报1791.20美元/盎司。

昨日市场数据清淡，美国数据关注到7月耐用品订单月率，实际值录得-0.1%，预期-0.3%，前值0.9%。目前市场投资者主要关注接下来的杰克村霍尔经济研讨会。美联储主席鲍威尔预计将在周五进行演讲。上周，新西兰央行在因疫情而封城的影响之下，意外地一改此前鹰派言论而维持利率不变；目前全球在变异病毒的影响之下，投资者将关注美联储主席鲍威尔如何权衡疫情和缩减购债计划。

今日经济数据关注，美国第二季度实际GDP年化季率，美国第二季度消费者支出年化季率，美国第二季度核心PCE物价指数年化季率，美国截至8月21日当周初请失业金人数。

今日事件关注，欧洲央行公布7月货币政策会议纪要；杰克逊霍尔年度央行研讨会。

DATA

AU Q2 Private Capital Expenditure : 4.4% v. 2.7% exp. 

EU August German GFK Consumer Climate : -1.2 v. -0.5 exp.          

US Q2 Prelim GDP & GDP Price Index : 6.6% & 6.1% v. 6.7% & 6.0% exp.   

US Unemployment Claims : 353K v. 345K exp. 

AUD and NZD both appreciated after last week’s strong sell-off as the risk appetite slowly fading away and the Jackson Hole meeting in the U.S. The Australian Q2 private capital expenditure is better than expected (4.4% vs. 2.75 exp.), suggesting private companies are ready to increase their investment in the second half of 2021, however, the rising Delta variant cases in NSW still cause concerns to the investors. The AUD and NZD are the two worst-performing currencies of the session as the RBA is unlikely to raise the interest rate due to the COVID-19 delta outbreak. The hawkish wing of the Federal Reserve urges the central bank to begin reducing bond purchases. ‘We probably don’t need the asset purchases at this point.’, the St. Louis Fed’s James Bullard said and also suggested that rising home prices are a concern. Several Fed officials including Bullard, Kansas City Fed’s George, and Dallas Fed’s Kaplan, downplayed the impact of Delta variant in separate interviews. They indicated that the economic effect of the virus is limited and the Fed is making steady progress towards a plan to taper the bond purchase. More than 2 million treasury options in the September 10-year contracts, which account for 63% of total options open interest in Treasuries, expire by the end of this Friday. This may raise the prospect for the volatility of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on the economic outlook on Saturday. The U.S. corporate profit raised to a fresh record high in the second quarter, boosted by robust demand and higher price, indicating that an anticipated slowdown in economic growth in this quarter is caused by temporary rising Delta cases. Profit from current production increased by a 9.2% quarterly rate, GDP increased at a 6.6% unannualized rate for April to June. Customer spending shows a cooling sign.

Major moves in the market

Stocks

• The     S&P 500 dipped 0.6%

• Nasdaq     100 futures increased 0.1%.

• The     Nasdaq 100 fell 0.6%

• Nikkei     225 futures were steady

• S&P/ASX     200 futures dipped 0.1%

• Hang     Seng futures were little changed

Currencies

• The     Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was flat

• The     euro was at $1.1756

• The     Japanese yen was at 110.06 per dollar

• The     offshore yuan was at 6.4830 per dollar

Bonds

• The yield on 10-year Treasuries     was up 1 basis point at 1.35%

Commodities

• West     Texas Intermediate crude was at $67.86 a barrel, up 0.7%

• Gold     was at $1,792.98 an ounce

Upcoming data:

• AU July     Retail Sales : -2.6% exp.  

• EU July     German Import Prices : 1.2% exp. 

• US July     Core PCE Price Index : 0.3% exp.                

• US     August Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment :70.9 exp.

• US     August Revised UoM Inflation Expectations :4.6% prev.   

• US Fed     Chair Powell to speak (Sat 28 Aug 12am AEST)  

• US     Jackson Hole Symposium (Sat 28 Aug)